OPFI

We rate OppFi Inc. (OPFI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.1/100 at a current price of $9.10. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (77th percentile) and value (67th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (14th percentile) and stability (18th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (42/100), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

OppFi Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.1/100 places it at rank #2950 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.0B in market capitalization, OppFi Inc. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 21%, though momentum at the 14th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 90% (+13.4pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 41% (+23.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 32.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 36%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $9.10, OppFi Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 67/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 1.8x (a 85% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 1.9x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 0.6x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to OppFi Inc.. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.50), significant leverage (160% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (18th percentile). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.50); significant leverage (160% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (18th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 18th percentile and quality factor at the 77th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 90% provide a buffer against cost pressures; a 3.27% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate OppFi Inc.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 50.4%, a 3.27% dividend yield, best-in-class net margins of 32.5%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — OppFi Inc. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. The company returns capital via a 3.27% dividend yield, and the combination of 19.4% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, OppFi Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.1/100 (rank #2950 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (42/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 42/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on OppFi Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and exemplary capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.