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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2114
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Medical Equipment
$341M
Michael Favet
NeuroPace, Inc. develops and sells RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system for treating medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized real-time treatment at the seizure source. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$NPCE NeuroPace Inc | 49 | 48 | 48 | 61 | - | - | -130.6% | -22.6% | 76.2% | -20.4% | -26.2% | 42.0% | 0.0% | 479.0x | $341M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 49.3/100. It ranks #2114 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Michael Favet
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
170
48
34
51
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for NPCE
Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for NPCE.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 48 | 28 | +20ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 61 | 55 | +6ALPHA |
| VALUATION | 48 | 26 | +22ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 34 | 54 | -20DRAG |
| STABILITY | 51 | 35 | +16ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 50 | 49 | +1NEUTRAL |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -5.4% vs WACC 8.9% (spread -14.3%)
GM 76% vs sector 43%, OM -20% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover 0.72x, R&D intensity 28.4%
Rev growth 42%, 5yr history
Interest coverage -1.6x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
NeuroPace Inc receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 49.3/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2114 out of 7,333 stocks. NPCE's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 48/100, NPCE shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -130.6% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 76.2% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -26.2% (sector avg: -0.2%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
With a value score of 48/100, NPCE appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 25.79x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
NeuroPace Inc's investment score of 34/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 42.0% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of -22.6% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
NPCE demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 61/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 42.0% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.04 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
With a stability score of 51/100, NPCE exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.04 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 479.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
The short interest score of 50/100 for NPCE suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 479.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $341M market cap (small-cap), NeuroPace Inc may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
NeuroPace Inc is a small-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2114 of 7,333 overall (71st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -130.6% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -20.4% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While NPCE currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
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Improvement in Investment (34) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 5167% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 79% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Op. Margin 1680% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate NeuroPace Inc (NPCE) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.3/100 at a current price of $14.55. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (61th percentile) and stability (51th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (34th percentile) and value (48th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (41/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
NeuroPace Inc holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.3/100 places it at rank #2114 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $341M in market capitalization, NeuroPace Inc is a small-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 42% and momentum in the 61th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 34th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 76% (+33.7pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -20% (-21.7pp vs sector) and net margins of -26.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -34%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $14.55, NeuroPace Inc is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 48/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 25.8x, P/S of 5.1x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Gross margins of 76% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Revenue growth of 42% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
The Reduce rating (composite 49.3/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (479% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Thin net margins of -26.2% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to NeuroPace Inc. Key risk factors include significant leverage (479% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -26.2%), the combination of leverage (479% D/E) and thin margins (-26.2% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (479% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -26.2%); the combination of leverage (479% D/E) and thin margins (-26.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 51th percentile and quality factor at the 48th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 76% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate NeuroPace Inc's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-130.6%), elevated leverage (479% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -22.6%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — NeuroPace Inc significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, NeuroPace Inc receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 49.3/100 (rank #2114 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (41/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on NeuroPace Inc at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We assign NeuroPace Inc a Narrow Moat rating with a composite moat score of 41/100. The ROIC-WACC spread of -14.3% is the primary signal of economic value creation. The company possesses identifiable competitive advantages, though they are less entrenched than those of wide-moat peers. Our analysis indicates that NeuroPace Inc can sustain above-average returns on invested capital for at least 10 years, with the strongest contributor being growth durability at 13.7/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (13.7/20) and margin superiority (13/20). Rev growth 42%, 5yr history. GM 76% vs sector 43%, OM -20% vs sector 1%. These pillars form the core of NeuroPace Inc's competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include financial resilience (2.5/20) and economic value creation (4.6/20). Interest coverage -1.6x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect NeuroPace Inc's moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 76% providing a solid profitability foundation, robust top-line growth of 42% expanding the revenue base. The margin cascade from 76% gross to -20% operating to -26.2% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 48th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 76%, operating margins of -20%, net margins of -26.2%. Return metrics include ROE of -130.6% and ROA of -22.6%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 33.7 percentage points above the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -130.6% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 479%, which may limit financial flexibility, revenue growth of 42%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting NeuroPace Inc at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
NeuroPace (NPCE) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., February 20, 2026--NeuroPace, Inc. (Nasdaq: NPCE), a medical device company focused on transforming the lives of people living with epilepsy, today announced it will report financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. The company’s management will webcast a corresponding conference call beginning at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time).
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., January 13, 2026--NeuroPace, Inc. (Nasdaq: NPCE), a medical device company focused on transforming the lives of people living with epilepsy, today reported preliminary unaudited results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 with total revenue of approximately $26.6 million, an increase of 24% over the fourth quarter of 2024. RNS revenue is expected to be approximately $22.4 million, representing growth of 26% over the fourth quarter of 2024. Cash equivalents and s
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., December 31, 2025--NeuroPace, Inc. (Nasdaq: NPCE), a medical device company focused on transforming the lives of people living with epilepsy, today announced that its management team will present at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference at 3:00pm PT on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, in San Francisco, CA. Management will also host investor meetings during the conference.