SSP

We rate E.W. SCRIPPS Co (SSP) as a Reduce with a composite score of 43.6/100 at a current price of $3.47. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (65th percentile) and value (46th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (20th percentile) and quality (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (20/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends; balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

E.W. SCRIPPS Co holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 43.6/100 places it at rank #3045 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $217M in market capitalization, E.W. SCRIPPS Co is a small-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Despite positive momentum (65th percentile), revenue contraction of -8% creates a divergence between price action and fundamental trajectory. This divergence suggests either that the market is looking through near-term weakness or that technical factors are temporarily inflating the stock. Investors should assess whether the revenue decline reflects cyclical weakness or structural challenges.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 41% (-14.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 11% (-6.2pp vs sector) and net margins of -1.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -4%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $3.47, E.W. SCRIPPS Co is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 46/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 1.3x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.3x, P/S of 0.1x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to E.W. SCRIPPS Co. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.38), significant leverage (304% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -1.6%). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.38); significant leverage (304% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -1.6%); below-average price stability (20th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 20th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 41% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate E.W. SCRIPPS Co's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-1.9%), elevated leverage (304% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.5%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — E.W. SCRIPPS Co significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, E.W. SCRIPPS Co receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 43.6/100 (rank #3045 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (20/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on E.W. SCRIPPS Co at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.