MPB

We rate MID PENN BANCORP INC (MPB) as a Reduce with a composite score of 47.8/100 at a current price of $32.50. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (71th percentile) and stability (55th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (32th percentile) and investment (36th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (55/100), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

MID PENN BANCORP INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 47.8/100 places it at rank #2347 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $659M in market capitalization, MID PENN BANCORP INC is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 22% and momentum in the 71th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 36th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 19% (+2.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 15.7%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $32.50, MID PENN BANCORP INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 45/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 16.0x (a 34% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 13.0x (at a premium), P/B of 1.0x, P/S of 2.5x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to MID PENN BANCORP INC. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (687% debt-to-equity) and weak quality scores (32th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (687% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (32th percentile); low beta of 0.68 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 55th percentile and quality factor at the 32th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 2.79% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate MID PENN BANCORP INC's capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include elevated leverage (687% D/E), weak asset returns (ROA 0.8%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — MID PENN BANCORP INC significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, MID PENN BANCORP INC receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 47.8/100 (rank #2347 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (55/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 48/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on MID PENN BANCORP INC at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, medium uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.