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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 60.6GRADE B
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
11.4%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
GROWTH
0.89%
Trailing Yield
$0.89
Per $100 Invested
Modest dividend — capital prioritized for reinvestment.
Est. Payout Ratio
21%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 55.3/100, ranked #172 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 61/100, Value 62/100, Momentum 61/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does NICOLET BANKSHARES INC Do?
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Nicolet National Bank that provides banking products and services for businesses and individuals. The company accepts checking, savings, and money market accounts; various certificates of deposit; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial loans, including commercial, industrial, and business loans and lines of credit; commercial real estate loans; agricultural (AG) production and AG real estate loans; commercial real estate investment real estate loans; construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first lien and junior lien mortgages, home equity loans, lines of credit, and residential construction loans; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides cash management, international banking, personal brokerage, safe deposit boxes, and trust and fiduciary services, as well as wealth management and retirement plan services. Further, it offers mortgage refinancing; online services, such as commercial, retail, and trust online banking; automated bill payment, mobile banking deposits and account access, and remote deposit capture services; and other services consisting of wire transfers, debit cards, credit cards, pre-paid gift cards, direct deposits, and official bank checks, as well as facilitates crop insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 branches throughout Wisconsin and Michigan. The company was formerly known as Green Bay Financial Corporation and changed its name to Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. in March 2002. Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin. NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Banking industry. The company is led by CEO Michael E. Daniels and employs approximately 860 people, headquartered in GREEN BAY, Wisconsin. With a market capitalization of $3.2B, NIC is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.3/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NIC ranks #172 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC ranks #64 of 891 stocks, placing it in the top 10% of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NIC Stock Price and 52-Week Range
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) currently trades at $156.64. The stock lost $1.88 (1.2%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NIC is $163.11, which means the stock is currently trading -4.0% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $97.90, putting the stock 60.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 114K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is NIC Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) carries a value factor score of 62/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 23.21x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a premium of 56%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 2.64x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 7.51x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, NIC trades at 18.97x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Overall, NIC's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) earns a quality factor score of 61/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 11.4%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.6% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 38.9% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 32.5%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 10.5% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
NIC Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. The low leverage indicates a conservative balance sheet with significant financial flexibility. The current ratio is 1.16x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $135M. Cash and equivalents stand at $94M.
NIC has a beta of 0.75, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for NICOLET BANKSHARES INC is 78/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC reported revenue of $441M and earnings per share (EPS) of $10.06. Net income for the quarter was $143M. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $159M.
In FY 2025, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC reported revenue of $471M and earnings per share (EPS) of $10.06. Net income for the quarter was $151M. Revenue grew 7.4% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $187M.
In Q3 2025, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC reported revenue of $120M and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.81. Net income for the quarter was $42M. Revenue grew 32.6% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $52M.
In Q2 2025, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC reported revenue of $118M and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.40. Net income for the quarter was $36M. Revenue grew 8.0% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $45M.
Over the past 8 quarters, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $109M to $441M. Investors analyzing NIC stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NIC Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.9%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in NIC stock would generate approximately $$89.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning NIC yields less than the typical sector peer. With a net margin of 32.5%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
NIC Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) has a momentum factor score of 61/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 29/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 20/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
NIC vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing NIC against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NIC vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how NICOLET BANKSHARES INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NIC Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NIC? — Investment Thesis Summary
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 61/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 62/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Price momentum is positive at 61/100, suggesting the trend favors buyers. Low volatility (stability score 78/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 55.3/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NIC stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC (NIC) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) receives a Hold rating, driven by a balanced assessment of its financial performance and valuation. While the bank demonstrates strong profitability metrics and operates with a conservative balance sheet, its growth prospects, as indicated by the 'Investment' score, are less compelling, and the current valuation appears to reflect its strengths adequately. The primary takeaway is that NIC is a well-managed regional bank with solid financials, but its limited growth outlook and fair valuation suggest limited upside potential at the current price.
The bank's superior profitability, as evidenced by its high ROE and net margin compared to the sector, supports a premium valuation. However, the relatively low 'Investment' score, reflecting potentially constrained capital allocation or growth initiatives, tempers enthusiasm. Investors should closely monitor NIC's ability to deploy capital effectively and generate sustainable growth to justify a more bullish outlook. The Hold rating reflects a neutral stance, acknowledging the bank's strengths while remaining cautious about its growth trajectory and valuation.
Business Strategy & Overview
Nicolet Bankshares operates as a community bank, primarily serving businesses and individuals in Wisconsin and Michigan. Its core business revolves around traditional banking activities: accepting deposits (checking, savings, money market accounts, CDs, IRAs) and extending loans (commercial, real estate, agricultural, residential, and consumer). The bank generates revenue primarily from the net interest margin, the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Fee income, derived from services like cash management, wealth management, and brokerage, constitutes a secondary revenue stream.
Nicolet's strategic positioning emphasizes relationship banking and local market expertise. By focusing on smaller businesses and individual customers within its geographic footprint, the bank aims to build long-term relationships and provide personalized service. This strategy differentiates it from larger national banks that may lack the same level of local market knowledge and customer intimacy. The bank's 52 branches across Wisconsin and Michigan serve as physical touchpoints for customer interaction and deposit gathering.
The company also offers a suite of digital banking services, including online and mobile banking, remote deposit capture, and automated bill payment. These digital offerings are crucial for maintaining competitiveness and catering to the evolving preferences of tech-savvy customers. While Nicolet's digital capabilities are essential, its core strength lies in its ability to combine these technologies with personalized service and local market expertise.
Nicolet's growth strategy appears to be a combination of organic expansion within its existing markets and strategic acquisitions of other community banks. This approach allows the bank to expand its geographic footprint, increase its deposit base, and diversify its loan portfolio. The bank's history of acquisitions suggests a disciplined approach to M&A, focusing on targets that align with its culture and strategic objectives. However, the 'Investment' score of 29/100 suggests that the market may perceive limitations in the bank's ability to deploy capital effectively or generate significant growth from its investments.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
10.5%
Sector: 9.4%
+12% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Nicolet Bankshares likely possesses a narrow economic moat, primarily derived from switching costs and local market knowledge. Switching costs in banking, while not insurmountable, can be significant for businesses that have established banking relationships. These relationships often involve integrated services like cash management, payroll processing, and lending, making it inconvenient and costly to switch to a new bank. For individual customers, direct deposit arrangements and automatic payments can also create inertia.
The bank's local market knowledge provides another source of competitive advantage. By focusing on specific communities within Wisconsin and Michigan, Nicolet can develop a deep understanding of the local economy, businesses, and customer needs. This local expertise allows the bank to make more informed lending decisions and provide more tailored financial services. This advantage is difficult for larger, national banks to replicate without establishing a significant local presence.
However, the moat is narrow due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the banking industry. New banks can be chartered, and existing banks can expand into Nicolet's markets. Furthermore, the increasing prevalence of online banking and fintech companies is eroding the importance of physical branches and local presence. These factors limit Nicolet's ability to command premium pricing or generate consistently above-average returns.
The bank's ability to maintain its narrow moat depends on its continued focus on relationship banking, local market expertise, and efficient operations. Investing in technology to enhance its digital offerings and improve customer service is also crucial. While Nicolet's moat is not as wide as that of some larger, more diversified financial institutions, it provides a degree of protection against competition and supports its long-term profitability.
Financial Health & Profitability
Nicolet Bankshares exhibits strong financial health, characterized by robust profitability, a conservative balance sheet, and consistent cash flow generation. The company's ROE of 11.4% significantly exceeds the sector average of 8.5%, indicating superior profitability. Similarly, its net margin of 32.5% is substantially higher than the sector average of 17.8%, reflecting efficient operations and effective cost management.
Revenue growth has been solid, with a 10.5% increase compared to the sector average of 9.3%. The quarterly financial history reveals a consistent upward trend in revenue and net income over the past few years, with FY2025 showing significant improvements compared to FY2023. This growth suggests that Nicolet is effectively expanding its business and capturing market share.
The company's balance sheet is conservatively managed, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.00, significantly lower than the sector average of 115.00. This low leverage provides Nicolet with financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities, weather economic downturns, and return capital to shareholders. The current ratio of 1.16 indicates sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations.
Free cash flow generation, while relatively low at $2.71 million, is not a primary concern for banks, as their business model relies on managing interest rate spreads and generating fee income. The bank's ability to consistently generate net income and maintain a strong capital base is more critical. Overall, Nicolet's financial health is a significant strength, supporting its Hold rating and providing a solid foundation for future growth.
Valuation Assessment
Nicolet Bankshares' valuation appears to be fair, reflecting its strong financial performance and growth prospects. The company's P/E ratio of 13.9x is slightly below the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be modestly undervalued relative to its peers. However, the EV/EBITDA ratio of 4.2x is higher than the sector average of 3.5x, indicating that the market may be assigning a premium to Nicolet's earnings potential.
Given the company's superior profitability, as evidenced by its high ROE and net margin, a slight premium to the sector average may be justified. However, the relatively low 'Investment' score of 29/100 suggests that the market may be skeptical about Nicolet's ability to generate significant growth in the future. This skepticism could be weighing on the stock's valuation.
A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which is not possible with the provided data, would provide a more comprehensive assessment of the stock's intrinsic value. However, based on the available multiples and financial metrics, it appears that Nicolet is fairly valued at its current price. The Hold rating reflects this neutral valuation assessment.
Investors should closely monitor Nicolet's ability to deploy capital effectively and generate sustainable growth to justify a higher valuation. If the company can demonstrate a clear path to future growth, the stock could potentially trade at a higher multiple. However, in the absence of significant growth catalysts, the current valuation appears to be appropriate.
Risk & Uncertainty
Nicolet Bankshares faces several risks and uncertainties that could impact its financial performance and valuation. One significant risk is interest rate sensitivity. As a traditional bank, Nicolet's profitability is heavily influenced by the net interest margin, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Changes in interest rates can compress the net interest margin and reduce profitability. A rising interest rate environment could increase funding costs faster than loan yields, negatively impacting earnings.
Another risk is credit risk. Nicolet's loan portfolio is exposed to the risk of borrowers defaulting on their loans. Economic downturns or industry-specific challenges could increase loan losses and reduce profitability. The bank's concentration in Wisconsin and Michigan also exposes it to regional economic risks. A downturn in the local economy could negatively impact loan demand and increase credit losses.
Competition from larger banks and fintech companies poses another challenge. Larger banks have greater resources and can offer a wider range of products and services. Fintech companies are disrupting the traditional banking industry with innovative technologies and alternative financial solutions. Nicolet must continue to invest in technology and innovation to remain competitive.
Regulatory risk is also a factor. Banks are subject to extensive regulation, and changes in regulations could increase compliance costs and restrict their business activities. Increased capital requirements or stricter lending standards could negatively impact Nicolet's profitability and growth.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWNicolet's superior profitability, as evidenced by its high ROE and net margin compared to the sector, warrants a premium valuation and continued outperformance.
BULL VIEWThe bank's conservative balance sheet and low debt-to-equity ratio provide financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
BULL VIEWNicolet's focus on relationship banking and local market expertise creates a sustainable competitive advantage and fosters long-term customer loyalty.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWNicolet's relatively low 'Investment' score suggests limited growth prospects and potential challenges in deploying capital effectively.
BEAR VIEWThe bank's concentration in Wisconsin and Michigan exposes it to regional economic risks and limits its diversification.
BEAR VIEWIncreasing competition from larger banks and fintech companies could erode Nicolet's market share and pressure its profitability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score NIC and 4,400+ other equities.
NICOLET BANKSHARES INC exhibits a 347% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.6%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
38.9%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
32.5%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta-64%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $89 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
