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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2579
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$907M
James L. Eccher
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services. It provides demand, NOW, money market, savings, time deposit, individual retirement, and checking accounts. The company also offers commercial loans; lease financing receivables; commercial real estate loans; construction loans; home equity line of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans.
Headcount
890
HQ Base
Aurora, Illinois
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = OSBC ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$OSBC OLD SECOND BANCORP INC | 46 | 32 | 39 | 66 | 14.6x | 11.0x | 8.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 31.6% | 23.9% | 42.1% | 1.4% | 707.0x | $907M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
OLD SECOND BANCORP INC (OSBC) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 46.4/100. It ranks #2579 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for OSBC.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 32 | 46 | -14DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 66 | 73 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 39 | 40 | -1NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 41 | 78 | -37DRAG |
| STABILITY | 50 | 50 | 0NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 48 | 50 | -2NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 8.9% (spread -4.6%)
GM 0% vs sector 78%, OM 32% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.44x
Rev growth 42%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 0.6x, Net debt/EBITDA 18.1x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate OLD SECOND BANCORP INC (OSBC) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.4/100 at a current price of $19.79. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
OLD SECOND BANCORP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.4/100 places it at rank #2579 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 42% and momentum in the 66th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 707% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
OLD SECOND BANCORP INC represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
OLD SECOND BANCORP INC receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 46.4/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2579 out of 7,333 stocks. OSBC's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
OSBC's quality score of 32/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 8.6% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 23.9% (sector avg: 21.9%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 39/100, OSBC appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 14.55x, an EV/EBITDA of 11.02x, a P/B ratio of 1.25x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
With an investment score of 41/100, OSBC exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 42.1% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 1.1% (sector: 1.3%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
OSBC demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 66/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 42.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.81 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
With a stability score of 50/100, OSBC exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.81 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 707.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
The short interest score of 48/100 for OSBC suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 707.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $907M market cap (small-cap), OLD SECOND BANCORP INC may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
OSBC offers a modest dividend yield of 1.4%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
OLD SECOND BANCORP INC is a small-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2579 of 7,333 overall (65th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 8.6% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 31.6% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While OSBC currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Quality (32) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 42% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Old Second Bancorp announced a $43.9 million share repurchase program authorized by its Board of Directors, following a non-objection letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The buybacks will be executed through various methods, with timing and pricing determined by management, and any repurchases after December 31, 2026, will require further regulatory approval. Analysts currently rate OSBC stock as a "Buy" with a $22.00 price target, and TipRanks' AI Analyst assesses it as "Outperform" due to solid financial strength and a constructive earnings outlook.
Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) announced a $43.9 million share repurchase program on January 27, 2026, which was approved by the Federal Reserve on January 8, 2026. The repurchases can be conducted through various methods, and management will determine the timing and quantity. Any repurchases after 2026 will require additional Federal Reserve approval.
Old Second Bancorp's stock has seen a mild decline recently, underperforming larger banks but aligning with regional peers, as investors cautiously assess the regional banking sector. Despite solid profitability and credit quality, the stock is trading below its 52-week highs, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rates, funding costs, and potential credit quality weakening. Analysts maintain a generally constructive outlook, rating OSBC as Buy to Overweight, but acknowledge that its future performance hinges on interest rate trajectories, sustained credit quality, and organic growth in a competitive Midwest market.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSBC) has received an average rating of "Moderate Buy" from five brokerages, with an average 12-month price target of $22.63. The company recently reported strong quarterly results, beating EPS and revenue estimates, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07. Insider activity shows an EVP selling 2,000 shares, while institutional investors own approximately 67.8% of the stock.
Old Second Bancorp (OSBC) is back in focus after its board approved a share repurchase program of up to US$43.9 million, following a Federal Reserve non objection and fresh fourth quarter results. See our latest analysis for Old Second Bancorp. The share repurchase announcement lands after a period of steady gains, with a 90 day share price return of 9.67% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 86.07%, which points to momentum that has built gradually rather than in sharp spikes. If this...