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Relative valuation derived from Utilities sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 50GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
7.1%
Sector: 9.9%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
2.55%
Trailing Yield
$2.55
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
71%MID
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, NISOURCE INC. (NI) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.6/100, ranked #145 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 50/100, Value 67/100, Momentum 54/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
NISOURCE INC. (NI) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does NISOURCE INC. Do?
NiSource Inc., an energy holding company, operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility company in the United States. It operates through two segments, Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. The company distributes natural gas to approximately 853,000 customers in northern Indiana, as well as approximately 2.4 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. It operates approximately 54,600 miles of distribution main pipelines, as well as associated individual customer service lines; and 1,000 miles of transmission main pipelines. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 483,000 customers in 20 counties in the northern part of Indiana, as well as engages in wholesale electric and transmission transactions. It owns and operates coal-fired electric generating stations with a capacity of 722 megawatts (MW) in Wheatfield and 455 MW in Michigan City; combined cycle gas turbine with a capacity of 563 MW in West Terre Haute; natural gas generating units with a capacity of 155 MW in Wheatfield; hydro generating plants with a capacity of 9 MW in Carroll County and 7 MW in White County; and wind generating units with a capacity of 102 MW and 302 MW in White County, Indiana. The company was formerly known as NIPSCO Industries, Inc. and changed its name to NiSource Inc. in April 1999. NiSource Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana. NISOURCE INC. (NI) is classified as a large-cap stock in the Utilities sector. The company is led by CEO Lloyd M. Yates and employs approximately 7,120 people, headquartered in MERRILLVILLE, Indiana. With a market capitalization of $22.4B, NI is one of the prominent companies in the Utilities sector.
NISOURCE INC. (NI) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, NISOURCE INC. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.6/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NI ranks #145 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Utilities sector, NISOURCE INC. ranks #15 of 112 stocks, placing it in the top quartile of its Utilities peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NI Stock Price and 52-Week Range
NISOURCE INC. (NI) currently trades at $48.05. The stock lost $0.42 (0.9%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NI is $47.96, which means the stock is currently trading 0.2% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $35.64, putting the stock 34.8% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 3.1M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is NI Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
NISOURCE INC. (NI) carries a value factor score of 67/100 in the Blank Capital model, indicating fair valuation relative to historical norms. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 27.69x, compared to the Utilities sector average of 23.47x — a premium of 18%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.97x, versus the sector average of 1.98x. The price-to-sales ratio is 4.01x, compared to 0.82x for the average Utilities stock. On an enterprise value basis, NI trades at 12.41x EV/EBITDA, versus 4.75x for the sector.
Overall, NI's valuation appears roughly in line with sector benchmarks, suggesting the market is pricing the stock fairly given its current fundamentals and growth trajectory. Neither deep value nor significantly overpriced, the stock occupies a middle ground on valuation.
NISOURCE INC. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
NISOURCE INC. (NI) earns a quality factor score of 50/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.1%, compared to the Utilities sector average of 9.9%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 2.3% versus the sector average of 3.1%.
On a margin basis, NISOURCE INC. reports gross margins of 53.3%, compared to 53.1% for the sector. The operating margin is 25.0% (sector: 21.5%). Net profit margin stands at 12.5%, versus 12.8% for the average Utilities stock. Revenue growth is running at 17.4% on a trailing basis, compared to 20.1% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
NI Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
NISOURCE INC. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 208.0%, compared to the Utilities sector average of 164.5%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 0.69x, which may signal near-term liquidity tightness. Total debt on the balance sheet is $15.76B. Cash and equivalents stand at $95M.
NI has a beta of 0.36, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for NISOURCE INC. is 93/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
NISOURCE INC. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, NISOURCE INC. reported revenue of $5.75B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.96. Net income for the quarter was $831M. Gross margin was 53.3%. Operating income came in at $1.54B.
In FY 2025, NISOURCE INC. reported revenue of $6.52B and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.96. Net income for the quarter was $1.01B. Revenue grew 23.5% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $1.84B.
In Q3 2025, NISOURCE INC. reported revenue of $1.27B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.20. Net income for the quarter was $107M. Gross margin was 53.3%. Revenue grew 18.3% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $298M.
In Q2 2025, NISOURCE INC. reported revenue of $1.25B and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22. Net income for the quarter was $101M. Revenue grew 14.9% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $263M.
Over the past 8 quarters, NISOURCE INC. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $1.08B to $5.75B. Investors analyzing NI stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NI Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
NISOURCE INC. (NI) currently pays a dividend yield of 2.5%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in NI stock would generate approximately $$255.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Utilities sector average dividend yield of 2.8%, meaning NI yields less than the typical sector peer. The net margin of 12.5% provides reasonable coverage for the dividend, though investors should monitor payout sustainability.
NI Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
NISOURCE INC. (NI) has a momentum factor score of 54/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 27/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 21/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
NI vs Competitors — Utilities Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing NI against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NI vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how NISOURCE INC. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NI Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for NISOURCE INC. (NI) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NI? — Investment Thesis Summary
NISOURCE INC. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 67/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 93/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, NISOURCE INC. (NI) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.6/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NI stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
NISOURCE INC. (NI) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on NiSource (NI), driven by a balanced assessment of its regulated utility business, predictable cash flows, and commitment to infrastructure modernization against a backdrop of significant debt and ongoing capital expenditure requirements. While NiSource benefits from a stable operating environment and a constructive regulatory framework, its high leverage and negative free cash flow raise concerns about its financial flexibility and ability to fund future growth initiatives without further diluting shareholders or increasing debt.
The company's strategic focus on transitioning to cleaner energy sources and upgrading its infrastructure is commendable, but the associated costs are substantial and will likely continue to weigh on its financial performance in the near term. The current valuation appears fair, reflecting the inherent stability of the utility sector but also acknowledging the challenges posed by its financial profile. We believe investors should remain on the sidelines until NiSource demonstrates a clear path to sustainable free cash flow generation and deleveraging.
Business Strategy & Overview
NiSource operates as a regulated utility, deriving revenue from the distribution of natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across several states. The company's business strategy centers on providing safe, reliable, and affordable energy services while modernizing its infrastructure and transitioning to cleaner energy sources. This involves significant investments in upgrading its natural gas pipeline network, replacing aging infrastructure, and expanding its renewable energy portfolio.
The company's strategic positioning is heavily influenced by regulatory frameworks in the states where it operates. NiSource works closely with regulatory bodies to secure rate adjustments that allow it to recover its investments and earn a reasonable return on equity. This regulatory oversight provides a degree of stability and predictability to its earnings, but also subjects the company to regulatory risks, such as unfavorable rate decisions or changes in environmental regulations.
NiSource's transition to cleaner energy sources is a key component of its long-term strategy. The company is investing in renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar farms, and is retiring its coal-fired power plants. This transition is driven by environmental concerns, regulatory mandates, and customer demand for cleaner energy. However, it also requires significant capital investments and poses challenges in terms of maintaining grid reliability and affordability.
The company's capital allocation strategy prioritizes investments in infrastructure modernization and renewable energy projects. NiSource funds these investments through a combination of debt, equity, and internally generated cash flow. However, its negative free cash flow indicates a reliance on external financing, which increases its financial risk. The company's ability to execute its strategic plan depends on its ability to access capital markets on favorable terms and to secure regulatory approvals for its investments.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
17.4%
Sector: 20.1%
-13% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
NiSource possesses a Narrow economic moat, primarily derived from its regulated utility operations and the associated barriers to entry. The utility industry is characterized by high capital costs, extensive regulatory oversight, and the need for established infrastructure, making it difficult for new entrants to compete. NiSource's existing infrastructure network and established customer base provide it with a significant advantage over potential competitors.
The regulatory environment also contributes to NiSource's moat. As a regulated utility, the company is granted a monopoly in its service territories, subject to regulatory oversight. This regulatory framework provides a degree of protection from competition and allows NiSource to earn a reasonable return on its investments. However, it also subjects the company to regulatory risks, such as unfavorable rate decisions or changes in environmental regulations.
While NiSource benefits from these barriers to entry, its moat is not particularly wide. The company's profitability and returns on equity are constrained by regulatory oversight, and its ability to generate excess returns is limited. Furthermore, the increasing focus on renewable energy and the potential for distributed generation technologies, such as solar panels and battery storage, could erode NiSource's competitive advantage over time.
The company's reliance on debt financing also weakens its moat. High leverage increases its financial risk and reduces its flexibility to invest in growth opportunities. Furthermore, the company's negative free cash flow indicates that it is not generating enough cash to fund its operations and investments, which could further constrain its ability to compete effectively.
In summary, NiSource's narrow moat is primarily based on its regulated utility operations and the associated barriers to entry. However, its profitability is constrained by regulatory oversight, and its financial profile weakens its competitive position. The increasing focus on renewable energy and the potential for distributed generation technologies could also erode its moat over time.
Financial Health & Profitability
NiSource's financial health presents a mixed picture. While the company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, its profitability and cash flow generation are areas of concern. The company's revenue has grown from $5.28 billion in FY2024 to $6.52 billion in FY2025, representing a 17.4% increase. This growth is primarily driven by rate increases and increased demand for energy services.
However, NiSource's net income has not kept pace with revenue growth. The company's net income increased from $844.7 million in FY2024 to $1.01 billion in FY2025. The company's ROE of 7.1% is below the sector average of 10.0%, indicating that it is not generating as much profit from its equity as its peers. The company's net margin of 12.5% is slightly below the sector average of 12.8%.
A significant concern is NiSource's negative free cash flow. The company reported free cash flow of -$2.87 billion in the most recent quarter. This indicates that the company is spending more cash than it is generating, which is unsustainable in the long term. The negative free cash flow is primarily due to the company's significant capital expenditures on infrastructure modernization and renewable energy projects.
NiSource's balance sheet is also highly leveraged. The company's total debt is $15.76 billion, and its debt-to-equity ratio is 208.00, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 165.00. This high leverage increases the company's financial risk and reduces its flexibility to invest in growth opportunities. The company's current ratio of 0.69 indicates that it may have difficulty meeting its short-term obligations.
The quarterly financial history reveals a consistent pattern of revenue growth and profitability, but also highlights the challenges of managing capital expenditures and maintaining a healthy balance sheet. The company's operating margin has fluctuated over the past few years, reflecting the impact of various factors, such as weather conditions, regulatory changes, and cost management initiatives.
Valuation Assessment
NiSource's valuation appears to be fair, considering its regulated utility business model and its financial profile. The company's P/E ratio of 23.0x is slightly above the sector average of 22.7x, suggesting that it is trading at a slight premium to its peers. However, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.9x is significantly below the sector average of 4.8x, indicating that it may be undervalued on an enterprise value basis.
The company's negative free cash flow makes it difficult to assess its valuation using traditional free cash flow metrics. However, its dividend yield may provide some insight into its valuation. NiSource's dividend yield is comparable to its peers, suggesting that it is not significantly overvalued or undervalued based on its dividend payout.
The company's high debt levels and negative free cash flow raise concerns about its ability to sustain its current valuation. If the company is unable to improve its financial performance and generate positive free cash flow, its valuation could decline. Furthermore, changes in interest rates or regulatory policies could also impact its valuation.
Considering the company's financial profile and its growth prospects, we believe that its current valuation is fair. The company's regulated utility business provides a degree of stability and predictability to its earnings, but its high debt levels and negative free cash flow limit its upside potential. We believe that investors should remain on the sidelines until NiSource demonstrates a clear path to sustainable free cash flow generation and deleveraging.
Risk & Uncertainty
NiSource faces several specific risks that could impact its business and financial performance. Regulatory risk is a significant concern, as the company's earnings are heavily influenced by regulatory decisions regarding rate adjustments and environmental regulations. Unfavorable rate decisions or changes in environmental regulations could negatively impact its profitability and growth prospects.
Environmental risk is also a key consideration. The company's transition to cleaner energy sources requires significant capital investments and poses challenges in terms of maintaining grid reliability and affordability. Delays in the development of renewable energy projects or unexpected costs associated with retiring coal-fired power plants could negatively impact its financial performance.
Financial risk is another major concern. The company's high debt levels and negative free cash flow increase its vulnerability to changes in interest rates and economic conditions. If the company is unable to access capital markets on favorable terms, it may have difficulty funding its operations and investments. Furthermore, a decline in energy demand or an increase in operating costs could negatively impact its profitability and cash flow generation.
Operational risk is also a factor. The company's infrastructure network is subject to damage from natural disasters, such as storms and floods. A major infrastructure failure could disrupt its operations and result in significant costs. Furthermore, the company faces risks associated with cybersecurity and data privacy.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWNiSource's regulated utility business provides stable and predictable cash flows, making it a defensive investment in uncertain economic times.
BULL VIEWThe company's commitment to infrastructure modernization and renewable energy projects will drive long-term growth and enhance its environmental profile.
BULL VIEWConstructive regulatory relationships will allow NiSource to recover its investments and earn a reasonable return on equity.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWNiSource's high debt levels and negative free cash flow raise concerns about its financial flexibility and ability to fund future growth initiatives.
BEAR VIEWUnfavorable regulatory decisions or changes in environmental regulations could negatively impact its profitability and growth prospects.
BEAR VIEWThe increasing focus on renewable energy and the potential for distributed generation technologies could erode NiSource's competitive advantage over time.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score NI and 4,400+ other equities.
NISOURCE INC. exhibits a 141% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
2.3%
Sector: 3.1%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
53.3%
Sector: 53.1%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
25.0%
Sector: 21.5%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
12.5%
Sector: 12.8%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.83%
Yield Delta-10%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $255 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
