MANH

We rate MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC (MANH) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.5/100 at a current price of $132.60. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (85th percentile) and stability (63th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. All factors score above the 40th percentile, indicating no material weakness in the quantitative profile. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (56/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Services sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.5/100 places it at rank #961 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $12.4B market capitalization, MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC operates at meaningful scale within the Services sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 4%, though momentum at the 46th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 56% (-3.1pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 27% (+23.2pp vs sector) and net margins of 21.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 38%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $132.60, MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 52/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 37.3x (a 57% premium to the sector median of 23.7x), EV/EBITDA of 29.3x (at a premium), P/B of 27.4x, P/S of 8.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis partially supports given strong quality metrics.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC. Key risk factors include elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.37), significant leverage (167% debt-to-equity). The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: elevated market sensitivity (beta of 1.37); significant leverage (167% debt-to-equity). Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 63th percentile and quality factor at the 85th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 56% provide a buffer against cost pressures; above-average stability (63th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.

We rate MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 73.6%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 167%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.5/100 (rank #961 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (56/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 59/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on MANHATTAN ASSOCIATES INC. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.