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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 53.8GRADE C+
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
8.0%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
INCOME
3.33%
Trailing Yield
$3.33
Per $100 Invested
Solid dividend yield for income-focused strategies.
Est. Payout Ratio
50%SAFE
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 50.2/100, ranked #1087 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 54/100, Value 71/100, Momentum 44/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does NBT BANCORP INC Do?
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York. NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) is classified as a mid-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Banking industry. The company is led by CEO John H. Watt and employs approximately 1,860 people, headquartered in NORWICH, New York. With a market capitalization of $2.2B, NBTB is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, NBT BANCORP INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.2/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.NBTB ranks #1,087 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, NBT BANCORP INC ranks #335 of 891 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
NBTB Stock Price and 52-Week Range
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) currently trades at $45.16. The stock lost $0.63 (1.4%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for NBTB is $46.92, which means the stock is currently trading -3.8% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $37.31, putting the stock 21.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 175K shares, suggesting relatively thin trading activity.
Is NBTB Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) carries a value factor score of 71/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 15.07x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a premium of 1%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 1.21x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 3.37x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, NBTB trades at 11.52x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, NBT BANCORP INC appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
NBT BANCORP INC Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) earns a quality factor score of 54/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 8.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is below typical expectations for high-quality companies. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 0.9% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, NBT BANCORP INC reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 29.2% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 22.4%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 26.3% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
NBTB Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
NBT BANCORP INC has a debt-to-equity ratio of 744.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.13x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $319M. Cash and equivalents stand at $246M.
NBTB has a beta of 0.75, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for NBT BANCORP INC is 83/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
NBT BANCORP INC Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, NBT BANCORP INC reported revenue of $679M and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.34. Net income for the quarter was $152M. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $199M.
In FY 2025, NBT BANCORP INC reported revenue of $183M and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.34. Net income for the quarter was $169M. Revenue grew 10.4% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $219M.
In Q3 2025, NBT BANCORP INC reported revenue of $190M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.04. Net income for the quarter was $54M. Revenue grew 21.9% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $72M.
In Q2 2025, NBT BANCORP INC reported revenue of $178M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45. Net income for the quarter was $23M. Revenue grew 17.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $31M.
Over the past 8 quarters, NBT BANCORP INC has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $151M to $679M. Investors analyzing NBTB stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
NBTB Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) currently pays a dividend yield of 3.3%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in NBTB stock would generate approximately $$333.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning NBTB offers above-average income for its sector. With a net margin of 22.4%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
NBTB Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) has a momentum factor score of 44/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 25/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 16/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
NBTB vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing NBTB against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full NBTB vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how NBT BANCORP INC stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
NBTB Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy NBTB? — Investment Thesis Summary
NBT BANCORP INC presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The value score of 71/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 83/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 50.2/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on NBTB stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
NBT BANCORP INC (NBTB) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) receives a Hold rating, justified by a balanced assessment of its financial performance, valuation, and risk profile. While NBTB exhibits strengths in profitability and stability, particularly compared to its sector, concerns regarding capital allocation and growth prospects temper enthusiasm. The current valuation appears fair, but not compelling enough to warrant a more bullish stance given the inherent uncertainties in the regional banking sector and NBTB's specific challenges in generating robust free cash flow.
The primary takeaway is that NBTB represents a stable, moderately profitable regional bank trading at a reasonable valuation. However, investors should remain cautious due to the bank's relatively high debt-to-equity ratio and the competitive pressures within its operating footprint. A significant catalyst, such as a strategic acquisition or a substantial improvement in capital allocation efficiency, would be needed to shift the rating to a Buy.
Business Strategy & Overview
NBT Bancorp operates as a financial holding company, providing a range of banking and wealth management services across its footprint in the Northeastern United States. The company generates revenue primarily through net interest income, derived from the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. Additionally, NBTB earns fees from wealth management activities, trust services, and insurance product sales. The bank's strategy centers on serving individuals, small businesses, and commercial clients within its geographic markets.
NBTB's strategic positioning emphasizes community banking principles, focusing on building long-term relationships with customers and providing personalized service. This approach aims to foster customer loyalty and generate stable deposit growth. The company also invests in technology to enhance its online and mobile banking platforms, seeking to improve customer convenience and efficiency. However, the competitive landscape in the regional banking sector is intense, with numerous players vying for market share.
The company's loan portfolio is diversified across commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, and consumer loans. This diversification helps to mitigate credit risk, but also requires expertise in managing different types of lending activities. NBTB's wealth management services provide a complementary revenue stream, offering financial planning, investment management, and retirement plan services. These services are particularly valuable in attracting and retaining high-net-worth clients.
NBTB's branch network, consisting of 140 branches and 164 ATMs, provides a physical presence in its key markets. While digital banking is increasingly important, the branch network remains a crucial channel for customer interaction and relationship building. The company's ability to adapt to changing customer preferences and technological advancements will be critical to its long-term success. Furthermore, the regulatory environment for banks is constantly evolving, requiring NBTB to maintain strong compliance programs and adapt to new rules and regulations.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
26.3%
Sector: 9.4%
+181% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
NBT Bancorp's economic moat can be classified as Narrow. The bank benefits from some degree of customer relationships and switching costs, particularly within its established community banking markets. However, these advantages are not substantial enough to create a wide moat, as customers can readily switch to competing banks or financial institutions.
The company's focus on relationship banking fosters customer loyalty, which can lead to higher retention rates and lower customer acquisition costs. However, this advantage is increasingly challenged by the rise of online banking and fintech companies, which offer convenient and competitive alternatives. The switching costs associated with changing banks are also declining, as customers can easily transfer accounts and automate payments.
NBTB's intangible assets, such as its brand reputation and local market knowledge, contribute to its competitive advantage. However, these assets are not unique or difficult to replicate. Other regional banks also possess strong brands and deep local market expertise. Furthermore, the commoditization of banking services reduces the value of intangible assets.
The bank does not possess significant cost advantages or operate in a market with efficient scale. Its operating expenses are comparable to those of its peers, and it does not have a dominant market share in any of its geographic regions. Therefore, NBTB's narrow moat is primarily based on customer relationships and limited switching costs, which are vulnerable to competitive pressures and technological disruption.
The increasing competition from larger national banks and fintech companies poses a significant threat to NBTB's moat. These competitors have greater resources and technological capabilities, allowing them to offer more innovative products and services. NBTB must continue to invest in technology and enhance its customer experience to maintain its competitive position.
Financial Health & Profitability
NBT Bancorp's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a TTM revenue of $182.95 million and a revenue growth rate of 26.3%, significantly exceeding the sector average of 9.3%. This growth is encouraging, suggesting that NBTB is effectively expanding its business and capturing market share. However, the quarterly revenue figures show some volatility, indicating that the growth may not be entirely consistent.
The company's profitability metrics are also relatively strong. NBTB's net margin of 22.4% and operating margin of 29.2% are both higher than the sector averages of 17.8% and 22.0%, respectively. This indicates that NBTB is efficiently managing its expenses and generating healthy profits from its operations. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 8.0% is slightly below the sector average of 8.5%, suggesting that NBTB could improve its capital allocation efficiency.
However, NBTB's balance sheet raises some concerns. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 744.00 is significantly higher than the sector average of 115.00. This high level of leverage increases the company's financial risk and could limit its ability to invest in growth opportunities or withstand economic downturns. The current ratio of 1.13 indicates that NBTB has sufficient liquidity to meet its short-term obligations, but the high debt level remains a concern.
The company's free cash flow is negative, with a TTM value of $-139.39 million. This is a significant weakness, as it indicates that NBTB is not generating enough cash from its operations to cover its capital expenditures and other cash outflows. The lack of free cash flow could constrain the company's ability to pay dividends, repurchase shares, or make acquisitions. The absence of free cash flow data in the quarterly financials makes it difficult to assess the trend and potential causes of this negative value.
The quarterly financial history reveals fluctuating operating margins, ranging from 17.3% to 119.9%. While the full-year operating margins are consistently high, the quarterly variations suggest potential inconsistencies in expense management or revenue recognition. Further investigation into the drivers of these fluctuations is warranted.
Valuation Assessment
NBT Bancorp's valuation appears to be reasonable based on several key metrics. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.2x is lower than the sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers. Similarly, the enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 2.4x is also lower than the sector average of 3.5x, further supporting the notion that NBTB is trading at a discount.
However, the negative free cash flow complicates the valuation assessment. The absence of a positive free cash flow yield makes it difficult to determine the intrinsic value of the company based on its cash-generating ability. Investors typically look for a positive free cash flow yield to indicate that a company is generating sufficient cash to justify its market capitalization.
Considering the company's growth rate, the current valuation appears fair. NBTB's revenue growth of 26.3% is significantly higher than the sector average, which could justify a higher valuation multiple. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and negative free cash flow offset some of the positive impact of the growth rate.
Compared to its historical valuation, NBTB's current P/E ratio is within its historical range. However, the lack of historical free cash flow data makes it difficult to assess whether the current valuation is consistent with its historical cash-generating ability. A more comprehensive valuation analysis would require a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, which would incorporate assumptions about future revenue growth, profitability, and capital expenditures.
Overall, NBTB's valuation can be characterized as fair, but not compelling. The company's lower P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest that it may be undervalued relative to its peers, but the negative free cash flow and high debt level warrant caution. Investors should carefully consider the company's growth prospects, financial health, and risk profile before making an investment decision.
Risk & Uncertainty
NBT Bancorp faces several specific risks that could negatively impact its business and financial performance. One of the most significant risks is the intense competition in the regional banking sector. NBTB operates in a highly competitive market with numerous other banks and financial institutions vying for market share. This competition could lead to lower interest rates, reduced fees, and increased marketing expenses, which could negatively impact NBTB's profitability.
Another risk is the potential for credit losses. NBTB's loan portfolio is exposed to credit risk, which is the risk that borrowers will default on their loans. Economic downturns, rising interest rates, and other factors could increase the likelihood of loan defaults, which could result in significant losses for NBTB. The company's high debt-to-equity ratio exacerbates this risk, as it reduces NBTB's ability to absorb losses.
Regulatory risk is also a concern. Banks are subject to extensive regulation, and changes in regulations could negatively impact NBTB's business. For example, changes in capital requirements, lending restrictions, or consumer protection laws could increase NBTB's compliance costs or limit its ability to generate revenue. The company's ability to adapt to evolving regulatory requirements is critical to its long-term success.
Interest rate risk is another significant factor. NBTB's profitability is sensitive to changes in interest rates. Rising interest rates could increase the company's funding costs, while declining interest rates could reduce its net interest margin. The company's ability to manage its interest rate risk is crucial to maintaining its profitability.
Finally, concentration risk is a potential concern. While the loan portfolio is diversified, there may be concentrations within specific industries or geographic regions. An economic downturn in a particular industry or region could disproportionately impact NBTB's loan portfolio and financial performance.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWNBTB's strong revenue growth and profitability metrics, exceeding sector averages, indicate a well-managed and efficient operation poised for continued success.
BULL VIEWThe bank's focus on community banking and relationship building provides a competitive advantage, fostering customer loyalty and generating stable deposit growth in its established markets.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWNBTB's high debt-to-equity ratio and negative free cash flow raise concerns about its financial health and ability to invest in future growth.
BEAR VIEWThe intense competition in the regional banking sector and the rise of fintech companies pose a significant threat to NBTB's market share and profitability.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score NBTB and 4,400+ other equities.
NBT BANCORP INC exhibits a 132% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
0.9%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
29.2%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
22.4%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta+34%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $333 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
