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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#3179
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Restaurants, Hotels, Motels
$30M
David J. Boennighausen
Noodles & Company was founded in 1995 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado. As of December 28, 2021, the company operated 448 restaurants in 29 states.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = NDLS ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 6.9% | 4.1% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | -3.4% | 1.1% | 33.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | -25.2% | -10.6% | 28.1% | -6.3% | -5.4% | -7.8% | 6.1% | 57.0x | $396M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.2% | 59.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $764M | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 32.0% | 6.6% | 51.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 178.0x | $934M | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 0.4% | -3.5% | 61.7% | 2.1% | -5.7% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 190.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$NDLS NOODLES & Co | 43 | 41 | 35 | 55 | - | 14.6x | 128.7% | -15.2% | 35.0% | -6.5% | -8.6% | -4.1% | 0.0% | - | $30M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 9.6% | 3.6% | 37.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.7x | - | REF |
NOODLES & Co (NDLS) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 42.6/100. It ranks #3179 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for NDLS.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 41 | 31 | +10ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 55 | 57 | -2NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 35 | 29 | +6ALPHA |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 39 | -8DRAG |
| STABILITY | 7 | 2 | +5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 24 | 12 | +12ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -4.8% vs WACC 3.8% (spread -8.6%)
GM 35% vs sector 37%, OM -6% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover 1.18x
Rev growth -4%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -2.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate NOODLES & Co (NDLS) as a Reduce with a composite score of 42.6/100 at a current price of $5.34. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
NOODLES & Co holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 42.6/100 places it at rank #3179 in our full universe.
No Moat
Very High
Poor
Fair Value
Returns on equity of 128.7% exceed cost of capital.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
NOODLES & Co represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
NOODLES & Co receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 42.6/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #3179 out of 7,333 stocks. NDLS's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
NDLS's quality score of 41/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 128.7% (sector avg: 9.6%), gross margins of 35.0% (sector avg: 37.3%), net margins of -8.6% (sector avg: 2.4%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 35/100, NDLS appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 14.64x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
NOODLES & Co's investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -4.1% vs. a sector average of 3.7% and a return on assets of -15.2% (sector: 3.6%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
NDLS demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 55/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -4.1% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.78 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
NOODLES & Co registers a low stability score of 7/100, indicating high volatility and potentially stressed financial conditions. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.78. Stocks at this level carry elevated capital loss risk and may be unsuitable for conservative portfolios without careful risk management.
NOODLES & Co's short interest score of 24/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include high market sensitivity (beta: 1.78), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $30M (micro-cap), NDLS carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
NOODLES & Co is a micro-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #3179 of 7,333 overall (57th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 128.7% exceeding the 9.6% sector median and operating margins of -6.5% below the 4.4% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While NDLS currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Stability (7) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 61% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 1242% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 6% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Noodles & Company has launched "Delicious Duos," a new line of perfectly portioned combo meals designed to offer variety, flavor, and value to guests. These duos pair a small entrée with a protein and a side, starting at $9.95, and are available all day. The company is also promoting a "Dress as a Duo Day" on August 16th, offering a Buy One, Get One 50% Off deal for customers who visit dressed as famous duos.
Noodles & Company will execute a 1-for-8 reverse stock split of its Class A common stock, effective February 18, 2026, to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid price requirement. The decision was overwhelmingly approved by stockholders and will not change the stock symbol "NDLS." Fractional shares will be rounded up, and proportional adjustments will be made to equity awards.
Noodles & Company plans to close an additional 30 to 35 restaurants in 2026 as part of a "portfolio optimization" strategy, following 42 closures last year. This announcement comes despite a preliminary Q4 2025 same-store sales increase of 6.6%, driven by strong performance in company-owned restaurants and new value menu initiatives like Delicious Duos. The company is under pressure from potential Nasdaq delisting and activist investors, leading to exploring options for shareholder value maximization, including a reverse stock split.
Noodles & Company is again facing a Nasdaq delisting threat due to its struggling stock price, despite recent menu transformations and sales growth. This marks the second time the company has faced such a challenge, highlighting ongoing difficulties in its market performance.
Noodles & Company has again received a delisting warning from Nasdaq because its share price has fallen below the required $1 minimum for 30 consecutive business days. The company previously faced a similar situation last year but saw its share price rebound. Options to regain compliance include the stock closing at $1 or higher for ten consecutive days, or potentially transferring its listing to The Nasdaq Capital Market.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081