IX

We rate ORIX CORP (IX) as a Hold with a composite score of 57.0/100 at a current price of $35.15. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in quality (71th percentile) and value (70th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in stability (31th percentile) and investment (39th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (25/100), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

ORIX CORP holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 57.0/100 places it at rank #1024 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $25.4B market capitalization, ORIX CORP operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 3%, though momentum at the 47th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 99% (+22.9pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 12% (-5.5pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.2%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 12%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $35.15, ORIX CORP appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 70/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 3.3x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 0.5x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.

We assign a Medium uncertainty rating to ORIX CORP. The stock presents a balanced risk profile: significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity) and below-average price stability (31th percentile). While not risk-free, the core business fundamentals are adequate to withstand moderate economic stress, and the range of potential outcomes around our fair value estimate is manageable.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (154% debt-to-equity); below-average price stability (31th percentile); low beta of 0.34 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 31th percentile and quality factor at the 71th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 99% provide a buffer against cost pressures. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate ORIX CORP's capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 34.4%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 154%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; ORIX CORP falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. Absent a dividend, the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, ORIX CORP receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 57.0/100 (rank #1024 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (25/100, trend: stable), Medium uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 52/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on ORIX CORP. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.