Equity Research Analysis: Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE (JCAP)
|Blank Capital Research Unit|Spot: $20.02
Price$20.02
Composite Score49.1/100
RatingREDUCE (2★)
Rank#2143 OF 7,333
Market Cap$1.0B
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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2143
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$1.0B
David Burton
We are a leading analytically driven purchaser and manager of charged-off and insolvency consumer accounts with operations primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Latin America. Our principal executive offices are located in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = JCAP ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 20.9% | 100.0% | 97.1% | 554.8% | -19.0% | 0.0% | - | $32.0B | VS | |
$JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE | 49 | 69 | 64 | 36 | 33.9x | 4.5x | 35.1% | 8.5% | 100.0% | 46.4% | 25.4% | 36.4% | 1.4% | 312.0x | $1.0B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 9.0% | 1.3% | 77.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 2.0% | 0.5x | - | REF |
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE (JCAP) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 49.1/100. It ranks #2143 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Lagging peers — losers tend to keep underperforming
Trading at a discount to fundamentals — favorable entry valuation
High profitability & efficiency — strong quality floor supports entry
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for JCAP.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 69 | 91 | -22DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 36 | 33 | +3NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 64 | 88 | -24DRAG |
| INVESTMENT | 19 | 2 | +17ALPHA |
| STABILITY | 38 | 32 | +6ALPHA |
| SHORT INT | 55 | 66 | -11DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 5.1% vs WACC 6.0% (spread -0.9%)
GM 100% vs sector 78%, OM 46% vs sector 18%
Capital turnover 0.13x
Rev growth 36%
Interest coverage 2.6x, Net debt/EBITDA 16.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE (JCAP) as a Reduce with a composite score of 49.1/100 at a current price of $20.02. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 49.1/100 places it at rank #2143 in our full universe.
No Moat
High
Standard
Undervalued
Gross margins of 100% signal strong pricing power.
Returns on equity of 35.1% exceed cost of capital.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Leverage of 312% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks and interest rate volatility.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE represents a reduce based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 49.1/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2143 out of 7,333 stocks. JCAP's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
JCAP earns a quality score of 69/100, indicating above-average business quality. The company reports a return on equity of 35.1% (sector avg: 9.0%), gross margins of 100.0% (sector avg: 77.7%), net margins of 25.4% (sector avg: 21.9%). Companies in this tier generally demonstrate consistent profitability and efficient capital deployment, though they may face some competitive pressure.
JCAP's value score of 64/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 33.90x, an EV/EBITDA of 4.55x, a P/B ratio of 2.97x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE's investment score of 19/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 36.4% vs. a sector average of 10.7% and a return on assets of 8.5% (sector: 1.3%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
JCAP is currently showing below-average momentum at 36/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 36.4% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.40 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
JCAP's stability score of 38/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.40 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 312.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
The short interest score of 55/100 for JCAP suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.40), elevated leverage (D/E: 312.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. With a $1.0B market cap (small-cap), Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
JCAP offers a modest dividend yield of 1.4%. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 2.0%. While the income contribution is relatively small, even a small dividend signals management's commitment to shareholder returns and can serve as a signal of financial discipline.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. / DE is a small-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2143 of 7,333 overall (71st percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 35.1% exceeding the 9.0% sector median and operating margins of 46.4% above the 18.1% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While JCAP currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Investment (19) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA 41% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
ROE 290% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 29% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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If you are wondering whether Jefferson Capital’s current share price lines up with its underlying value, this article will walk through what the numbers are actually saying. The stock recently closed at US$21.87, with returns of a 6.4% decline over the last 7 days, a 3.1% decline over 30 days, and a 1.1% decline year to date, which may hint at shifting views on its prospects and risk. Recent coverage has focused on Jefferson Capital’s position within the diversified financials space and how...
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