UGA

We rate United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) as a Hold with a composite score of 56.3/100 at a current price of $71.37. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (85th percentile) and stability (65th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (37/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

United States Gasoline Fund, LP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 56.3/100 places it at rank #1113 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, United States Gasoline Fund, LP is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 138%, though momentum at the 51th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 93% (+75.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 92.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 93%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $71.37, United States Gasoline Fund, LP is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

Valuation multiples are not available for this company, which limits our ability to assess relative pricing. We rely more heavily on factor-based valuation signals in such cases.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to United States Gasoline Fund, LP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.35, conservative leverage (0% D/E), and a stability factor in the 65th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.35 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 65th percentile and quality factor at the 85th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (0% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (65th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate United States Gasoline Fund, LP's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-16.9%), weak asset returns (ROA -16.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — United States Gasoline Fund, LP significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, United States Gasoline Fund, LP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.3/100 (rank #1113 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (37/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 50/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on United States Gasoline Fund, LP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.