SABR

We rate Sabre Corp (SABR) as Avoid with a composite score of 34.2/100 at a current price of $0.83. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (84th percentile) and quality (37th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (13th percentile) and stability (21th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (27/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Sabre Corp holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 34.2/100 places it at rank #4193 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $722M in market capitalization, Sabre Corp is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -7% combined with momentum at the 13th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 57% (-2.6pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 12% (+8.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 19.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 34%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $0.83, Sabre Corp appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 84/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 0.7x (a 97% discount to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 10.1x (near the sector median), P/S of 0.1x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Sabre Corp. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.06), below-average price stability (21th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.06); below-average price stability (21th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 21th percentile and quality factor at the 37th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 57% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Sabre Corp's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-86.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Sabre Corp significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Sabre Corp receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 34.2/100 (rank #4193 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (27/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 37/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Sabre Corp at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.