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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 60GRADE B
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
13.4%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
2.27%
Trailing Yield
$2.27
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
35%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 56.6/100, ranked #508 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 60/100, Value 70/100, Momentum 58/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does NORTHERN TRUST CORP Do?
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Corporate & Institutional Services (C&IS) and Wealth Management. The C&IS segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. The company also provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Banking industry. The company is led by CEO Michael G. O'Grady and employs approximately 23,600 people, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. With a market capitalization of $26.2B, NTRS is one of the prominent companies in the Financials sector.
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, NORTHERN TRUST CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NTRS ranks #508 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, NORTHERN TRUST CORP ranks #162 of 891 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NTRS Stock Price and 52-Week Range
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) currently trades at $152.23. The stock lost $0.40 (0.3%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NTRS is $157.60, which means the stock is currently trading -3.4% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $81.62, putting the stock 86.5% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 825K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is NTRS Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) carries a value factor score of 70/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 15.55x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a premium of 5%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.08x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 5.50x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, NTRS trades at 11.70x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, NORTHERN TRUST CORP appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
NORTHERN TRUST CORP Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) earns a quality factor score of 60/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 13.4%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.0% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, NORTHERN TRUST CORP reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 47.0% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 35.4%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 8.5% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
NTRS Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
NORTHERN TRUST CORP has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1267.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.08x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $13.89B. Cash and equivalents stand at $5.35B.
NTRS has a beta of 1.12, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for NORTHERN TRUST CORP is 75/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
NORTHERN TRUST CORP Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, NORTHERN TRUST CORP reported revenue of $4.91B and earnings per share (EPS) of $8.78. Net income for the quarter was $1.74B. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $2.31B.
In FY 2025, NORTHERN TRUST CORP reported revenue of $8.09B and earnings per share (EPS) of $8.78. Net income for the quarter was $1.74B. Revenue grew -2.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $2.34B.
In Q3 2025, NORTHERN TRUST CORP reported revenue of $1.27B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.30. Net income for the quarter was $458M. Revenue grew 5.8% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $620M.
In Q2 2025, NORTHERN TRUST CORP reported revenue of $1.23B and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14. Net income for the quarter was $421M. Revenue grew 5.6% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $565M.
Over the past 8 quarters, NORTHERN TRUST CORP has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.17B to $4.91B. Investors analyzing NTRS stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NTRS Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) currently pays a dividend yield of 2.3%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in NTRS stock would generate approximately $$227.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning NTRS yields less than the typical sector peer. With a net margin of 35.4%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
NTRS Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) has a momentum factor score of 58/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 30/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 32/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
NTRS vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing NTRS against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NTRS vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how NORTHERN TRUST CORP stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NTRS Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NTRS? — Investment Thesis Summary
NORTHERN TRUST CORP presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 60/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 70/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 75/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 56.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NTRS stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
NORTHERN TRUST CORP (NTRS) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) receives a Hold rating, reflecting a balanced view of its strengths and weaknesses. While the company exhibits strong profitability and stability, its relatively weak investment score and high debt levels temper enthusiasm. The current valuation appears fair, aligning with sector averages, but doesn't present a compelling buying opportunity given the risks and uncertainties.
The core takeaway is that Northern Trust is a well-established player in the asset servicing and wealth management space, but its growth prospects and capital allocation strategies warrant caution. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to manage its debt burden and improve its investment efficiency before considering a more bullish stance.
Business Strategy & Overview
Northern Trust operates through two primary segments: Corporate & Institutional Services (C&IS) and Wealth Management. The C&IS segment, which likely contributes a significant portion of revenue, focuses on providing asset servicing and related solutions to institutional clients such as retirement funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. This includes custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, and securities lending. The Wealth Management segment caters to high-net-worth individuals and families, offering trust, investment management, and private banking services.
The company's strategy centers on providing highly customized and sophisticated solutions to its clientele. This approach necessitates a strong emphasis on technology, data analytics, and regulatory compliance. Northern Trust differentiates itself through its expertise in handling complex assets and its commitment to delivering personalized service. The company also invests in expanding its global reach to serve clients with international operations and investment portfolios.
Northern Trust's revenue model is primarily fee-based, derived from assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM). This makes the company's revenue sensitive to market fluctuations and client asset flows. The company also generates revenue from banking services, securities lending, and foreign exchange transactions. The ability to attract and retain clients, as well as to grow AUC/A and AUM, is critical to Northern Trust's long-term success.
The financial services industry is highly competitive, with Northern Trust facing competition from other large custodians, asset managers, and wealth management firms. Key competitors include State Street, Bank of New York Mellon, and JPMorgan Chase. The company must continually innovate and adapt to changing client needs and regulatory requirements to maintain its competitive edge. Furthermore, the rise of fintech companies and alternative investment platforms poses a potential threat to Northern Trust's traditional business model.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
8.5%
Sector: 9.4%
IN LINE
Economic Moat Analysis
Northern Trust possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from switching costs and intangible assets. The switching costs associated with asset servicing are relatively high, as institutional clients face significant operational and regulatory hurdles when transitioning their assets to a new provider. This creates a degree of stickiness that benefits established players like Northern Trust. The company's long-standing reputation and brand recognition also contribute to its intangible assets, making it a trusted partner for sophisticated investors.
The company's expertise in handling complex assets and its commitment to personalized service further enhance its competitive advantage. Northern Trust has developed specialized capabilities in areas such as alternative investments and cross-border transactions, which are highly valued by its clientele. The company's ability to provide tailored solutions and its deep understanding of regulatory requirements differentiate it from smaller competitors.
However, the moat is not particularly wide. While switching costs exist, they are not insurmountable. Larger clients may be willing to incur these costs if they believe they can obtain better service or lower fees elsewhere. Furthermore, the commoditization of certain asset servicing functions and the increasing use of technology could erode Northern Trust's competitive advantage over time.
The company's reliance on fee-based revenue also exposes it to market fluctuations and client asset flows. A significant market downturn or a loss of key clients could negatively impact Northern Trust's earnings. While the company has a diversified client base, it is still vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and industry-specific challenges. Therefore, while a moat exists, it is not impenetrable and requires constant reinforcement through innovation and client service.
Financial Health & Profitability
Northern Trust's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company exhibits strong profitability, with a net margin of 35.4% and an operating margin of 47.0%, significantly exceeding the sector averages of 17.8% and 22.0%, respectively. The return on equity (ROE) of 13.4% is also notably higher than the sector average of 8.5%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. However, the company's revenue growth of 8.5% is slightly below the sector average of 9.3%, suggesting that it may be losing market share or facing headwinds in certain business segments.
A concerning aspect of Northern Trust's financial health is its high debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 1,267.00, which is substantially higher than the sector average of 115.00. This indicates a high degree of leverage, which could increase the company's vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns. While the company has a current ratio of 1.08, suggesting adequate liquidity, the high debt level warrants close monitoring.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals some volatility in operating margins. For example, the operating margin in Q2 FY2024 was an outlier at 100.6%, likely due to a one-time gain or accounting adjustment. Excluding this anomaly, the operating margins have generally been in the range of 25% to 50%. Revenue has shown some fluctuation, with a slight decrease from FY2024 ($8.29B) to FY2025 ($8.09B). Net income also decreased from $2.03B in FY2024 to $1.74B in FY2025.
The company's free cash flow (FCF) of $329.70M is relatively low compared to its market capitalization of $25.16B. This suggests that the company may be facing challenges in converting its earnings into cash. The company's total cash balance of $5.35B provides some financial flexibility, but it is important to consider the company's debt obligations when assessing its overall financial strength. Overall, Northern Trust's strong profitability is offset by its high debt levels and relatively weak FCF generation, warranting a cautious approach.
Valuation Assessment
Northern Trust's valuation appears to be fair, based on its current multiples. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5x is in line with the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock is neither significantly overvalued nor undervalued relative to its peers. The enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 2.7x is lower than the sector average of 3.5x, which could indicate that the company is undervalued on an enterprise value basis. However, this may also reflect the company's high debt levels, which increase its enterprise value.
The company's free cash flow (FCF) yield is relatively low, given its market capitalization and FCF generation. This suggests that the stock may not be particularly attractive to value investors seeking high cash flow returns. The company's dividend yield is not provided, but it would be an important factor to consider when assessing the stock's overall attractiveness.
Comparing Northern Trust's valuation to its historical multiples is challenging without historical data. However, it is important to consider how the company's current valuation compares to its past performance and growth prospects. If the company's growth rate is expected to slow down, a lower valuation may be justified. Conversely, if the company is expected to experience accelerated growth, a higher valuation may be warranted.
Overall, Northern Trust's valuation appears to be fair, but not compelling. The stock is trading in line with its peers, but its high debt levels and relatively weak FCF generation warrant caution. Investors should carefully consider the company's growth prospects and risk factors before making an investment decision. A more attractive entry point may be available if the stock price declines or if the company demonstrates improved financial performance.
Risk & Uncertainty
Northern Trust faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is regulatory scrutiny. As a financial institution, Northern Trust is subject to extensive regulation, including capital requirements, anti-money laundering rules, and consumer protection laws. Changes in regulations could increase the company's compliance costs and limit its ability to generate revenue. Furthermore, regulatory investigations or enforcement actions could result in significant fines and reputational damage.
Another key risk is competition. The asset servicing and wealth management industries are highly competitive, with Northern Trust facing competition from other large custodians, asset managers, and wealth management firms. The company must continually innovate and adapt to changing client needs to maintain its competitive edge. The rise of fintech companies and alternative investment platforms also poses a potential threat to Northern Trust's traditional business model.
Interest rate risk is also a significant concern, especially given the company's high debt levels. Rising interest rates could increase the company's borrowing costs and reduce its profitability. Furthermore, changes in interest rates could impact the value of the company's investment portfolio and its clients' assets. The company's ability to manage its interest rate risk is critical to its long-term success.
Finally, operational risk is a constant concern for financial institutions. Northern Trust relies on complex technology systems and processes to manage its operations. System failures, cyberattacks, or human errors could disrupt the company's business and result in financial losses. The company must invest in robust risk management and cybersecurity measures to mitigate these risks.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWNorthern Trust's strong brand and reputation in the asset servicing and wealth management industries provide a competitive advantage, allowing it to attract and retain high-net-worth clients and institutional investors.
BULL VIEWThe company's high operating and net margins, significantly above sector averages, demonstrate its efficiency and profitability, suggesting potential for continued earnings growth.
BULL VIEWNorthern Trust's focus on providing customized solutions and its expertise in handling complex assets position it well to capitalize on the growing demand for sophisticated financial services.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWNorthern Trust's high debt-to-equity ratio poses a significant risk, making the company vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and economic downturns.
BEAR VIEWThe company's relatively weak free cash flow generation and slightly below-average revenue growth raise concerns about its ability to sustain its current valuation and fund future investments.
BEAR VIEWIncreased competition from fintech companies and alternative investment platforms could erode Northern Trust's market share and pressure its fee-based revenue model.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score NTRS and 4,400+ other equities.
NORTHERN TRUST CORP exhibits a 211% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.0%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
47.0%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
35.4%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta-8%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $227 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
