PINE

We rate Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.5/100 at a current price of $20.01. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (74th percentile) and stability (69th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (24th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (35/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; the path to profitability; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.5/100 places it at rank #2402 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At N/A in market capitalization, Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 17% and momentum in the 74th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 25th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 86% (+9.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 24% (+7.3pp vs sector) and net margins of -1.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -2%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $20.01, Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 49.9x (at a premium), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 5.3x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (125% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -1.5%), weak quality scores (24th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (125% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -1.5%); weak quality scores (24th percentile); low beta of 0.24 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 69th percentile and quality factor at the 24th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 86% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (69th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-0.4%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -0.2%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.5/100 (rank #2402 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (35/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.