IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Blank Capital Research ("BCR") is a technology platform, not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer. The algorithmically generated signals, scores, and rankings provided on this site ("God Mode" Signals) are for informational and research purposes only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or solicit an offer to buy any securities.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS: The "timing scores" and "regime signals" displayed are based on quantitative models. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity.
RISK OF LOSS: Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Data provided by third-party sources (Intrinio, Snowflake) is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
© 2026 Blank Capital Research. All rights reserved. System Version: Aegis V8 (God Mode).
Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2861
Positioning
Market Dominance
Services
Business Services
$436M
Thomas F. Lesinski
National CineMedia, Inc. operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = NCMI ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$YALA Yalla Group Ltd | 75 | 89 | 99 | 80 | - | - | 21.3% | 18.6% | 64.5% | 35.7% | 39.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $644M | VS | |
$GRVY GRAVITY Co., Ltd. | 75 | 82 | 96 | 71 | - | - | 15.4% | 12.6% | 38.7% | 17.1% | 17.0% | -39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $439M | VS | |
$ISSC INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS & SUPPORT INC | 73 | 81 | 88 | 94 | 25.0x | 14.1x | 28.1% | 16.8% | 48.1% | 23.8% | 18.5% | 78.6% | 0.0% | 37.0x | $220M | VS | |
$AER AerCap Holdings N.V. | 72 | 60 | 87 | 84 | - | - | 12.4% | 2.9% | 100.0% | 28.2% | 26.2% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 264.0x | $19.4B | VS | |
$HCSG HEALTHCARE SERVICES GROUP INC | 72 | 74 | 88 | 88 | 7.1x | 6.1x | 28.9% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$LQDT LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC | 72 | 90 | 88 | 68 | 24.9x | 14.3x | 14.6% | 7.8% | 43.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $857M | VS | |
$TRTNpA Triton International Ltd | 71 | 70 | 89 | 70 | - | 1.7x | 18.0% | 4.6% | 97.3% | 52.2% | 32.7% | -3.4% | 0.0% | 271.0x | $8.0B | VS | |
$EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 71 | 83 | 52 | 77 | - | - | 9.4% | 4.9% | 55.5% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 7.0x | $78.0B | VS | |
$NTES NetEase, Inc. | 71 | 88 | 93 | 68 | - | - | 22.1% | 15.6% | 62.5% | 28.1% | 28.7% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 9.0x | $56.6B | VS | |
$UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC | 70 | 86 | 86 | 72 | 43.2x | 16.0x | 21.4% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 0.0% | 27.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$NCMI National CineMedia, Inc. | 45 | 54 | 59 | 34 | 164.5x | 10.4x | -5.2% | -4.0% | 94.4% | -13.0% | -9.1% | 81.7% | 1.9% | 29.0x | $436M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 23.7x | 11.7x | 5.3% | 1.9% | 59.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.3x | - | REF |
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 44.7/100. It ranks #2861 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
Sign in to join the discussion.
YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Thomas F. Lesinski
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
350
54
31
67
Audit Verdict: Average governance indicators based on financial metrics.
No recent insider transactions available for NCMI
Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
Get full access to institutional-quality research tools with Blank Capital Pro.
Upgrade to ProStarting at $19.99/mo
Relative valuation derived from Services sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for NCMI.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 54 | 65 | -11DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 34 | 29 | +5NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 59 | 66 | -7DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 31 | 39 | -8DRAG |
| STABILITY | 67 | 72 | -5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 22 | 7 | +15ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROE proxy -5.2% (sector 5.3%)
GM 94% vs sector 60%, OM -13% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover N/A
Rev growth 82%, 11yr history
Interest coverage N/A
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
National CineMedia, Inc. receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 44.7/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2861 out of 7,333 stocks. NCMI's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
With a quality score of 54/100, NCMI shows adequate but unremarkable business quality. The company reports a return on equity of -5.2% (sector avg: 5.3%), gross margins of 94.4% (sector avg: 59.6%), net margins of -9.1% (sector avg: 2.3%). This suggests the company generates acceptable returns but may lack the competitive positioning or operational efficiency to stand out from peers.
NCMI's value score of 59/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 164.50x, an EV/EBITDA of 10.38x, a P/B ratio of 0.91x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
National CineMedia, Inc.'s investment score of 31/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 81.7% vs. a sector average of 7.8% and a return on assets of -4.0% (sector: 1.9%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
NCMI is currently showing below-average momentum at 34/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 81.7% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.78 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
NCMI shows good financial stability with a score of 67/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.78 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.00x (sector avg: 0.3x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
National CineMedia, Inc.'s short interest score of 22/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 29.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $436M (small-cap), NCMI carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
NCMI offers a modest dividend yield of 1.9%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
National CineMedia, Inc. is a small-cap company in the Services sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2861 of 7,333 overall (61st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -5.2% trailing the 5.3% sector median and operating margins of -13.0% below the 3.5% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Services peers.
While NCMI currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the SERVICES sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Services Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Upgrade catalyst
Improvement in Short Int. (22) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 12% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 198% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 58% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 25, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 44.7/100 at a current price of $3.40. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (67th percentile) and value (59th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (31th percentile) and momentum (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (35/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: momentum to confirm whether the current price trend has legs; sustainability of the current growth rate; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
National CineMedia, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 44.7/100 places it at rank #2861 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $436M in market capitalization, National CineMedia, Inc. is a small-cap player in the Services space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue is growing at 82%, though momentum at the 34th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 94% (+34.8pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -13% (-16.5pp vs sector) and net margins of -9.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -10%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $3.40, National CineMedia, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 59/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 164.5x (a 593% premium to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 10.4x (near the sector median), P/B of 0.9x, P/S of 1.4x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.
Gross margins of 94% signal strong pricing power and brand/IP advantages — businesses with margins above 40% have historically demonstrated more resilient earnings through economic cycles.
Revenue growth of 82% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
A conservative balance sheet (29% D/E) provides financial flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or weathering economic downturns without dilution.
The Reduce rating (composite 44.7/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
A P/E of 164.5x leaves little room for execution misses — any earnings disappointment could trigger a sharp multiple compression.
We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to National CineMedia, Inc.. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: current negative profitability (net margin -9.1%) and elevated valuation multiple (P/E 164.5x) that leaves limited margin for error. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: current negative profitability (net margin -9.1%); elevated valuation multiple (P/E 164.5x) that leaves limited margin for error. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 67th percentile and quality factor at the 54th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 94% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (29% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (67th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.
We rate National CineMedia, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-5.2%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -4.0%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — National CineMedia, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, National CineMedia, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 44.7/100 (rank #2861 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (35/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 49/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on National CineMedia, Inc. at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign National CineMedia, Inc. a meaningful economic moat, scoring 35/100 on our composite assessment. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 13.4/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (13.4/20) and financial resilience (10.4/20). GM 94% vs sector 60%, OM -13% vs sector 4%. Interest coverage N/A. These pillars form the core of National CineMedia, Inc.'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and economic value creation (1.1/20). Capital turnover N/A. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect National CineMedia, Inc.'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include gross margins of 94% providing a solid profitability foundation, robust top-line growth of 82% expanding the revenue base. The margin cascade from 94% gross to -13% operating to -9.1% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 54th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 94%, operating margins of -13%, net margins of -9.1%. Return metrics include ROE of -5.2% and ROA of -4.0%. Relative to the Services sector, gross margins are 34.8 percentage points above the sector median of 60%, and ROE of -5.2% compares to a sector median of 5.3%.
The balance sheet reflects a conservatively managed balance sheet with D/E of 29%, a dividend yield of 1.94%, revenue growth of 82%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting National CineMedia, Inc. at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Thin net margins of -9.1% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
Weak momentum (34th percentile) suggests institutional selling pressure and unfavorable technical dynamics that may persist.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
James Cameron, award-winning director known for "Avatar" and "Titanic," calls Netflix's proposed acquisition of WBD assets "disastrous" for theater business.
CENTENNIAL, Colo., February 19, 2026--National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI), the managing member of National CineMedia, LLC ("NCM LLC"), the operator of the largest cinema advertising platform in the U.S., plans to issue its fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, February 26, 2026. A conference call and audio webcast to discuss the results will take place at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
What the updated price target is really telling you The modeled fair value for National CineMedia has been trimmed slightly from US$5.75 to US$5.50 per share, paired with a small uptick in the discount rate from 6.956% to 6.978%. Together these changes point to analysts baking a bit more caution into their assumptions while still seeing the core story as intact. At the same time, adjustments to revenue growth assumptions signal that expectations are being recalibrated rather than reset, with...
Shares of Peraso Inc. (NASDAQ: PRSO) fell sharply during Tuesday’s session after the company reported worse-than-expected fourth-quarter EPS results. Peraso posted a quarterly loss of $8.52 per share, versus analysts’ estimates for a loss of $3.76 per share. The company’s quarterly sales came in at $1.83 million versus expectations of $1.70 million. Peraso shares tumbled 23.3% to $1.32 on Tuesday. Here are some other stocks moving in today's mid-day session. Gainers Ontrak, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTRK) shares climbed 197.8% to $0.5660 ahead of the company's presentation at the 36th Annual Roth Conference. Fusion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: FUSN) gained 97.3% to $20.99 after the company announced agreed to be acquired by AstraZeneca. Also, Leerink Partners downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform but raised its price target from $17 to $21. SCWorx Corp. (NASDAQ: WORX) gained 74% to $3.22. Spire Global, Inc. (NYSE: SPIR) climbed 50.7% to $18.50 after announcing a collaboration with NVIDIA to advance AI-driven weather prediction. Enveric Biosciences, Inc (NASDAQ: ENVB) shares climbed 43.6% to $1.5801 after the company announced that it signed two non-binding term sheets with an undisclosed biotechnology company to pursue the out-licensing of cannabinoid-COX-2 conjugate compounds for pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical applications for the treatment of joint diseases. Zoomcar Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZCAR) rose 33.1% to $1.57 after the company announced that it partnered with EaseMyTrip to integrate its cars within the travel platform. Hoth Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOTH) surged 32% to $1.51 after the company announced pre-clinical research showcasing the potential of HT-ALZ in Alzheimer's disease. Enliven Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ELVN) gained 27.2% to $16.09. The company announced a $90 million private placement financing and provided pipeline updates. National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) gained 25.5% to $5.30 after the company posted upbeat results for its fourth quarter and disclosed a new $100 million share repurchase program. The company said it sees first-quarter total revenue of $34.5 million to $35.5 million. Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) gained 17.7% to $5.50. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNX) rose 15% to $43.63 ...
National CineMedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCMI) posted upbeat results for its fourth quarter and disclosed a new $100 million share repurchase program. Operating revenue stood at $90.9 million, beating the consensus of $81.1 million. EPS of 24 cents beat the consensus of 9 cents, according to data from Benzinga Pro. For the first quarter of 2024, NCM expects revenue of $34.5 million-$35.5 million (vs. consensus of $32.47 million) and adjusted OIBDA loss in the range of $(7.5) million to $(6.5) million. “In 2023, NCM successfully re-established the importance of cinema for best-in-class advertisers, with movies driving the cultural ...