SPNT

We rate SiriusPoint Ltd (SPNT) as a Hold with a composite score of 53.4/100 at a current price of $21.14. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (75th percentile) and value (66th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (24th percentile) and quality (33th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (49/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: whether strong momentum is fundamentally supported by revenue trends. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

SiriusPoint Ltd holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 53.4/100 places it at rank #1468 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.1B in market capitalization, SiriusPoint Ltd is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 2% and favorable momentum (75th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 9% (-7.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 7.6%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $21.14, SiriusPoint Ltd is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 66/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.2x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 11.7x (at a premium), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 0.9x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to SiriusPoint Ltd. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.54, conservative leverage (31% D/E), and a stability factor in the 52th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (33th percentile); low beta of 0.54 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 52th percentile and quality factor at the 33th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our low uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate SiriusPoint Ltd's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.2%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 31%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; SiriusPoint Ltd falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, SiriusPoint Ltd receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 53.4/100 (rank #1468 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (49/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 50/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on SiriusPoint Ltd. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.