OXSQ

We rate Oxford Square Capital Corp. (OXSQ) as Avoid with a composite score of 37.3/100 at a current price of $1.77. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (40th percentile) and stability (37th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (25th percentile) and quality (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (11/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Oxford Square Capital Corp. holds a lower-quartile position (#29 of 38) within the Financial sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 37.3/100 places it at rank #3865 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $117M in market capitalization, Oxford Square Capital Corp. is a small-cap player in the Financial space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue contraction of -51% combined with momentum at the 25th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-100.0pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 34% (-25.1pp vs sector) and net margins of -24.9%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $1.77, Oxford Square Capital Corp. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 34/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 24.7x (a 151% premium to the sector median of 9.8x), EV/EBITDA of 13.7x (at a premium), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 5.3x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to Oxford Square Capital Corp.. Key risk factors include current negative profitability (net margin -24.9%), below-average price stability (37th percentile), weak quality scores (32th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -24.9%); below-average price stability (37th percentile); weak quality scores (32th percentile); low beta of 0.50 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 37th percentile and quality factor at the 32th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 28.45% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate Oxford Square Capital Corp.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-4.2%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -2.1%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — Oxford Square Capital Corp. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, Oxford Square Capital Corp. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 37.3/100 (rank #3865 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (11/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 34/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on Oxford Square Capital Corp. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.