TCPC

We rate BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) as Avoid with a composite score of 28.5/100 at a current price of $4.51. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (43th percentile) and quality (30th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (6th percentile) and stability (21th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (17/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. holds a lower-quartile position (#38 of 38) within the Financial sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 28.5/100 places it at rank #4618 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $527M in market capitalization, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is a small-cap player in the Financial space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -24% combined with momentum at the 6th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (0.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 11% (-47.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 40.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 40%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $4.51, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 43/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 7.7x (a 22% discount to the sector median of 9.8x), EV/EBITDA of 110.0x (at a premium), P/B of 0.5x, P/S of 3.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (142% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (21th percentile), weak quality scores (30th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (142% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (21th percentile); weak quality scores (30th percentile); low beta of 0.69 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 21th percentile and quality factor at the 30th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 21.13% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate BlackRock TCP Capital Corp.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 6.9%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 142%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 21.13% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 28.5/100 (rank #4618 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (17/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 26/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.