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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2795
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Insurance
$4.9B
John J. Marchioni
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. provides insurance products and services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, E&S Lines, and Investments. The company offers property insurance products, which covers the financial consequences of accidental loss of an insured's real property, personal property, and/or earnings.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = SIGI ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$SIGI SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC | 45 | 28 | 41 | 49 | 12.7x | 10.0x | 11.2% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 14.4% | 1.9% | 320.0x | $4.9B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC (SIGI) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 45.0/100. It ranks #2795 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for SIGI.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 28 | 22 | +6ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 49 | 51 | -2NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 41 | 44 | -3NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 35 | 56 | -21DRAG |
| STABILITY | 62 | 69 | -7DRAG |
| SHORT INT | 34 | 26 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 51.4% vs WACC 8.5% (spread +42.9%)
GM 0% vs sector 78%, OM 10% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 5.92x
Rev growth 14%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 44.5x, Net debt/EBITDA 1.5x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC (SIGI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.0/100 at a current price of $82.62. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.0/100 places it at rank #2795 in our full universe.
Narrow
High
Poor
Fair Value
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 320% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 45.0/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2795 out of 7,333 stocks. SIGI's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
SIGI's quality score of 28/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 11.2% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 7.7% (sector avg: 21.9%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 41/100, SIGI appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 12.67x, an EV/EBITDA of 10.03x, a P/B ratio of 1.42x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC's investment score of 35/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 14.4% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 2.7% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
SIGI is currently showing below-average momentum at 49/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 14.4% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.39 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 62/100, SIGI exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.39 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 320.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC's short interest score of 34/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 320.00x). At $4.9B (mid-cap), SIGI carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
SIGI offers a modest dividend yield of 1.9%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC is a mid-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2795 of 7,333 overall (62nd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 11.2% exceeding the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 9.8% below the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While SIGI currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Quality (28) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 29% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 24% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Selective Insurance (SIGI) first-quarter results suffer due to higher non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses. However, average renewal pure price increases and new business growth offer some respite.
Selective Insurance Group has followed the market’s trajectory closely, rising in tandem with the S&P 500 over the past six months. The stock has climbed by 9% to $84.94 per share while the index has gained 7.6%.
Selective Insurance (SIGI) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.
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