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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1969
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$243M
James R. Heslop
Middlefield Banc Corp. operates as the bank holding company for The Middlefield Banking Company. It provides checking, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal accounts, money market accounts, time certificates of deposit, commercial loans, real estate loans, various consumer loans, and travelers' checks. The company resolves and disposes troubled assets in Ohio.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = MBCN ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$MBCN MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP | 50 | 31 | 44 | 68 | 15.3x | 12.9x | 8.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 27.6% | 23.2% | -22.3% | 2.8% | 783.0x | $243M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP (MBCN) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 50.2/100. It ranks #1969 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
High volatility — wider range of outcomes increases timing risk
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for MBCN.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 31 | 37 | -6DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 68 | 75 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 44 | 53 | -9DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 42 | 79 | -37DRAG |
| STABILITY | 31 | 22 | +9ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 78 | 89 | -11DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 14.0% vs WACC 8.9% (spread +5.1%)
GM 0% vs sector 78%, OM 28% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.55x
Rev growth -22%, 10yr history
Interest coverage 0.6x, Net debt/EBITDA 5.6x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP (MBCN) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.2/100 at a current price of $34.09. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.2/100 places it at rank #1969 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at -22% and momentum in the 68th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 783% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP a Hold rating, with a composite score of 50.2/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1969 of 7,333 stocks, MBCN presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
MBCN's quality score of 31/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 8.3% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 0.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 23.2% (sector avg: 21.9%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 44/100, MBCN appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 15.33x, an EV/EBITDA of 12.86x, a P/B ratio of 1.28x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
With an investment score of 42/100, MBCN exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of -22.3% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 0.9% (sector: 1.3%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
MBCN demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 68/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at -22.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.07 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
MBCN's stability score of 31/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.07 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 783.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
MBCN carries a short interest score of 78/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 783.00x), micro-cap liquidity risk. At $243M market cap (micro-cap), MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
MBCN pays a solid dividend yield of 2.8%, contributing an income component to total returns. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. This moderate yield suggests a balance between returning capital to shareholders and retaining earnings for reinvestment — a common profile among quality compounders.
MIDDLEFIELD BANC CORP is a micro-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1969 of 7,333 overall (73rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 8.3% trailing the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 27.6% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While MBCN currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Short Int. (78) vs Quality (31) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 66% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 8% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 100% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
MIDDLEFIELD, Ohio, Feb. 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: MBCN) today reported financial results for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025. Ronald L. Zimmerly, Jr., President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “2025 was a strong year of operating and financial growth for Middlefield, driven by consistent execution and continued momentum across the Bank. We are pleased with the progress we’ve made and are focused on completing our merger with Farmers National Banc
CANFIELD, Ohio & MIDDLEFIELD, Ohio, February 10, 2026--Farmers National Banc Corp. ("Farmers") (NASDAQ: FMNB), the holding company for The Farmers National Bank of Canfield, and Middlefield Banc Corp. ("Middlefield") (NASDAQ: MBCN), the holding company for The Middlefield Banking Company, jointly announced today that shareholders of Farmers and Middlefield each have approved the proposed merger of Middlefield with and into Farmers (the "Merger"). The Merger is expected to be completed during the
Middlefield Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: MBCN) announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per common share for the 2026 first quarter, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026. The bank holding company, headquartered in Ohio, operates 21 banking centers with total assets of $1.98 billion as of September 30, 2025.
Monteverde & Associates PC, a class action securities firm, is investigating four merger and acquisition transactions: Tamboran Resources' merger with Falcon Oil & Gas, First Foundation's sale to FirstSun Capital Bancorp (shareholder vote Feb 27), FG Merger II's merger with Boxabl Inc., and Middlefield Banc's sale to Farmers National Banc Corp (shareholder vote Feb 10). The firm invites shareholders to contact them regarding potential concerns about these deals.