KEY

We rate KEYCORP /NEW/ (KEY) as a Hold with a composite score of 54.0/100 at a current price of $20.93. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (78th percentile) and value (53th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (22th percentile) and quality (32th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (23/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: sustainability of the current growth rate. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

KEYCORP /NEW/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 54.0/100 places it at rank #1388 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $20.5B market capitalization, KEYCORP /NEW/ operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 25% and momentum in the 78th percentile confirming positive market sentiment and institutional accumulation. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy. Investment factor at the 22th percentile indicates reinvestment patterns that investors should monitor for sustainability.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 4% (-12.7pp vs sector) and net margins of 3.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $20.93, KEYCORP /NEW/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 53/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 26.9x (a 126% premium to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 13.9x (at a premium), P/B of 1.2x, P/S of 4.0x. The above-sector P/E multiple suggests the market is pricing in superior growth or quality, which our analysis finds only partially justified by current fundamentals.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to KEYCORP /NEW/. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: weak quality scores (32th percentile) and the combination of leverage (54% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: weak quality scores (32th percentile); the combination of leverage (54% D/E) and thin margins (3.2% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 51th percentile and quality factor at the 32th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: a 4.39% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate KEYCORP /NEW/'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 4.5%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 54%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; KEYCORP /NEW/ falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 4.39% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, KEYCORP /NEW/ receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 54.0/100 (rank #1388 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (23/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 47/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on KEYCORP /NEW/. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.