THG

We rate HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (THG) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.2/100 at a current price of $173.49. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (80th percentile) and value (44th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (27th percentile) and investment (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (44/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.2/100 places it at rank #2923 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $6.5B in market capitalization, HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 8%, though momentum at the 42th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 12% (-4.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 8.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $173.49, HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 44/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 10.9x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 8.8x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.7x, P/S of 0.9x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.38, conservative leverage (24% D/E), and a stability factor in the 80th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (27th percentile); low beta of 0.38 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 80th percentile and quality factor at the 27th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (24% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (80th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 15.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 24%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.98% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.2/100 (rank #2923 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (44/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 45/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.