SF

We rate STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP (SF) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.3/100 at a current price of $112.97. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (54th percentile) and stability (42th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (31th percentile) and value (35th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.3/100 places it at rank #3224 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $37.1B market capitalization, STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 12%, though momentum at the 54th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 13% (-4.3pp vs sector) and net margins of 9.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $112.97, STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 35/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 21.1x (a 77% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 16.4x (at a premium), P/B of 2.1x, P/S of 2.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.43) and weak quality scores (31th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.43); weak quality scores (31th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 42th percentile and quality factor at the 31th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (11% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 11%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.59% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 42.3/100 (rank #3224 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 40/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on STIFEL FINANCIAL CORP at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.