Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Do?
Our mission is to create a smarter, more resilient insurance platform powered by AI, data science, and technology, enabling insurers to deploy capacity with confidence and delivering instant access to coverage for policyholders and agents. Neptune is a leading, high-growth, highly profitable, data-driven managing general agent that is revolutionizing the way homeowners and businesses protect against the growing risks of flooding. We offer a range of easy-to-purchase residential and commercial insurance products — including primary flood insurance, excess flood insurance, and parametric earthquake insurance — distributed through a nationwide network of agencies. Neptune does not take any balance sheet insurance risk or have claims handling responsibility relating to the policies we sell. We underwrite and administer the issuance of insurance policies on behalf of a diverse panel of insurance and reinsurance companies, whom we refer to as capacity providers, that manage both this risk and the associated claims handling. From day one, we have built our business on a foundation of advanced data science and AI, leveraging proprietary ML algorithms, which has led to superior underwriting results, outsized growth, recurring revenue, and robust margins, including delivering a lifetime written loss ratio of just 24.7% to our capacity providers from our inception through June 30, 2025. In addition, for the year ended December 31, 2024, we achieved 40.6% organic revenue growth, 29.0% net income margin, and 60.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin and for the six months ended June 30, 2025, we achieved 32.3% organic revenue growth, 30.2% net income margin and 59.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Neptune was founded to solve the inefficiencies and poor product-market fit we saw in the traditional flood insurance market, which we believe represents a significant and underpenetrated opportunity. According to the American Housing Survey and the Energy Information Administration, there are over 100 million residential and commercial buildings in the U.S., many of which face flood risk, yet only a small fraction are covered by flood insurance. Today, the largest provider of flood insurance in the United States — and the holder of the majority market share — is the National Flood Insurance Program, a U.S. government-run entity and our main competitor. We believe purchasing insurance from the NFIP is relatively burdensome and time-consuming for policyholders and agents, and that its limited product offerings often fail to meet policyholder needs. In addition, the NFIP has historically received substantial government subsidies that have enabled it to limit premiums to rates that have been challenging for private flood insurance providers to compete with, a dynamic that is shifting with the NFIP’s recent introduction of its “Risk Rating 2.0” pricing model, discussed in more detail below. Private market participation has also historically been constrained by regulatory barriers, a lack of innovation expertise, and limited access to sufficient claims and performance data to optimize pricing and underwriting decisions. We believe that Neptune’s position as the first scaled private flood platform, including the years of claims and performance data that we have generated through our operations, provides a key early-mover advantage in addressing all of these challenges and disrupting the industry. With Neptune’s use of AI, our technology platform, and our data-driven approach, we believe we have delivered the promise of disrupting the insurance industry. Not only have our innovation efforts delivered vastly improved policyholder and agent experiences through the ease-of-use of our proprietary underwriting (Triton) and policy management (Poseidon) platforms, we have also demonstrated superior risk selection and underwriting through our top-tier financial performance and sustained growth. Utilizing AI and ML algorithms with no human underwriters, Neptune has redefined how flood insurance can be underwritten, creating value for policyholders and agents while producing consistent, long-term positive returns for our insurance and reinsurance partners. Further, as the NFIP moves away from its historical subsidized pricing model, we believe our Triton platform, backed by years of proprietary data derived from our business operations, positions us to optimize pricing determinations and compete for existing NFIP policyholders in a way that would be challenging for a new entrant to replicate until it is able to generate, or otherwise gain access to, comparable claims and performance data. Technology and data science are the foundation of Neptune’s business model, driving our three core pillars: • Our Underwriting Engine: Our entirely digital underwriting engine, Triton, uses advanced technology, including proprietary AI and ML models, without any human underwriters, to assess risk with speed and precision. Powered by predictive analytics and loss estimation, Triton has enabled Neptune’s policies to consistently outperform the NFIP in written loss ratio despite 21 landfall hurricanes — including four of the ten largest flood events in U.S. history — taking place since Neptune’s founding. • Our Risk Relationships: Our risk relationships are built on performance and trust, and we currently have 33 capacity providers, including 26 reinsurance providers, backing 7 distinct insurance programs to help minimize concentration risk while delivering consistent returns. In turn, the accuracy of our risk assessment and our precision pricing have delivered hundreds of millions of dollars of underwriting profit for our capacity providers since inception, leading to high rates of capacity renewals and increases in committed capacity. • Our Distribution: Our distribution strategy is primarily focused on deep partnerships across agencies with tens of thousands of agents who benefit from the ease-of-use of our automated underwriting platform, seamless API integrations, instantaneous bindable quotes and proprietary Agent Portal. We believe this is a meaningful departure from industry norms and makes our approach to distribution attractive to the agents we work with. The three pillars above interlock, creating a powerful and reinforcing loop. Unlike traditional insurance underwriting that historically relied on humans, static models, and infrequent adjustments, we leverage an iterative approach that allows us to consistently and rapidly integrate new data and models into our underwriting engine, thereby refining our processes and adapting to evolving market and environmental conditions. As our models constantly evolve and improve, they are able to deliver superior results that minimize losses for our capacity providers, which in turn grant us additional underwriting capacity. With more capacity available, we can offer coverages our policyholders want, enhancing the ability for our agency partners to easily sell policies while expanding our distribution and reach. The resulting increase in quoted and bound policies provides us with access to more data, enhancing the predictive capabilities of our underlying models. We operate as an MGA, with a highly attractive, recurring, fee-based revenue model derived from two primary sources: commissions paid by capacity providers, and fees paid by policyholders. Commissions are calculated as a negotiated percentage of premium for each policy. As of June 30, 2025, our average commission rates have increased by more than 4% since 2018, as capacity providers continue to recognize our superior underwriting performance. Given our high retention rates to date, we believe that we have a high degree of visibility into our future revenue streams. For example, for the six-month period ended June 30, 2025, our eligible policy and premium retention rates at renewal were 85.8% and 98.9%, respectively. As of December 31, 2018, the end of our first full year of operations, we had $4.4 million of premium in force with one insurance program. As of December 31, 2024, we have achieved remarkable growth. Since 2018, our premium in force has increased at a CAGR of 99% to $277.6 million as of December 31, 2024. For the year ended December 31, 2024, we generated $119.3 million in revenue, $34.6 million in net income, and $72.1 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This translates to $2.3 million in revenue per employee and $1.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA per employee, a 29.0% net income margin and a 60.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin. In addition, for the six months ended June 30, 2025, we generated $71.4 million in revenue, $21.6 million in net income, and $42.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA, which translates to a 30.2% net income margin and a 59.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. For the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, we generated $136.7 million in revenue, $45.3 million in net income, and $82.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA, which translates to $2.5 million in revenue per employee and $1.5 million in Adjusted EBITDA per employee, a 33.1% net income margin and a 60.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Our Adjusted EBITDA margin has consistently exceeded 50% over the past four years, thanks to the operational leverage inherent in our technology-first business model. Notably, our organic revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $34.4 million, or 40.6%, year-over-year, primarily due to the increased number of renewals in our portfolio and an active 2024 hurricane season. For the year ended December 31, 2024, we also generated net cash provided by operating activities of $49.9 million. As of June 30, 2025, we had negative book value per share due to our history of paying dividends to our stockholders, which have been financed through a combination of debt and redeemable, convertible preferred stock financings and cash flows generated from our business operations. Since inception, we have made dividend payments to our stockholders totaling approximately $605 million. Our principal executive offices are located in St. Petersburg, Florida. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Insurance industry. The company is led by CEO Trevor Burgess and employs approximately 60 people, headquartered in ST. PETERSBURG, Florida. With a market capitalization of $3.4B, NP is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Stock Rating — Reduce (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 31.8/100 and 2 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NP ranks #2,313 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. ranks #633 of 891 stocks, placing it in the lower half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NP Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) currently trades at $24.73. The stock lost $0.15 (0.6%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NP is $33.23, which means the stock is currently trading -25.6% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $14.78, putting the stock 67.3% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 184K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is NP Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) carries a value factor score of 47/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 303.17x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a premium of 1937%. The price-to-sales ratio is 5.49x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, NP trades at 12.35x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Overall, NP's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) earns a quality factor score of 18/100, signaling below-average profitability metrics relative to the broader market. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 229.2% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
The operating margin is 44.5% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 23.4%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Profitability is below benchmark levels, which may reflect industry headwinds, elevated reinvestment, or structural challenges.
NP Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Balance sheet data for NP is evaluated through our stability factor. The current ratio is 0.99x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $248M.
NP has a beta of 0.99, meaning it is roughly in line with the broader market in terms of price volatility. The stability factor score for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. is 35/100, suggesting elevated price swings that may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $160M and earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.26. Net income for the quarter was $37M. Operating income came in at $71M.
In FY 2025, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $160M and earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.26. Net income for the quarter was $37M. Operating income came in at $71M.
In Q3 2025, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $44M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06. Net income for the quarter was $12M. Operating income came in at $21M.
In FY 2021, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $1.03B and earnings per share (EPS) of $-1.49. Net income for the quarter was $-25M. Gross margin was 15.9%. Operating income came in at $-12M.
Over the past 4 quarters, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. has experienced revenue contraction from $1.03B to $160M. Investors analyzing NP stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NP Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) does not currently pay a dividend. This is common among smaller companies in the Insurance industry that prefer to reinvest cash flows into business expansion rather than returning capital to shareholders. Income-focused investors looking for Financials dividend stocks may want to explore other Financials stocks or use the stock screener to filter by dividend yield.
NP Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) has a momentum factor score of 30/100, signaling weak relative price performance. Stocks with low momentum scores have historically tended to continue underperforming in the near term. The investment factor score is 25/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 61/100 reflects moderate short selling activity.
NP vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Within the Financials sector, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) ranks #633 out of 891 stocks based on the Blank Capital composite score. This places NP in the lower half of all Financials stocks in our coverage universe. Key competitors and sector peers include WHITE MOUNTAINS INSURANCE GROUP LTD (WTM) with a score of 62.9/100, OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC (OPY) with a score of 62.6/100, Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) with a score of 61.6/100, International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. (IGIC) with a score of 61.3/100, and PARKE BANCORP, INC. (PKBK) with a score of 60.4/100.
Comparing NP against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NP vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NP Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NP? — Investment Thesis Summary
The quantitative profile for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. suggests caution. The quality score of 18/100 flags below-average profitability. Momentum is weak at 30/100, a headwind for near-term performance. High volatility (stability score 35/100) increases portfolio risk.
In summary, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) earns a Reduce rating with a composite score of 31.8/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NP stock.
Related Resources for NP Investors
Explore more research and tools: NP vs S&P 500 comparison, top Financials stocks, stock screener, our methodology, quality factor explained, value factor explained, momentum factor explained. Compare NP head-to-head with peers: NP vs WTM, NP vs OPY, NP vs ACT.