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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#485
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Machinery
$5.2B
Richard G. Kyle
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products. Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearings, seals, and lubrication devices and systems. The Process Industries segment provides industrial bearings and assemblies; power transmission components, such as gears and gearboxes.
Headcount
19.0K
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = TKR ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$TKR TIMKEN CO | 62 | 56 | 77 | 65 | 22.2x | 16.3x | 10.1% | 5.1% | 30.7% | 12.6% | 7.4% | -2.1% | 1.8% | 57.0x | $5.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
TIMKEN CO (TKR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 62.2/100. It ranks #485 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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HQ Base
North Canton, Ohio
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for TKR.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 56 | 54 | +2NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 65 | 68 | -3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 77 | 81 | -4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 45 | 85 | -40DRAG |
| STABILITY | 76 | 80 | -4NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 49 | 48 | +1NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 30.1% vs WACC 8.0% (spread +22.1%)
GM 31% vs sector 44%, OM 13% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover 3.16x
Rev growth -2%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 19.8x, Net debt/EBITDA 2.7x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate TIMKEN CO (TKR) as a Hold with a composite score of 62.2/100 at a current price of $109.80. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
TIMKEN CO holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 62.2/100 places it at rank #485 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at -2% and momentum in the 65th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
Narrow
Medium
Standard
Undervalued
Value factor score of 77 suggests attractive pricing.
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
TIMKEN CO represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns TIMKEN CO a Hold rating, with a composite score of 62.2/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #485 of 7,333 stocks, TKR presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 56/100, TKR shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 10.1% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 30.7% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of 7.4% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
TKR carries a solid value score of 77/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 22.19x, an EV/EBITDA of 16.31x, a P/B ratio of 2.25x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
With an investment score of 45/100, TKR exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -2.1% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of 5.1% (sector: 0.9%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
TKR demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 65/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -2.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.26 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
TKR shows good financial stability with a score of 76/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.26 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 49/100 for TKR suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.26), elevated leverage (D/E: 57.00x). With a $5.2B market cap (mid-cap), TIMKEN CO may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
TKR offers a modest dividend yield of 1.8%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
TIMKEN CO is a mid-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #485 of 7,333 overall (93rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 10.1% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 12.6% above the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While TKR currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Investment (45) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 42% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 633% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 30% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Why Timken (TKR) is back on investors’ radar Timken (TKR) has caught fresh attention after its board approved a share repurchase program covering up to 10,000,000 shares, alongside management comments highlighting continued capital deployment into both buybacks and acquisitions. See our latest analysis for Timken. Investors have seen momentum build recently, with Timken’s share price delivering a 14.79% 1 month return and 32.76% 3 month return. Its 1 year total shareholder return sits at...
In February 2026, The Timken Company announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to 10,000,000 shares through February 28, 2031, reaffirmed its quarterly dividend at US$0.35 per share, and outlined ongoing plans for mergers and acquisitions alongside changes to its board leadership. These moves collectively highlight Timken’s emphasis on capital return, portfolio expansion in areas like humanoid robotics, and governance continuity during an audit committee transition. We’ll now...
AB SKF, The Timken, ESAB, Kaiser Aluminum and Northwest Pipe have been highlighted in this Industry Outlook article.
Easing supply-chain issues and solid end-market demand should aid the Metal Products - Procurement and Fabrication industry's growth. SKFRY, TKR, ESAB, KALU and NWPX are some stocks to watch, backed by their healthy growth prospects.