MFIN

We rate MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP (MFIN) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.9/100 at a current price of $10.11. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (60th percentile) and momentum (56th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (28th percentile) and investment (38th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (27/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.9/100 places it at rank #2502 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $235M in market capitalization, MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 58%, though momentum at the 56th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 24% (+6.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 16.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $10.11, MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 49/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 4.8x (a 60% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 6.1x (discounted to peers), P/B of 0.5x, P/S of 0.8x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.56, conservative leverage (43% D/E), and a stability factor in the 60th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (28th percentile); low beta of 0.56 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 60th percentile and quality factor at the 28th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (60th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 4.55% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 10.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 43%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.55% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.9/100 (rank #2502 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (27/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 46/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on MEDALLION FINANCIAL CORP at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.