TOL

We rate Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) as a Buy with a composite score of 68.7/100 at a current price of $160.35. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #131 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (92th percentile) and quality (83th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (37th percentile) and momentum (63th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (60/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Toll Brothers, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#4 of 50) within the Construction sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 68.7/100 places it at rank #131 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $13.0B market capitalization, Toll Brothers, Inc. operates at meaningful scale within the Construction sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 4% and favorable momentum (63th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 26% (+2.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 16% (+8.4pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 47%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $160.35, Toll Brothers, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 92/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.1x (a 37% discount to the sector median of 19.1x), EV/EBITDA of 9.3x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.9x, P/S of 1.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to Toll Brothers, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: risk factors are within normal ranges. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 73th percentile with quality at the 83th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (73th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Toll Brothers, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 15.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 75%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; Toll Brothers, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.73% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, Toll Brothers, Inc. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 68.7/100 (rank #131 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (60/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 69/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on Toll Brothers, Inc.. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.