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Relative valuation derived from Industrials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
10.1%
Sector: 8.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.84%
Trailing Yield
$1.84
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
40%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, TIMKEN CO (TKR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.3/100, ranked #1081 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 63/100, Momentum 64/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
TIMKEN CO (TKR) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does TIMKEN CO Do?
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearings, seals, and lubrication devices and systems, as well as power transmission components, engineered chains, augers, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and related products and maintenance services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users of off-highway equipment for the agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power equipment, and power sports markets; and on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, as well as rail cars and locomotives. It also provides power transmission systems and flight-critical components for civil and military aircraft, which include bearings, rotor-head assemblies, helicopter transmission systems, turbine engine components, gears, and housings. This segment sells its parts through a network of authorized automotive and heavy-truck distributors to individual end-users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops. The Process Industries segment provides industrial bearings and assemblies; power transmission components, such as gears and gearboxes; and linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related products and services to OEMs and end-users in various industries. It also offers aftermarket sales and service needs through a network of authorized industrial distributors; and repair and service for bearings and gearboxes, as well as electric motor rewind, repair, and services to end-users. The company offers its products under the Timken, Philadelphia Gear, Drives, Cone Drive, Rollon, Lovejoy, Diamond, BEKA, and Groeneveld brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio. TIMKEN CO (TKR) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Machinery industry. The company is led by CEO Richard G. Kyle and employs approximately 19,000 people, headquartered in North Canton, Ohio. With a market capitalization of $7.1B, TKR is one of the notable companies in the Industrials sector.
TIMKEN CO (TKR) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, TIMKEN CO receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.3/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.TKR ranks #1,081 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Industrials sector, TIMKEN CO ranks #179 of 752 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Industrials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
TKR Stock Price and 52-Week Range
TIMKEN CO (TKR) currently trades at $106.75. The stock lost $0.17 (0.2%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for TKR is $111.39, which means the stock is currently trading -4.2% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $56.20, putting the stock 89.9% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 498K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is TKR Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
TIMKEN CO (TKR) carries a value factor score of 63/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 21.79x, compared to the Industrials sector average of 28.33x — a discount of 23%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.21x, versus the sector average of 2.23x. The price-to-sales ratio is 1.61x, compared to 0.50x for the average Industrials stock. On an enterprise value basis, TKR trades at 16.08x EV/EBITDA, versus 5.70x for the sector.
Overall, TKR's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
TIMKEN CO Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
TIMKEN CO (TKR) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 10.1%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 8.9%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 5.1% versus the sector average of 3.3%.
On a margin basis, TIMKEN CO reports gross margins of 30.7%, compared to 35.8% for the sector. The operating margin is 12.6% (sector: 6.2%). Net profit margin stands at 7.4%, versus 3.9% for the average Industrials stock. Revenue growth is running at -2.1% on a trailing basis, compared to 6.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
TKR Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
TIMKEN CO has a debt-to-equity ratio of 57.0%, compared to the Industrials sector average of 70.0%. Leverage is within a manageable range for the industry, though investors should monitor debt trends over time. The current ratio is 2.82x, indicating strong short-term liquidity. Total debt on the balance sheet is $1.90B. Cash and equivalents stand at $449M.
TKR has a beta of 1.14, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for TIMKEN CO is 65/100, reflecting average volatility within the normal range for its sector.
TIMKEN CO Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, TIMKEN CO reported revenue of $4.60B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.13. Net income for the quarter was $339M. Gross margin was 30.7%. Operating income came in at $578M.
In FY 2025, TIMKEN CO reported revenue of $4.58B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.13. Net income for the quarter was $317M. Gross margin was 30.4%. Revenue grew 0.2% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $541M.
In Q3 2025, TIMKEN CO reported revenue of $1.16B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.99. Net income for the quarter was $74M. Gross margin was 30.2%. Revenue grew 2.7% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $139M.
In Q2 2025, TIMKEN CO reported revenue of $1.17B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.13. Net income for the quarter was $86M. Gross margin was 30.7%. Revenue grew -0.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $148M.
Over the past 8 quarters, TIMKEN CO has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.18B to $4.60B. Investors analyzing TKR stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
TKR Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
TIMKEN CO (TKR) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.8%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in TKR stock would generate approximately $$184.00 in annual dividend income. The net margin of 7.4% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
TKR Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
TIMKEN CO (TKR) has a momentum factor score of 64/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 34/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 31/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
TKR vs Competitors — Industrials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing TKR against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full TKR vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how TIMKEN CO stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
TKR Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for TIMKEN CO (TKR) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy TKR? — Investment Thesis Summary
TIMKEN CO presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 63/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 64/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 65/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, TIMKEN CO (TKR) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.3/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on TKR stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
TIMKEN CO (TKR) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain our Hold rating on Timken (TKR), driven by a balanced view of the company's solid market position and operational efficiency against a backdrop of cyclical end-market exposure and moderate growth prospects. While Timken exhibits strong profitability metrics relative to its sector, its recent revenue decline and modest investment score raise concerns about its ability to sustain outperformance. The current valuation appears fair, reflecting both its strengths and weaknesses, justifying a neutral stance.
Timken's strategic focus on engineered bearings and power transmission products, coupled with its diversified end-market exposure, provides a degree of resilience. However, the company's reliance on cyclical industries like automotive, agriculture, and mining introduces volatility. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic trends and Timken's ability to navigate these cycles while executing its growth initiatives.
Business Strategy & Overview
Timken operates through two primary segments: Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment caters to OEMs and end-users in sectors like agriculture, construction, mining, and automotive, providing bearings, seals, and power transmission components. This segment's strategy revolves around capturing aftermarket sales through a network of authorized distributors, targeting equipment owners and maintenance shops. The Process Industries segment focuses on industrial bearings, gearboxes, and related services for OEMs and end-users across various industries, including aftermarket sales and repair services. This dual-segment approach allows Timken to address a broad spectrum of industrial needs, mitigating risk associated with over-reliance on any single sector.
Timken's strategic positioning emphasizes engineered solutions and value-added services. This approach differentiates it from commodity-based competitors and allows for higher margins. The company invests in research and development to innovate new products and improve existing ones, focusing on enhancing performance, durability, and efficiency. These investments are crucial for maintaining a competitive edge and capturing market share in specialized applications.
A key element of Timken's strategy is its focus on acquisitions to expand its product portfolio and geographic reach. These acquisitions often target companies with complementary technologies or market access, enabling Timken to offer a more comprehensive suite of solutions to its customers. The integration of acquired businesses is critical for realizing synergies and maximizing the return on investment.
Timken's distribution network is a significant asset, providing access to a wide range of customers and enabling efficient delivery of products and services. The company leverages its network of authorized distributors to provide technical support, application engineering, and aftermarket services, enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty. This network also serves as a valuable source of market intelligence, allowing Timken to anticipate customer needs and adapt its offerings accordingly.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
-2.1%
Sector: 6.4%
-133% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Timken possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its brand reputation and specialized engineering expertise. While not insurmountable, these factors create a degree of competitive advantage that allows Timken to generate returns on invested capital above its cost of capital for a limited period. The Timken brand is well-recognized in the industrial sector for quality and reliability, particularly in demanding applications where performance is critical. This reputation provides a pricing premium and fosters customer loyalty.
The company's engineering expertise is another source of competitive advantage. Timken designs and manufactures highly engineered bearings and power transmission products that meet specific customer requirements. This requires specialized knowledge and capabilities that are not easily replicated by competitors. The ability to provide customized solutions and technical support enhances customer relationships and creates switching costs.
However, Timken's moat is not wide due to the presence of numerous competitors in the bearings and power transmission industries. While Timken holds a significant market share in certain niche segments, it faces competition from both large global players and smaller regional specialists. The commoditization of certain products and the availability of alternative solutions limit Timken's pricing power and ability to sustain high margins.
Switching costs are moderate for many of Timken's customers. While the cost of replacing a bearing or gearbox may be relatively low, the potential downtime and disruption associated with switching suppliers can be significant, particularly in critical applications. This creates a degree of stickiness that benefits Timken. However, customers are also willing to switch if they can find a lower-cost alternative or a product with superior performance.
The absence of strong network effects further limits Timken's moat. While the company benefits from its established distribution network, the value of its products and services does not increase significantly as more customers adopt them. This contrasts with businesses that exhibit strong network effects, where the value of the network grows exponentially with each new user.
Financial Health & Profitability
Timken's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company exhibits strong profitability metrics compared to the industrial sector, its recent revenue decline and high debt levels warrant careful consideration. The company's gross margin of 30.7% is slightly below the sector average of 35.8%, but its operating margin of 12.6% and net margin of 7.4% significantly exceed the sector averages of 6.2% and 3.7%, respectively. This suggests that Timken is effectively managing its operating expenses and generating strong profits from its sales.
However, Timken's revenue growth has been negative, with a -2.1% decline compared to the sector's 6.6% growth. This indicates that the company is facing challenges in expanding its sales and capturing market share. The quarterly financial history reveals a fluctuating revenue trend, with recent quarters showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year. This revenue decline is a concern and needs to be addressed to ensure long-term growth.
Timken's return on equity (ROE) of 10.1% is slightly above the sector average of 9.2%, indicating that the company is effectively utilizing its equity to generate profits. However, the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 57.00 is relatively high, although still better than the sector's 70.00. This high leverage increases the company's financial risk and could limit its ability to invest in growth opportunities. The total debt of $1.90 billion is substantial and requires careful monitoring.
The company's current ratio of 2.82 indicates strong liquidity and the ability to meet its short-term obligations. The total cash of $449.10 million provides a buffer against unexpected expenses and allows for strategic investments. However, the absence of free cash flow data makes it difficult to assess the company's ability to generate cash from its operations. This is a significant omission and should be investigated further.
Analyzing the quarterly financials, we observe a decline in net income from FY2024 to FY2025, alongside a decrease in EPS. This trend, coupled with the revenue decline, suggests potential headwinds in the near term. While gross margins have remained relatively stable, operating margins have also seen a slight decrease, indicating potential pressure on profitability.
Valuation Assessment
Timken's valuation appears to be fair, considering its profitability, growth prospects, and financial health. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.1x is below the sector average of 27.7x, suggesting that the stock is relatively undervalued compared to its peers. Similarly, its enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 4.0x is significantly below the sector average of 5.7x, further supporting the notion that the stock is undervalued.
However, the company's negative revenue growth and moderate investment score temper the attractiveness of its valuation. While the P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest undervaluation, the lack of strong growth prospects limits the potential for significant upside. Investors should consider the company's cyclical end-market exposure and its ability to navigate economic downturns when assessing its valuation.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis would provide a more comprehensive assessment of Timken's intrinsic value. However, the absence of free cash flow data makes it difficult to perform a reliable DCF analysis. Without this information, it is challenging to determine whether the stock is truly undervalued or if the low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are simply reflecting the company's limited growth potential.
Comparing Timken's valuation to its historical averages can also provide insights into its relative attractiveness. If the company's current P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are below its historical averages, it could suggest that the stock is undervalued. However, it is important to consider any changes in the company's business model, competitive landscape, or growth prospects when making this comparison.
Given the available data, we believe that Timken's current valuation is fair, reflecting both its strengths and weaknesses. The company's strong profitability and solid market position are offset by its negative revenue growth and moderate investment score. Investors should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions.
Risk & Uncertainty
Timken faces several risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and stock price. One of the most significant risks is its exposure to cyclical end-markets, such as automotive, agriculture, and mining. These industries are highly sensitive to economic conditions, and a downturn in any of these sectors could significantly reduce Timken's revenue and earnings. The recent revenue decline suggests that the company is already experiencing the effects of economic headwinds.
Competition is another significant risk. The bearings and power transmission industries are highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. Timken faces competition from both large global players and smaller regional specialists. Increased competition could lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.
The company's high debt levels also pose a risk. The total debt of $1.90 billion increases the company's financial risk and could limit its ability to invest in growth opportunities. Rising interest rates could further increase the company's debt service costs and reduce its profitability.
Integration risk associated with acquisitions is another concern. Timken has historically grown through acquisitions, and the success of these acquisitions depends on the company's ability to effectively integrate the acquired businesses. Failure to integrate acquisitions successfully could lead to lower-than-expected synergies and reduced returns on investment.
Supply chain disruptions could also impact Timken's financial performance. The company relies on a global supply chain to source raw materials and components. Disruptions to this supply chain, such as those caused by geopolitical events or natural disasters, could lead to increased costs and reduced production.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWTimken's strong operating margins relative to peers demonstrate superior operational efficiency and pricing power, suggesting the company can maintain profitability even in challenging environments.
BULL VIEWThe company's diversified end-market exposure mitigates risk, as strength in one sector can offset weakness in another, providing a more stable revenue stream.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWTimken's negative revenue growth signals a loss of market share or weakening demand, indicating potential long-term challenges to its competitive position.
BEAR VIEWThe company's high debt levels limit its financial flexibility and increase its vulnerability to economic downturns, potentially hindering its ability to invest in future growth.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score TKR and 4,400+ other equities.
TIMKEN CO exhibits a 95% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
5.1%
Sector: 3.3%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
30.7%
Sector: 35.8%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
12.6%
Sector: 6.2%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
7.4%
Sector: 3.9%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield0.00%
Yield Delta—
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $184 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
