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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1769
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Retail
$502M
Mark J. Worden
Shoe Carnival, Inc. operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com.
Headcount
5.8K
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = SCVL ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 6.9% | 4.1% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | -3.4% | 1.1% | 33.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | -25.2% | -10.6% | 28.1% | -6.3% | -5.4% | -7.8% | 6.1% | 57.0x | $396M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.2% | 59.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $764M | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 32.0% | 6.6% | 51.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 178.0x | $934M | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 0.4% | -3.5% | 61.7% | 2.1% | -5.7% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 190.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$SCVL SHOE CARNIVAL INC | 52 | 46 | 72 | 48 | 9.3x | 7.3x | 9.1% | 5.3% | 36.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | -10.7% | 3.2% | 72.0x | $502M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 9.6% | 3.6% | 37.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.7x | - | REF |
SHOE CARNIVAL INC (SCVL) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 51.6/100. It ranks #1769 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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HQ Base
EVANSVILLE, Indiana
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for SCVL.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 46 | 51 | -5NEUTRAL |
| MOMENTUM | 48 | 44 | +4NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 72 | 81 | -9DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 43 | 81 | -38DRAG |
| STABILITY | 52 | 55 | -3NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 36 | 28 | +8ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 9.1% (sector 9.6%)
GM 37% vs sector 37%, OM 7% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth -11%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 238.8x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate SHOE CARNIVAL INC (SCVL) as a Hold with a composite score of 51.6/100 at a current price of $21.05. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
SHOE CARNIVAL INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 51.6/100 places it at rank #1769 in our full universe.
Narrow
Medium
Standard
Undervalued
Value factor score of 72 suggests attractive pricing.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
SHOE CARNIVAL INC represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns SHOE CARNIVAL INC a Hold rating, with a composite score of 51.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1769 of 7,333 stocks, SCVL presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
With a quality score of 46/100, SCVL shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 9.1% (sector avg: 9.6%), gross margins of 36.7% (sector avg: 37.3%), net margins of 5.2% (sector avg: 2.4%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
SCVL carries a solid value score of 72/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 9.33x, an EV/EBITDA of 7.25x, a P/B ratio of 0.85x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
With an investment score of 43/100, SCVL exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -10.7% vs. a sector average of 3.7% and a return on assets of 5.3% (sector: 3.6%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
SCVL is currently showing below-average momentum at 48/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at -10.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.20 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
With a stability score of 52/100, SCVL exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.20 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 72.00x (sector avg: 0.7x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
SHOE CARNIVAL INC's short interest score of 36/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.20), elevated leverage (D/E: 72.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $502M (small-cap), SCVL carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
SCVL pays a solid dividend yield of 3.2%, contributing an income component to total returns. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
SHOE CARNIVAL INC is a small-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1769 of 7,333 overall (76th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 9.1% trailing the 9.6% sector median and operating margins of 6.7% above the 4.4% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While SCVL currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Short Int. (36) is the limiting factor — improvement here would lift the composite score most.
EV/EBITDA 20% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
Gross Margin IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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