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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2158
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$2.4B
Gal Krubiner
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates as a financial technology company in Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. It develops and implements proprietary artificial intelligence technology and related software solutions to assist partners to originate loans and other assets. Its partners include high-growth financial technology companies, incumbent financial institutions, auto finance providers, and brokers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = PGY ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$PGY Pagaya Technologies Ltd. | 49 | 82 | 72 | 42 | 39.4x | 4.6x | -5.9% | -2.2% | 42.1% | 16.3% | -4.1% | 39.9% | 0.0% | 166.0x | $2.4B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 49.0/100. It ranks #2158 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Headcount
800
HQ Base
Pending Verification
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for PGY.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 82 | 98 | -16DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 42 | 41 | +1NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 72 | 93 | -21DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 24 | 14 | +10ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 7 | 2 | +5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 37 | 30 | +7ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 19.9% vs WACC 7.5% (spread +12.4%)
GM 42% vs sector 78%, OM 16% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.87x, R&D intensity 5.8%
Rev growth 40%, 4yr history
Interest coverage 3.2x, Net debt/EBITDA 5.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.0/100 at a current price of $11.00. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.0/100 places it at rank #2158 in our full universe.
Narrow
Very High
Poor
Undervalued
Gross margins of 42% signal strong pricing power.
Value factor score of 72 suggests attractive pricing.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 39.4x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 166% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 49.0/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2158 out of 7,333 stocks. PGY's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
PGY earns a quality score of 82/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -5.9% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 42.1% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of -4.1% (sector avg: 21.9%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
PGY carries a solid value score of 72/100, pointing to an attractively priced stock relative to peers. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 39.41x, an EV/EBITDA of 4.63x, a P/B ratio of 1.78x. This score suggests reasonable compensation for the risks involved, with potential upside if the market recognizes the stock's underlying worth.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s investment score of 24/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 39.9% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of -2.2% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
PGY is currently showing below-average momentum at 42/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 39.9% year-over-year, while a beta of 2.40 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. registers a low stability score of 7/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 2.40 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 166.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s short interest score of 37/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 2.40), elevated leverage (D/E: 166.00x). At $2.4B (mid-cap), PGY carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a mid-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2158 of 7,333 overall (71st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -5.9% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 16.3% below the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While PGY currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (7) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 40% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 166% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 46% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, exceeding EPS estimates and achieving record GAAP profitability for the year. However, the company's cautious outlook for Q1 and full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA, which falls below analyst consensus, led to a significant stock price plunge in pre-market trading. This indicates that while past performance was strong, future growth projections are tempering investor enthusiasm.
Pagaya Technologies LTD. announced the closing of a new $600 million AAA-rated asset-backed securitization (PAID 2025-4), bringing its Q2 2025 ABS transactions to over $2.3 billion, a company record. This deal, which was oversubscribed and upsized with 23 investors, reinforces Pagaya's consistent funding execution across various asset classes, including personal loans, auto loans, and point-of-sale financing. The company has now raised nearly $30 billion across 73 ABS transactions since 2018, demonstrating institutional confidence in its AI-driven platform.
Pagaya Technologies LTD. announced a $75 million investment from its longtime investor, Oak HC/FT, in the form of a convertible perpetual preferred security. This investment, with a conversion price premium of approximately 36% to Pagaya's closing price on April 19, 2023, is intended to accelerate Pagaya's strategic M&A activities, particularly acquisitions, and to support its continued growth in leveraging AI for financial services. The company also anticipates exceeding its Q1 2023 guidance for Network Volume, Revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA.
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) is one of the 9 small-cap software infrastructure stocks with the highest upside potential. On February 10, the price target on Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ:PGY) was reduced from $48 to $33 by Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer. He maintained his Buy rating on the stock with a revised upside potential of more than 168%. […]
Pagaya Technologies (NasdaqCM:PGY) has reached GAAP profitability, reporting record net income. The company attributes the result to strong revenue growth and improved operational efficiency. Pagaya has tightened underwriting standards, focusing more on credit quality and lowering exposure to higher risk segments. Pagaya Technologies, trading at $12.59, is coming off a challenging stretch, with the stock down 42.7% over the past month and 43.5% year to date. Against that backdrop, the...
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081