ONB

We rate OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.9/100 at a current price of $23.97. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (58th percentile) and stability (45th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (27th percentile) and investment (29th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (26/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.9/100 places it at rank #2814 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $8.6B in market capitalization, OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 6%, though momentum at the 58th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 25% (+7.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 21.3%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $23.97, OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 33/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 16.5x (a 38% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 13.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 3.5x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (749% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (27th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (749% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (27th percentile). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 45th percentile and quality factor at the 27th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 2.55% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (749% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.9/100 (rank #2814 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (26/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 38/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.