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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2286
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Pharmaceutical Products
$655M
Phillip L. Gomez
SIGA Technologies, Inc. focuses on the health security and infectious disease markets in the United States. Its lead product is TPOXX, an oral formulation antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by variola virus. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = SIGA ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$SIGA SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC | 48 | 39 | 54 | 44 | 16.1x | 14.3x | 14.8% | 13.0% | 78.0% | -90.1% | -47.9% | -88.0% | 6.6% | 14.0x | $655M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC (SIGA) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.3/100. It ranks #2286 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Phillip L. Gomez
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
40
39
36
74
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for SIGA
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for SIGA.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 39 | 16 | +23ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 44 | 27 | +17ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 54 | 34 | +20ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 36 | 59 | -23DRAG |
| STABILITY | 74 | 71 | +3NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 34 | 23 | +11ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 14.8% (sector -2.5%)
GM 78% vs sector 43%, OM -90% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 16.4%
Rev growth -88%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.3/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2286 out of 7,333 stocks. SIGA's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
SIGA's quality score of 39/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 14.8% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 78.0% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -47.9% (sector avg: -0.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
SIGA's value score of 54/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 16.08x, an EV/EBITDA of 14.32x, a P/B ratio of 2.38x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC's investment score of 36/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -88.0% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of 13.0% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
SIGA is currently showing below-average momentum at 44/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -88.0% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.61 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
SIGA shows good financial stability with a score of 74/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.61 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 14.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC's short interest score of 34/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 14.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $655M (small-cap), SIGA carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.6%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2286 of 7,333 overall (69th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 14.8% exceeding the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -90.1% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While SIGA currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Short Int. (34) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 25% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 696% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 83% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC (SIGA) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.3/100 at a current price of $6.76. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (74th percentile) and value (54th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (36th percentile) and quality (39th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (44/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.
Key items to watch: the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.3/100 places it at rank #2286 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $655M in market capitalization, SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -88% combined with momentum at the 44th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 78% (+35.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -90% (-91.4pp vs sector) and net margins of -47.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -61%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $6.76, SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 54/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 16.1x (a 28% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 14.3x (at a premium), P/B of 2.4x, P/S of 4.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
Gross margins of 78% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
A conservative balance sheet (14% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
A 6.56% dividend yield provides income while you wait, and dividends historically account for a significant portion of total equity returns.
Return on assets of 13.0% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
The Reduce rating (composite 48.3/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Revenue decline of -88% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: current negative profitability (net margin -47.9%) and low beta of 0.61 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -47.9%); low beta of 0.61 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 74th percentile and quality factor at the 39th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 78% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (14% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (74th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 14.8%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 14%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC falls short on at least one dimension.
There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 6.56% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.
In summary, SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.3/100 (rank #2286 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (44/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 44/100. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being margin superiority at 12.6/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (12.6/20) and financial resilience (9.8/20). GM 78% vs sector 43%, OM -90% vs sector 1%. Interest coverage N/A. These pillars form the core of SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (5.8/20) and economic value creation (6.9/20). Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 16.4%. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 78% providing a solid profitability foundation, declining revenues (-88%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 78% gross to -90% operating to -47.9% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 39th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 78%, operating margins of -90%, net margins of -47.9%. Return metrics include ROE of 14.8% and ROA of 13.0%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 35.5 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 14.8% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 14%, a dividend yield of 6.56%, revenue growth of -88%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Thin net margins of -47.9% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
SIGA Technologies shareholders have experienced a 35% decline in share price over the last three years, falling short of the market's 73% return. This underperformance aligns with an 11% annual drop in the company's earnings per share over the same period. Despite a recent sell-off, the long-term total shareholder return, including dividends, was -17%, suggesting that fundamental data indicating sustainable growth could make the current share price an opportunity for consideration.
SIGA Technologies Inc. specializes in antiviral treatments, with TPOXX for smallpox as its flagship product, operating in the health security market. Despite a significant revenue growth decline of 73.80%, the company boasts a strong return on equity of 39.94% and considerable free cash flow. While there's an absence of analyst coverage, SIGA's strategic market position and innovative products present a unique opportunity for investors willing to conduct their own due diligence.
As the U.S. market navigates a period of mixed performance, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 showing gains while the Dow faces pressure from health insurers, investors are keenly observing how economic indicators and Federal Reserve decisions might impact small-cap companies. In this landscape, identifying stocks with solid fundamentals and growth potential becomes crucial for those looking to capitalize on less obvious opportunities.
SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ:SIGA) shares have dropped 26% in the last month, contributing to a 3.5% decline over the past year. Despite a low P/E ratio of 5.8x, the company has experienced a 14% decline in earnings last year and a 30% fall over three years. Although analyst forecasts predict an 18% earnings growth for the next year, exceeding the broader market, the depressed share price suggests investor skepticism regarding these projections.
SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ:SIGA) reported its Q3 2025 earnings, highlighting strong financial health and continued progress in its mission to support government preparedness against smallpox outbreaks with its antiviral treatment, TPOXX. The company discussed ongoing engagement with the U.S. government for future procurement, progress on its pediatric formulation and post-exposure prophylaxis programs, and its confidence in TPOXX's efficacy amidst European Medicines Agency reviews. SIGA emphasized its strong balance sheet with $172 million in cash and no debt, underpinning its strategic initiatives and long-term shareholder value creation.