OPAL

We rate OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL) as Avoid with a composite score of 25.2/100 at a current price of $2.04. The stock falls in the bottom quintile of our universe across key quantitative factors, and the multi-factor weakness suggests a high probability of continued underperformance.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in investment (31th percentile) and value (26th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in momentum (18th percentile) and stability (20th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (29/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

OPAL Fuels Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 25.2/100 places it at rank #4764 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $381M in market capitalization, OPAL Fuels Inc. is a small-cap player in the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 17%, though momentum at the 18th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 31% (-24.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (-13.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 11.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 36%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $2.04, OPAL Fuels Inc. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 26/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 1.6x (a 90% discount to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 31.4x (at a premium), P/B of 5.9x, P/S of 0.2x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to OPAL Fuels Inc.. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (3420% debt-to-equity), below-average price stability (20th percentile), weak quality scores (23th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (3420% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (20th percentile); weak quality scores (23th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 20th percentile and quality factor at the 23th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our very high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate OPAL Fuels Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (3420% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — OPAL Fuels Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, OPAL Fuels Inc. receives a Avoid rating with a composite score of 25.2/100 (rank #4764 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (29/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 24/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on OPAL Fuels Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.