PEBO

We rate PEOPLES BANCORP INC (PEBO) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.4/100 at a current price of $32.50. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (68th percentile) and momentum (55th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (28th percentile) and value (40th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (41/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

PEOPLES BANCORP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.4/100 places it at rank #2418 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.1B in market capitalization, PEOPLES BANCORP INC is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 5%, though momentum at the 55th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 162% (+145.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 125.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $32.50, PEOPLES BANCORP INC is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 40/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.4x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.4x (at a premium), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 14.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to PEOPLES BANCORP INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.65, conservative leverage (19% D/E), and a stability factor in the 68th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (28th percentile); low beta of 0.65 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 68th percentile and quality factor at the 28th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (19% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (68th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 5.40% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate PEOPLES BANCORP INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 9.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 19%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; PEOPLES BANCORP INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 5.40% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, PEOPLES BANCORP INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.4/100 (rank #2418 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (41/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on PEOPLES BANCORP INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.