IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2253
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Computer Software
$609M
Matthew P. Moynahan
OneSpan Inc. designs, develops, markets digital solutions for identity, security, and business productivity worldwide. The company also provides mobile authenticators, cloud-based authentication, and multi-factor authentication solutions. It sells its solutions through direct sales force, as well as through distributors, resellers, systems integrators, and original equipment manufacturers.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = OSPN ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$OSPN OneSpan Inc. | 49 | 68 | 64 | 24 | 11.5x | 9.2x | 15.8% | 11.0% | 73.8% | 19.8% | 15.7% | -6.3% | 2.3% | 44.0x | $609M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 48.5/100. It ranks #2253 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Matthew P. Moynahan
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
790
68
32
64
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for OSPN
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for OSPN.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 68 | 74 | -6DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 24 | 5 | +19ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 64 | 51 | +13ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 32 | 45 | -13DRAG |
| STABILITY | 64 | 55 | +9ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 49 | 48 | +1NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy 15.8% (sector -2.5%)
GM 74% vs sector 43%, OM 20% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover N/A, R&D intensity 14.5%
Rev growth -6%, 10yr history
Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -9.6x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
OneSpan Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 48.5/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2253 out of 7,333 stocks. OSPN's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
OSPN earns a quality score of 68/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 15.8% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 73.8% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of 15.7% (sector avg: -0.2%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
OSPN's value score of 64/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 11.50x, an EV/EBITDA of 9.17x, a P/B ratio of 1.82x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
OneSpan Inc.'s investment score of 32/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -6.3% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of 11.0% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
OneSpan Inc. is experiencing notably weak momentum with a score of just 24/100. The stock has underperformed its peers and is trending below major moving averages. Revenue growth stands at -6.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.06 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. While deep momentum weakness can occasionally present value opportunities, it often reflects deteriorating fundamentals or structural headwinds that may persist.
With a stability score of 64/100, OSPN exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.06 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 44.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
The short interest score of 49/100 for OSPN suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 44.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $609M market cap (small-cap), OneSpan Inc. may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
OSPN pays a solid dividend yield of 2.3%, contributing an income component to total returns. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
OneSpan Inc. is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2253 of 7,333 overall (69th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 15.8% exceeding the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of 19.8% above the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While OSPN currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Momentum (24) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 20% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 737% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 74% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) as a Reduce with a composite score of 48.5/100 at a current price of $10.85. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (68th percentile) and stability (64th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (24th percentile) and investment (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (46/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
OneSpan Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 48.5/100 places it at rank #2253 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $609M in market capitalization, OneSpan Inc. is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue contraction of -6% combined with momentum at the 24th percentile paints a cautious picture of the near-term business outlook. The market appears to be pricing in continued challenges, and a catalyst for reversal is not clearly visible from current data.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 74% (+31.3pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 20% (+18.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 15.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 21%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.
At a current price of $10.85, OneSpan Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 64/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.5x (a 48% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 9.2x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.8x, P/S of 1.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.
Gross margins of 74% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Returns on equity of 15.8% exceed the cost of equity for most companies, indicating genuine shareholder value creation and a reinvestment engine that compounds wealth over time.
A 2.27% dividend yield provides income while you wait, and dividends historically account for a significant portion of total equity returns.
Return on assets of 11.0% indicates efficient deployment of the full asset base, not just equity capital.
The Reduce rating (composite 48.5/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
We assign a Low uncertainty rating to OneSpan Inc.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.06, conservative leverage (44% D/E), and a stability factor in the 64th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.
We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 64th percentile with quality at the 68th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 74% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (64th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.27% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate OneSpan Inc.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 15.8%, disciplined leverage (44% D/E), a 2.27% dividend yield. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — OneSpan Inc. approaches this high bar.
The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 2.27% dividend yield, and the combination of 11.0% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.
In summary, OneSpan Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 48.5/100 (rank #2253 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (46/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 50/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on OneSpan Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, low uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign OneSpan Inc. a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 46/100. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that OneSpan Inc. can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being margin superiority at 18.8/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (18.8/20) and financial resilience (9.9/20). GM 74% vs sector 43%, OM 20% vs sector 1%. Interest coverage N/A, Net debt/EBITDA -9.6x. These pillars form the core of OneSpan Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include growth durability (4.7/20) and reinvestment efficiency (5.1/20). Rev growth -6%, 10yr history. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect OneSpan Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 74% providing a solid profitability foundation, operating margins of 20% reflecting effective cost management, declining revenues (-6%) that pressure the earnings outlook. The margin cascade from 74% gross to 20% operating to 15.7% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that the profit engine is high-quality and likely sustainable, with the quality factor at the 68th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 74%, operating margins of 20%, net margins of 15.7%. Return metrics include ROE of 15.8% and ROA of 11.0%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 31.3 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of 15.8% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with D/E of 44%, a dividend yield of 2.27%, revenue growth of -6%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting OneSpan Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. The combination of low leverage and healthy profitability provides significant financial resilience and strategic optionality.
Revenue decline of -6% signals business deterioration — declining revenues make it difficult to grow into the current valuation and often precede further negative revisions.
Weak momentum (24th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
On January 12, OneSpan Inc. (NASDAQ:OSPN) said it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Build38, a company known for its work in next-generation mobile application protection.
The cybersecurity and technology sector is experiencing significant consolidation with major M&A activity. Marvell Technology acquired XConn Technologies for $540 million to expand its switching portfolio for AI data centers. ASGN agreed to acquire Quinnox for $290 million to enhance digital engineering capabilities. OneSpan is acquiring Build38 to strengthen mobile application security. DXC Technology partnered with Ripple to integrate blockchain capabilities into banking platforms. The sector is projected to see cybersecurity spending exceed $520 billion in 2026.
Shares of HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) fell sharply during Thursday’s session after the company reported worse-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue results. HighPeak Energy posted GAAP earnings of 66 cents per share, versus market estimates of 65 cents per share. The company’s quarterly sales came in at $301.153 million versus expectations of $339.525 million. HighPeak Energy shares declined 15.3% to $13.49 on Thursday. Here are some other stocks moving in today's mid-day session. Gainers Lytus Technologies Holdings PTV. Ltd. (NASDAQ: LYT) shares jumped 404% to $11.65 after the company announced the launch of Lytus Cloud. CERo Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CERO) gained 167% to $6.81. CERo Therapeutics announced the publication in clinical cancer research a paper titled "Therapeutic Targeting of TIM-4-L With Engineered T CellsFor Acute Myeloid Leukemia." Brera Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: BREA) shares climbed 97.5% to $2.0150 after the company announced that its Executive Chairman, Daniel McClory, acquired a majority stake in the company. Grom Social Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ: GROM) gained 88.3% to $1.45. The company announced that it entered into a non-binding letter of intent to acquire Arctic7. Creative Medical Technology Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CELZ) rose 43% to $6.83. Creative Medical Technology announces FDA authorization for groundbreaking Type 1 diabetes prevention therapy under expanded access. Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc. (NASDAQ: MNMD) gained 40.5% to $8.35 after the company received FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for its MM120 program in generalized anxiety disorder. The company also announced 12-week durability data from its Phase 2B study of MM120. ImmunoPrecise Antibodies Ltd. (NASDAQ: IPA) jumped 34.2% to $2.1601 after the company announced that its subsidiary BioStrand developed a Foundation AI Model that uses Large Language Models Stacking and HYFT Technology. Beneficient (NASDAQ: BENF) shares rose 28.7% to $0.1287. Beneficient agreed to the financing of liquidity transactions for three separate funds managed by ff Venture Capital. MoneyLion Inc. (NYSE: ML) gained 28.3% to $67.43 ...
Shares of Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (NYSE: RSI) rose sharply in today’s pre-market trading as the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results and issued strong revenue guidance for 2024. Rush Street Interactive posted adjusted earnings of 1 cent per share, versus market expectations for a loss of 3 cents per share. The company’s quarterly sales came in at $193.85 million, topping estimates of $178.56 million. Rush Street Interactive shares surged 25.2% to $6.75 in pre-market trading Here are some other stocks moving in pre-market trading. Gainers Lytus Technologies Holdings PTV. Ltd. (NASDAQ: LYT) gained 275.6% to $8.68 in pre-market trading after the company announced the launch of Lytus Cloud. Brera Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: BREA) shares rose 199% to $3.05 in pre-market trading. Brera Holdings said its Executive Chairman Daniel McClory acquired a majority stake in the company. Beneficient (NASDAQ: BENF) shares rose 61.1% to $0.1611 in pre-market trading. Beneficient agreed to the financing of liquidity transactions for three separate funds managed by ff Venture Capital. Mustang Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ:
U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones falling around 40 points on Monday. Shares of monday.com Ltd. (NASDAQ: MNDY) gained on Monday following upbeat earnings. Monday.com posted adjusted earnings of 64 cents per share, beating market estimates of 20 cents per share. The company’s sales came in at $189.19 million versus expectations of $182.36 million. The company said it sees Q4 revenue of $196 million to $198 million and FY23 revenue of $723 million to $725 million. monday.com shares climbed 9.9% to $154.03 during Monday’s session. Here are some big stocks recording gains in today’s session. Montauk Renewables, Inc. (NASDAQ: MNTK) shares jumped 23% to $7.91. Scotiabank upgraded Montauk Renewables from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform and announced a ...