NI

We rate NISOURCE INC. (NI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.9/100 at a current price of $46.42. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (86th percentile) and momentum (51th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (23th percentile) and value (25th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (40/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; valuation compression risk if growth disappoints. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

NISOURCE INC. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.9/100 places it at rank #2508 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $20.4B market capitalization, NISOURCE INC. operates at meaningful scale within the Transportation, Communications, Electric, Gas, And Sanitary Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 17%, though momentum at the 51th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 53% (-1.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 25% (+7.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 23%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $46.42, NISOURCE INC. is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 25/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 26.4x (a 56% premium to the sector median of 16.9x), EV/EBITDA of 11.8x (at a premium), P/B of 1.9x, P/S of 3.8x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to NISOURCE INC.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (208% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (23th percentile), low beta of 0.38 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (208% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (23th percentile); low beta of 0.38 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 86th percentile and quality factor at the 23th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 53% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (86th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 2.55% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate NISOURCE INC.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (208% D/E). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — NISOURCE INC. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, NISOURCE INC. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.9/100 (rank #2508 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (40/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 42/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on NISOURCE INC. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.