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SPG Stock Analysis: Hold (Score 57.4/100) | Blank Capital Research | Blank Capital Research
SPG
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/
$199.95
+0.97 (+0.49%)
Score57.4
Data as of Apr 6, 2026
SPG
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/
FinancialsTrading
$199.95
+0.97 (+0.49%)
Open $199.39High $200.50Low $198.33Prev $198.97Vol ---52W: $136.34 – $204.05
Hold
Composite score
01234567890123456789.0123456789
Global rank
#301
Percentile
Top 7%
Business quality
76th
percentile
Exceptional capital efficiency and structural profitability. This enterprise generates superior returns on invested capital compared to industry peers.
Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 76.1GRADE B+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
36.6%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
4.56%
Trailing Yield
$4.56
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
119%HIGH
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 57.4/100, ranked #301 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 76/100, Value 60/100, Momentum 50/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ Do?
Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales. SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Trading industry. The company is led by CEO David E. Simon and employs approximately 3,300 people. With a market capitalization of $61.1B, SPG is one of the prominent companies in the Financials sector.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.4/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.SPG ranks #301 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ ranks #110 of 891 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
SPG Stock Price and 52-Week Range
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) currently trades at $199.94. The stock gained $0.97 (0.5%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for SPG is $204.05, which means the stock is currently trading -2.0% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $136.34, putting the stock 46.7% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 538K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is SPG Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) carries a value factor score of 60/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 26.11x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a premium of 75%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 9.57x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 10.23x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, SPG trades at 20.63x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Overall, SPG's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) earns a quality factor score of 76/100, reflecting elite profitability and capital efficiency that places it among the highest-quality businesses in the market. The return on equity (ROE) is 36.6%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 5.8% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ reports gross margins of 98.0%. The operating margin is 50.4% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 39.1%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 9.8% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. These metrics collectively paint a picture of a highly profitable business with durable competitive advantages.
SPG Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ has a debt-to-equity ratio of 439.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.20x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $28.43B. Cash and equivalents stand at $1.55B.
SPG has a beta of 0.83, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ is 82/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ reported revenue of $6.05B and earnings per share (EPS) of $14.17. Net income for the quarter was $2.37B. Gross margin was 98.0%. Operating income came in at $3.05B.
In FY 2025, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ reported revenue of $6.36B and earnings per share (EPS) of $14.17. Net income for the quarter was $5.36B. Revenue grew 6.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $3.18B.
In Q3 2025, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ reported revenue of $1.60B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86. Net income for the quarter was $703M. Revenue grew 8.2% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $813M.
In Q2 2025, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ reported revenue of $1.50B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70. Net income for the quarter was $644M. Revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $744M.
Over the past 8 quarters, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.46B to $6.05B. Investors analyzing SPG stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
SPG Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) currently pays a dividend yield of 4.6%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in SPG stock would generate approximately $$456.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning SPG offers above-average income for its sector. With a net margin of 39.1%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
SPG Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) has a momentum factor score of 50/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 29/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 20/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
SPG vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing SPG against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full SPG vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
SPG Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy SPG? — Investment Thesis Summary
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 76/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 60/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 82/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.4/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on SPG stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ (SPG) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Simon Property Group (SPG). While SPG exhibits strong profitability and stability, as evidenced by its high Quality and Stability scores in our quant model, concerns regarding its capital allocation and growth prospects, reflected in a low Investment score, temper our enthusiasm. The company's high debt levels and negative free cash flow further contribute to our cautious stance, despite its attractive valuation relative to the broader financials sector.
SPG's dominant position in the high-end mall segment provides a degree of resilience, but the evolving retail landscape and the company's capital allocation decisions warrant careful monitoring. The current valuation appears reasonable, but significant upside potential is limited by the aforementioned challenges. We believe a Hold rating appropriately reflects the balance between SPG's strengths and weaknesses.
Business Strategy & Overview
Simon Property Group operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on owning, developing, and managing premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations. The company generates revenue primarily through leasing space to retailers within its properties. SPG's strategy centers on maintaining high occupancy rates and attracting high-quality tenants that drive foot traffic and sales. This is achieved through strategic property locations, continuous investment in property improvements, and a focus on creating experiential retail environments.
SPG's strategic positioning emphasizes high-end malls and outlet centers, catering to a more affluent consumer base that is less susceptible to economic downturns. The company also actively pursues mixed-use developments, incorporating residential, office, and hotel components into its properties to diversify revenue streams and enhance property value. Furthermore, SPG has been investing in technology and digital initiatives to improve the customer experience and enhance tenant performance.
The company's product pipeline includes ongoing redevelopment and expansion projects at existing properties, as well as selective acquisitions of high-quality assets. These investments are aimed at enhancing the appeal of SPG's properties and attracting new tenants. SPG also focuses on optimizing its tenant mix, attracting a diverse range of retailers and entertainment options to cater to evolving consumer preferences.
In the context of the broader retail industry, SPG faces challenges from the growth of e-commerce and changing consumer shopping habits. To address these challenges, the company is adapting its properties to offer more experiential retail and entertainment options, as well as integrating digital technologies to enhance the shopping experience. SPG's scale and financial strength provide a competitive advantage in navigating these industry trends.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
9.8%
Sector: 9.4%
IN LINE
Economic Moat Analysis
Simon Property Group possesses a Narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its prime locations and the high barriers to entry in the high-end mall segment. The company's portfolio of premier shopping destinations benefits from strong brand recognition and a reputation for attracting high-quality tenants. These factors contribute to SPG's ability to command premium rental rates and maintain high occupancy rates.
The scarcity of prime retail locations creates a significant barrier to entry for potential competitors. Developing new, large-scale malls in desirable locations is a capital-intensive and time-consuming process, requiring significant regulatory approvals and facing potential opposition from existing retailers. This limits the ability of new entrants to replicate SPG's portfolio of high-quality properties.
While SPG benefits from its established relationships with major retailers, the increasing power of these retailers and the rise of e-commerce pose a threat to its moat. Retailers are increasingly demanding more favorable lease terms and are exploring alternative channels to reach consumers. This could put pressure on SPG's rental rates and occupancy rates in the long term.
The network effect, while present to some extent, is not a primary driver of SPG's moat. While a greater variety of tenants attracts more shoppers, the strength of the network effect is limited by the availability of alternative shopping options and the increasing prevalence of online retail. Switching costs for retailers are also relatively low, as they can easily relocate to other properties or explore online channels.
Intangible assets, such as brand reputation, contribute to SPG's moat, but are not as significant as its prime locations. The company's reputation for managing high-quality properties and attracting desirable tenants enhances its ability to attract both retailers and shoppers. However, this reputation can be eroded by poor management decisions or a decline in the quality of its properties.
Financial Health & Profitability
Simon Property Group exhibits a mixed financial profile. The company's revenue growth has been positive, with a TTM revenue of $6.36 billion, representing a 9.8% increase compared to the previous year's $5.96 billion. This growth rate is slightly above the sector average of 9.3%. However, the company's free cash flow is negative at -$137.37 million, which is a cause for concern.
SPG's profitability metrics are strong, with a TTM net income of $5.36 billion and an operating margin of 50.4%, significantly higher than the sector average of 22.0%. The company's return on equity (ROE) is also impressive at 36.6%, far exceeding the sector average of 8.5%. These figures indicate that SPG is highly efficient at generating profits from its assets.
However, SPG's balance sheet is highly leveraged, with a total debt of $28.43 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of 439.00, significantly higher than the sector average of 115.00. This high level of debt increases the company's financial risk and could limit its ability to invest in future growth opportunities. The company's current ratio of 1.20 indicates that it has sufficient liquid assets to cover its short-term liabilities.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals a consistent trend of strong revenue and net income generation. The operating margin has remained relatively stable, hovering around 50%. However, the absence of free cash flow data for most quarters makes it difficult to assess the company's cash flow generation capabilities on a quarterly basis. The significant increase in net income from FY2024 ($2.73B) to FY2025 ($5.36B) is noteworthy and warrants further investigation to understand the drivers behind this improvement.
Valuation Assessment
Simon Property Group's valuation presents a mixed picture. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.0x is lower than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. However, its enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 4.8x is higher than the sector average of 3.5x, indicating that the company may be overvalued on an enterprise value basis.
The negative free cash flow further complicates the valuation assessment. A negative FCF makes it difficult to use traditional FCF-based valuation methods. Investors should carefully consider the reasons for the negative FCF and assess whether it is a temporary issue or a more persistent problem.
Compared to its historical valuation, SPG's current P/E ratio is within its historical range, but the high debt levels and negative FCF warrant a more cautious approach. The company's strong profitability and high ROE provide some support for its valuation, but the risks associated with its leverage and cash flow generation cannot be ignored.
Given the mixed valuation signals and the company's financial challenges, we believe that SPG is fairly valued at its current price. While the stock may offer some upside potential, the risks associated with its leverage and cash flow generation limit its attractiveness. A Hold rating appropriately reflects the balance between SPG's valuation and its financial risks.
Risk & Uncertainty
Simon Property Group faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. The most significant risk is the continued disruption of the retail industry by e-commerce. The growth of online retail is putting pressure on brick-and-mortar stores, leading to store closures and reduced demand for retail space. This could negatively impact SPG's occupancy rates and rental income.
Another risk is the company's high level of debt. SPG's debt-to-equity ratio of 439.00 is significantly higher than the sector average, increasing its financial risk. Rising interest rates could further increase the company's debt servicing costs and reduce its profitability. A significant economic downturn could also make it difficult for SPG to meet its debt obligations.
Competition from other REITs and alternative retail formats also poses a risk to SPG. The company faces competition from other mall operators, as well as from outlet centers, lifestyle centers, and online retailers. Increased competition could put pressure on SPG's rental rates and occupancy rates.
Tenant concentration is another potential risk. While SPG has a diverse tenant base, a significant portion of its revenue is derived from a small number of large retailers. The bankruptcy or financial distress of one or more of these major tenants could have a material adverse impact on SPG's financial performance.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWSimon Property Group's premier properties and proactive adaptation to experiential retail will drive continued high occupancy and rental rates, defying broader retail headwinds.
BULL VIEWSPG's strong balance sheet, despite high debt, provides ample flexibility to pursue strategic acquisitions and redevelopment projects, enhancing long-term value.
BULL VIEWThe company's superior management team and proven track record of navigating economic cycles will ensure continued profitability and shareholder returns.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWThe secular decline of brick-and-mortar retail, accelerated by e-commerce, will inevitably lead to declining occupancy rates and rental income for SPG, regardless of its property quality.
BEAR VIEWSPG's high debt burden leaves it vulnerable to rising interest rates and economic downturns, potentially leading to financial distress.
BEAR VIEWThe company's capital allocation decisions, particularly its investments in struggling retailers, are questionable and may not generate adequate returns.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score SPG and 4,400+ other equities.
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC /DE/ exhibits a 582% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
5.8%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
98.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
50.4%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
39.1%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta+84%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $456 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
