PACK

We rate Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.1/100 at a current price of $5.16. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (57th percentile) and investment (45th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (32th percentile) and momentum (36th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (21/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Ranpak Holdings Corp. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.1/100 places it at rank #3259 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $474M in market capitalization, Ranpak Holdings Corp. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 15%, though momentum at the 36th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 34% (-8.2pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -7% (-8.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -9.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -29%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $5.16, Ranpak Holdings Corp. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 57/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 114.0x (at a premium), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 1.2x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to Ranpak Holdings Corp.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.08), current negative profitability (net margin -9.8%), below-average price stability (32th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 2.08); current negative profitability (net margin -9.8%); below-average price stability (32th percentile); the combination of leverage (75% D/E) and thin margins (-9.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 32th percentile and quality factor at the 43th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-6.9%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -3.3%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Ranpak Holdings Corp. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Ranpak Holdings Corp. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 42.1/100 (rank #3259 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (21/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Ranpak Holdings Corp. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.