RLJ

We rate RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.7/100 at a current price of $8.01. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (59th percentile) and value (57th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (33th percentile) and investment (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (22/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

RLJ Lodging Trust holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.7/100 places it at rank #2528 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.1B in market capitalization, RLJ Lodging Trust is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -11% combined with momentum at the 38th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 92% (+15.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 10% (-6.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 4%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $8.01, RLJ Lodging Trust is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 57/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 25.5x (a 114% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.7x (at a premium), P/B of 0.6x, P/S of 0.9x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to RLJ Lodging Trust. Key risk factors include significant leverage (101% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (33th percentile), the combination of leverage (101% D/E) and thin margins (3.4% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (101% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (33th percentile); the combination of leverage (101% D/E) and thin margins (3.4% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 33th percentile and quality factor at the 59th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 92% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 8.33% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate RLJ Lodging Trust's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (2.2%), weak asset returns (ROA 1.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — RLJ Lodging Trust significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, RLJ Lodging Trust receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.7/100 (rank #2528 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (22/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 44/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on RLJ Lodging Trust at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.