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PGR Stock Analysis: Hold (Score 54.6/100) | Blank Capital Research | Blank Capital Research
PGR
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
$199.88
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Score54.6
Data as of Apr 6, 2026
PGR
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/
FinancialsInsurance
$199.88
+0.00 (+0.00%)
Open ---High ---Low ---Prev $199.88Vol ---52W: $197.92 – $289.96
Hold
Composite score
01234567890123456789.0123456789
Global rank
#800
Percentile
Top 18%
Business quality
76th
percentile
Exceptional capital efficiency and structural profitability. This enterprise generates superior returns on invested capital compared to industry peers.
Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 76.2GRADE B+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
35.3%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
1.98%
Trailing Yield
$1.98
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
21%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
Unlock Valuation Tools
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 54.6/100, ranked #800 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 76/100, Value 75/100, Momentum 27/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ Do?
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio. PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Insurance industry. The company is led by CEO Susan P. Griffith and employs approximately 55,100 people, headquartered in MAYFIELD VILLAGE, Ohio. With a market capitalization of $113.1B, PGR is one of the prominent companies in the Financials sector.
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.PGR ranks #800 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ ranks #238 of 891 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
PGR Stock Price and 52-Week Range
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) currently trades at $199.88. The 52-week high for PGR is $289.96, which means the stock is currently trading -31.1% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $197.92, putting the stock 1.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 0 shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is PGR Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) carries a value factor score of 75/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 10.77x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a discount of 28%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 3.80x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 1.36x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, PGR trades at 8.51x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) earns a quality factor score of 76/100, reflecting elite profitability and capital efficiency that places it among the highest-quality businesses in the market. The return on equity (ROE) is 35.3%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which demonstrates strong shareholder value creation. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 8.7% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 15.2% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 12.6%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 24.1% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. These metrics collectively paint a picture of a highly profitable business with durable competitive advantages.
PGR Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ has a debt-to-equity ratio of 306.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.33x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $6.90B. Cash and equivalents stand at $173M.
PGR has a beta of 0.23, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ is 84/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reported revenue of $84.58B and earnings per share (EPS) of $19.29. Net income for the quarter was $10.69B. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $31.51B.
In FY 2025, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reported revenue of $87.67B and earnings per share (EPS) of $19.29. Net income for the quarter was $11.31B. Revenue grew 16.7% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $14.22B.
In Q3 2025, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reported revenue of $22.51B and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.46. Net income for the quarter was $2.62B. Revenue grew 14.2% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $3.32B.
In Q2 2025, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ reported revenue of $21.93B and earnings per share (EPS) of $5.42. Net income for the quarter was $3.17B. Gross margin was -0.3%. Revenue grew 21.0% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $22.00B.
Over the past 8 quarters, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $18.13B to $84.58B. Investors analyzing PGR stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
PGR Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) currently pays a dividend yield of 2.0%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in PGR stock would generate approximately $$198.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning PGR yields less than the typical sector peer. The net margin of 12.6% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
PGR Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) has a momentum factor score of 27/100, signaling weak relative price performance. Stocks with low momentum scores have historically tended to continue underperforming in the near term. The investment factor score is 25/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 28/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
PGR vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing PGR against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full PGR vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
PGR Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy PGR? — Investment Thesis Summary
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 76/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 75/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Momentum is weak at 27/100, a headwind for near-term performance. Low volatility (stability score 84/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on PGR stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (PGR) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Progressive Corp. currently holds a 3-star (Hold) rating, a position supported by a balanced assessment of its quality and value metrics offset by weaker momentum and investment scores. While the company demonstrates strong profitability and attractive valuation multiples relative to the sector, concerns arise from its negative free cash flow and relatively high debt-to-equity ratio. The insurance industry is intensely competitive and subject to regulatory scrutiny, making sustained outperformance challenging. Therefore, a Hold rating is warranted until clearer trends emerge regarding cash flow generation and debt management.
Progressive's impressive revenue growth and high ROE are counterbalanced by its negative free cash flow and lower operating and net margins compared to the sector. The company's strategic focus on data analytics and personalized pricing offers a potential edge, but the sustainability of this advantage in the face of increasing competition and evolving regulatory landscapes remains uncertain. The current valuation appears reasonable, but the risks associated with its capital allocation strategy and potential for adverse selection in its insurance underwriting necessitate a cautious approach.
Business Strategy & Overview
Progressive operates as a property and casualty insurance provider, primarily focusing on personal and commercial auto insurance. The company differentiates itself through its emphasis on data analytics and personalized pricing, aiming to accurately assess risk and offer competitive premiums. This strategy involves collecting and analyzing vast amounts of data to segment customers and tailor insurance policies to individual needs. Progressive distributes its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly to consumers via the internet, mobile devices, and phone, providing multiple channels for customer acquisition and service.
The company's strategic positioning within the insurance industry involves a focus on both growth and profitability. Progressive actively seeks to expand its market share in both personal and commercial lines, while also maintaining underwriting discipline to ensure profitable operations. This involves carefully managing claims expenses, controlling operating costs, and optimizing pricing strategies. The company also invests in technology and innovation to improve its efficiency and enhance the customer experience.
Progressive's product pipeline includes the development of new insurance products and services, as well as enhancements to existing offerings. The company continuously evaluates market trends and customer needs to identify opportunities for product innovation. This may involve introducing new coverage options, expanding into new geographic markets, or developing specialized insurance solutions for specific customer segments. The company's focus on data analytics also supports its product development efforts, allowing it to identify emerging risks and tailor insurance products to address those risks.
The insurance industry is characterized by intense competition, with numerous players vying for market share. Progressive competes with large national insurers, as well as regional and local providers. The industry is also subject to regulatory oversight, which can impact pricing, product offerings, and distribution channels. Progressive must navigate these competitive and regulatory challenges to maintain its market position and achieve its strategic objectives. The company's direct channel strategy is a key differentiator, allowing it to bypass traditional agency commissions and potentially offer lower prices to consumers.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
24.1%
Sector: 9.4%
+157% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Progressive's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. While the company possesses certain competitive advantages, they are not strong enough to warrant a Wide moat rating. The primary source of Progressive's moat stems from its intangible assets, specifically its brand recognition and proprietary data analytics capabilities. The Progressive brand is well-established in the insurance market, particularly in the auto insurance segment, which provides a degree of customer loyalty and pricing power. However, brand alone is not sufficient to create a wide moat in the commoditized insurance industry.
The company's data analytics capabilities represent a more significant competitive advantage. Progressive has invested heavily in collecting and analyzing data to improve its underwriting accuracy and pricing strategies. This allows the company to better assess risk and offer competitive premiums, potentially attracting and retaining customers. However, other large insurance companies are also investing in data analytics, which could erode Progressive's advantage over time. The effectiveness of these analytics is also subject to the accuracy and completeness of the data, as well as the sophistication of the algorithms used.
Switching costs in the insurance industry are relatively low, which limits Progressive's ability to retain customers. Customers can easily switch to competing insurers if they find a better price or more attractive coverage options. This puts pressure on Progressive to maintain competitive pricing and provide excellent customer service. While Progressive's direct channel strategy may create some stickiness, it is not a significant barrier to entry or a source of sustainable competitive advantage.
Progressive does not possess significant cost advantages or benefit from efficient scale. The insurance industry is characterized by high fixed costs and relatively low marginal costs, which can create economies of scale. However, Progressive's size and scale are not significantly different from those of its major competitors, which limits its ability to achieve a cost advantage. The company's operating margin of 15.2% is lower than the sector average of 22.0%, suggesting that it does not have a significant cost advantage.
The absence of a strong network effect further weakens the company's moat. Insurance is not a business where the value of the service increases as more people use it. While a larger customer base can provide more data for analysis, this benefit is not unique to Progressive and does not create a significant competitive advantage. Therefore, while Progressive has some advantages, they are not strong enough to create a wide moat, justifying a narrow moat rating.
Financial Health & Profitability
Progressive's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a TTM revenue of $87.67 billion, representing a 24.1% increase compared to the sector average of 9.3%. This growth is further evidenced by the consistent revenue increases observed in the quarterly financial history, from $62.11B in FY2023 to $87.67B in FY2025. However, this growth has not translated into proportionally higher profitability margins.
While the company's ROE of 35.3% significantly exceeds the sector average of 8.5%, indicating efficient use of equity, its operating margin of 15.2% and net margin of 12.6% are lower than the sector averages of 22.0% and 17.8%, respectively. This suggests that Progressive may be facing challenges in controlling its operating expenses or that its pricing strategies are less profitable than those of its peers. The fluctuating operating margins in the quarterly data, particularly the unusually high 100.3% in Q2 FY2025 and 100.4% in FY2024, warrant further investigation to understand the underlying drivers and sustainability.
A significant concern is the company's negative free cash flow of $-5.68 billion. This contrasts sharply with the positive free cash flow of $3.16 billion in FY2024. The negative free cash flow raises questions about the company's ability to fund its operations and investments without relying on external financing. The large negative FCF in Q2 2025 of $-6.11B is particularly concerning. The company's total cash of $173 million appears low relative to its market capitalization and revenue, further emphasizing the need for improved cash flow generation.
Progressive's balance sheet exhibits a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio of 306.00, significantly exceeding the sector average of 115.00. This indicates a higher level of financial leverage, which could increase the company's vulnerability to economic downturns or adverse events. The current ratio of 1.33 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, but the high debt level warrants close monitoring. The company's ability to manage its debt and generate positive free cash flow will be crucial for its long-term financial health.
Valuation Assessment
Progressive's valuation presents a mixed picture, with some metrics suggesting undervaluation while others indicate a fair or even slightly rich valuation. The company's P/E ratio of 10.7x is significantly lower than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.1x is substantially lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further supporting the undervaluation thesis. These multiples imply that investors are not fully recognizing the company's earnings potential.
However, the negative free cash flow complicates the valuation assessment. Traditional valuation methods that rely on free cash flow, such as discounted cash flow analysis, are difficult to apply when free cash flow is negative. This makes it challenging to determine the intrinsic value of the stock based on its cash flow generating capabilities. The negative free cash flow also raises concerns about the sustainability of the company's earnings and its ability to fund future growth.
The company's high ROE of 35.3% could justify a higher valuation multiple, as it indicates efficient use of equity. However, the lower operating and net margins compared to the sector suggest that the company's earnings quality may be lower than that of its peers. This could warrant a lower valuation multiple to reflect the potential for margin compression in the future.
Considering the company's strong revenue growth, high ROE, and relatively low valuation multiples, the stock appears to be fairly valued. However, the negative free cash flow and high debt-to-equity ratio introduce significant risks that need to be considered. The market may be discounting the stock to reflect these risks, which could explain the lower valuation multiples. A more conservative valuation approach may be warranted until the company demonstrates a consistent ability to generate positive free cash flow and reduce its debt burden.
Risk & Uncertainty
Progressive faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is adverse selection in its insurance underwriting. The company's reliance on data analytics and personalized pricing could lead to a situation where it attracts a disproportionate share of high-risk customers, resulting in higher claims expenses and lower profitability. This risk is particularly relevant in the competitive insurance market, where customers can easily switch to competing insurers if they perceive Progressive's pricing to be too high.
Regulatory risk is another important consideration. The insurance industry is subject to extensive regulatory oversight at both the state and federal levels. Changes in regulations could impact Progressive's pricing, product offerings, and distribution channels. For example, regulations that limit the use of certain data in underwriting could reduce the effectiveness of the company's data analytics capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny of pricing practices could also lead to restrictions on the company's ability to charge risk-based premiums.
Competition within the insurance industry is intense. Progressive competes with large national insurers, as well as regional and local providers. The industry is also subject to disruption from new entrants, such as technology companies that are leveraging data and analytics to offer innovative insurance products and services. Increased competition could put pressure on Progressive's pricing and market share, leading to lower revenue and profitability.
The company's high debt-to-equity ratio also poses a risk. A high level of financial leverage increases the company's vulnerability to economic downturns or adverse events. If the company experiences a decline in revenue or profitability, it may struggle to meet its debt obligations, which could lead to financial distress. The negative free cash flow further exacerbates this risk, as it reduces the company's ability to repay its debt.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWProgressive's superior data analytics and personalized pricing will continue to drive market share gains and improve underwriting profitability, leading to sustained outperformance.
BULL VIEWThe company's direct channel strategy provides a competitive advantage by reducing distribution costs and allowing for more direct customer engagement, resulting in higher customer retention.
BULL VIEWProgressive's strong brand recognition and reputation for innovation will attract new customers and allow the company to command premium pricing, boosting revenue and earnings growth.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWProgressive's negative free cash flow and high debt levels raise concerns about its financial sustainability and ability to fund future growth initiatives.
BEAR VIEWIncreased competition from technology-driven insurance providers and regulatory scrutiny of data analytics practices will erode Progressive's competitive advantages and pressure its margins.
BEAR VIEWAdverse selection in Progressive's underwriting practices will lead to higher claims expenses and lower profitability, offsetting any benefits from its data analytics capabilities.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score PGR and 4,400+ other equities.
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ exhibits a 99% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
8.7%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
15.2%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
12.6%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta-20%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $198 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
