NBIX

We rate NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC (NBIX) as a Hold with a composite score of 59.0/100 at a current price of $130.68. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (80th percentile) and value (74th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (37th percentile) and momentum (46th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (53/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is widening, which provides additional comfort in the durability of the competitive position.

NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 59.0/100 places it at rank #785 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $13.9B market capitalization, NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 35%, though momentum at the 46th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 98% (+55.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 21% (+19.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 16.1%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 16%. This conversion rate is typical for the sector, suggesting a standard cost structure without notable efficiency advantages or disadvantages.

At a current price of $130.68, NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 74/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 28.4x (a 28% premium to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 21.8x (at a premium), P/B of 4.0x, P/S of 4.8x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.85, conservative leverage (42% D/E), and a stability factor in the 72th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 72th percentile with quality at the 80th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 98% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (72th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 14.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 42%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 59.0/100 (rank #785 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (53/100, trend: widening), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 62/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.