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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1435
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Shipping Containers
$22.2B
Pending
Detailed business profile pending verification.
Headcount
—
HQ Base
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = SW ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 32.9% | 20.5% | 48.8% | 30.6% | 24.4% | 7.7% | 0.9% | 32.0x | $148.6B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.4% | 7.5% | 68.3% | 19.5% | 18.2% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $84M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SW Smurfit Westrock plc | 54 | 49 | 71 | 46 | 56.5x | 13.2x | 2.4% | 1.0% | 19.2% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 147.0x | $22.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -1.9% | 0.9% | 44.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 53.7/100. It ranks #1435 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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DUBLIN 4,
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for SW.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 49 | 41 | +8ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 46 | 39 | +7ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 71 | 72 | -1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 42 | 78 | -36DRAG |
| STABILITY | 61 | 59 | +2NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 46 | 43 | +3NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 3.3% vs WACC 7.8% (spread -4.5%)
GM 19% vs sector 44%, OM 4% vs sector 3%
Capital turnover 0.60x
Rev growth 4%, 2yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA 25.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.7/100 at a current price of $45.91. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Smurfit Westrock plc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.7/100 places it at rank #1435 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Poor
Undervalued
Value factor score of 71 suggests attractive pricing.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 56.5x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 147% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Smurfit Westrock plc represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Smurfit Westrock plc a Hold rating, with a composite score of 53.7/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1435 of 7,333 stocks, SW presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 49/100, SW shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 2.4% (sector avg: -1.9%), gross margins of 19.2% (sector avg: 44.1%), net margins of 1.4% (sector avg: 1.0%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
SW carries a solid value score of 71/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 56.46x, an EV/EBITDA of 13.15x, a P/B ratio of 1.38x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
With an investment score of 42/100, SW exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 4.3% vs. a sector average of 6.7% and a return on assets of 1.0% (sector: 0.9%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
SW is currently showing below-average momentum at 46/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 4.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.23 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 61/100, SW exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 147.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
The short interest score of 46/100 for SW suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.23), elevated leverage (D/E: 147.00x). With a $22.2B market cap (large-cap), Smurfit Westrock plc may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
SW pays a solid dividend yield of 3.8%, contributing an income component to total returns. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
Smurfit Westrock plc is a large-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1435 of 7,333 overall (80th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 2.4% exceeding the -1.9% sector median and operating margins of 4.4% above the 2.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While SW currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Investment (42) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 15% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 228% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 56% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) is back in focus after a busy update cycle, combining fourth quarter earnings, a 5% dividend increase, capacity closures in Quebec, and fresh medium term financial targets through 2030. See our latest analysis for Smurfit Westrock. Those announcements landed alongside a sharp shift in market sentiment, with a 90 day share price return of 52% and a 7 day share price return of 16.81% pushing Smurfit Westrock to US$51.56. The 1 year total shareholder return is slightly...
Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) is permanently closing a major paper machine at its La Tuque mill in Quebec. The company is also shutting an extrusion facility in Pointe-aux-Trembles as part of a wider restructuring. These closures affect production capacity and local employment while reshaping Smurfit Westrock’s North American footprint. For investors watching Smurfit Westrock, the closures come at a time when the stock trades at $51.56, with the share price up 16.8% over the past week and...
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Smurfit Westrock Plc has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with quarterly sales edging up to US$7,580 million while net income fell to US$97 million, and full-year sales rising to US$31.18 billion alongside net income of US$699 million. Alongside these results, the company moved to close a paper machine and related extrusion facility in Quebec, signaling an effort to streamline its solid bleached sulfate portfolio and sharpen the competitiveness of its paperboard...
Smurfit Westrock Plc recently reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of US$7,580 million and net income of US$97 million, while also announcing the permanent closure of an underperforming paper machine and related extrusion facility in Quebec and approving a quarterly dividend of US$0.4523 per share. These updates highlight a company simultaneously tightening its manufacturing footprint and cost base, delivering much higher full-year earnings of US$699 million, and signalling...