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Relative valuation derived from Financials sector median benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Multiples adjusted for extreme outliers and non-recurring volatility.
Auditing capital efficiency...
Quality Profile Audit
Score: 61.5GRADE B
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation.
Return on Equity
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
11.3%
Sector: 8.5%
Dividend Analysis audit
HIGH YIELD
20.47%
Trailing Yield
$20.47
Per $100 Invested
Attractive yield supported by strong profitability.
Est. Payout Ratio
158%HIGH
Analyst Projections
Analyst Consensus
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Based on our 6-factor quantitative model, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 52.4/100, ranked #1110 out of 4446 stocks. Key factor scores: Quality 62/100, Value 80/100, Momentum 40/100. This is quantitative analysis only — not investment advice.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Stock Analysis — April 2026 Rating, Price, and Forecast
Company Overview — What Does Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Do?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is classified as a small-cap stock in the Financials sector, specifically within the Trading industry. The company is led by CEO John M. Anzalone, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. With a market capitalization of $695M, IVR is one of the notable companies in the Financials sector.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Stock Rating — Hold (April 2026)
As of April 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.4/100 and 3 out of 5 stars from the Blank Capital Research quantitative model.IVR ranks #1,110 out of 4,446 stocks in our coverage universe. Within the Financials sector, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. ranks #346 of 891 stocks, placing it in the upper half of its Financials peers. The rating is generated by a multi-factor model that weighs quality (30%), momentum (25%), value (15%), investment (10%), stability (10%), and short interest (10%).
IVR Stock Price and 52-Week Range
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) currently trades at $8.43. The stock gained $0.06 (0.7%) in the most recent trading session. The 52-week high for IVR is $9.50, which means the stock is currently trading -11.3% from its annual peak. The 52-week low is $5.86, putting the stock 44.0% above its annual trough. Recent trading volume was 1.4M shares, reflecting moderate market activity.
Is IVR Overvalued or Undervalued? — Valuation Analysis
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) carries a value factor score of 80/100 in the Blank Capital model, suggesting the stock trades at a meaningful discount to its fundamental earning power. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 7.71x, compared to the Financials sector average of 14.88x — a discount of 48%. The price-to-book ratio stands at 0.88x, versus the sector average of 1.22x. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.40x, compared to 0.90x for the average Financials stock. On an enterprise value basis, IVR trades at 2.56x EV/EBITDA, versus 3.26x for the sector.
Based on these multiples, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. appears attractively valued relative to both its sector peers and the broader market. Value-oriented investors may find the current entry point compelling, particularly if the company's fundamental quality metrics also score well.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Profitability — ROE, Margins, and Quality Score
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) earns a quality factor score of 62/100, indicating solid business quality with consistent operational execution. The return on equity (ROE) is 11.3%, compared to the Financials sector average of 8.5%, which is within a healthy range. Return on assets (ROA) comes in at 1.4% versus the sector average of 1.2%.
On a margin basis, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reports gross margins of 0.0%. The operating margin is 93.6% (sector: 21.8%). Net profit margin stands at 30.5%, versus 17.7% for the average Financials stock. Revenue growth is running at 7.2% on a trailing basis, compared to 9.4% for the sector. The overall profitability profile is adequate, though there may be room for margin expansion.
IVR Debt, Balance Sheet, and Financial Health
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has a debt-to-equity ratio of 712.0%, compared to the Financials sector average of 121.0%. This elevated leverage warrants close monitoring, as it increases the company's sensitivity to rising interest rates and economic downturns. The current ratio is 1.14x, suggesting adequate working capital coverage. Total debt on the balance sheet is $5.15B. Cash and equivalents stand at $59M.
IVR has a beta of 0.78, meaning it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a relatively defensive holding. The stability factor score for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. is 73/100, indicating low-volatility characteristics and consistent price behavior that appeals to risk-averse investors.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. Revenue and Earnings History — Quarterly Trend
In TTM 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported revenue of $291M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.32. Net income for the quarter was $91M. Gross margin was 0.0%. Operating income came in at $273M.
In FY 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported revenue of $295M and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.32. Net income for the quarter was $101M. Revenue grew 3.1% year-over-year compared to FY 2024. Operating income came in at $277M.
In Q3 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported revenue of $73M and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.74. Net income for the quarter was $53M. Revenue grew -1.2% year-over-year compared to Q3 2024. Operating income came in at $68M.
In Q2 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported revenue of $71M and earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.40. Net income for the quarter was $-23M. Revenue grew 3.8% year-over-year compared to Q2 2024. Operating income came in at $66M.
Over the past 8 quarters, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has demonstrated a growth trajectory, with revenue expanding from $68M to $291M. Investors analyzing IVR stock should weigh these quarterly trends alongside the valuation and quality metrics discussed above.
IVR Dividend Yield and Income Analysis
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) currently pays a dividend yield of 20.5%. At this yield, a $10,000 investment in IVR stock would generate approximately $$2047.00 in annual dividend income. This compares to the Financials sector average dividend yield of 2.5%, meaning IVR offers above-average income for its sector. With a net margin of 30.5%, the dividend appears well-covered by earnings, suggesting sustainable payouts going forward.
IVR Momentum and Technical Analysis Profile
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) has a momentum factor score of 40/100, reflecting neutral trend characteristics. The stock is neither significantly outperforming nor underperforming the broader market on a momentum basis. The investment factor score is 30/100, which measures capital allocation efficiency and asset growth patterns. The short interest score of 16/100 signals elevated short interest, which can indicate bearish sentiment among institutional investors.
IVR vs Competitors — Financials Sector Ranking and Peer Comparison
Comparing IVR against the S&P 500 benchmark is also instructive for understanding relative performance. Investors can view the full IVR vs S&P 500 (SPY) comparison to assess how Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. stacks up against the broader market across all factor dimensions.
IVR Next Earnings Date
No upcoming earnings date has been announced for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) at this time. Check the earnings calendar for the latest scheduling updates across all stocks in our coverage universe.
Should You Buy IVR? — Investment Thesis Summary
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. presents a balanced picture with arguments on both sides. The quality score of 62/100 indicates above-average profitability and business fundamentals. The value score of 80/100 suggests attractive pricing relative to fundamentals. Low volatility (stability score 73/100) reduces downside risk.
In summary, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) earns a Hold rating with a composite score of 52.4/100 as of April 2026. The rating is derived from the Blank Capital Research methodology, which combines six factor dimensions into a single quantitative ranking. Investors should consider these quantitative signals alongside their own fundamental research, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon before making buy or sell decisions on IVR stock.
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Institutional Research Dossier
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) Deep Dive Analysis
Published on March 24, 2026
Action RatingHold
Sections
Executive Summary
We maintain a Hold rating on Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR). The company's attractive valuation multiples, particularly its low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios relative to the Financials sector, are offset by its high leverage and the inherent risks associated with its mortgage-backed securities portfolio. While IVR demonstrates strong profitability metrics like ROE and operating margin, its reliance on debt financing and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations warrant a cautious approach.
The primary concern revolves around IVR's ability to navigate a potentially volatile interest rate environment and manage its substantial debt burden. While the company's historical operating margins are impressive, the sustainability of these margins in the face of changing economic conditions remains uncertain. The Hold rating reflects a balanced view, acknowledging the potential upside from its valuation while recognizing the significant risks associated with its business model and financial structure.
Business Strategy & Overview
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the acquisition, financing, and management of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other mortgage-related assets. The core of IVR's business model involves leveraging its capital to invest in a diverse portfolio of RMBS and CMBS, with a significant portion guaranteed by U.S. government agencies or government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). This strategy aims to generate income from the spread between the interest earned on these assets and the cost of financing them.
IVR's investment strategy encompasses both agency and non-agency MBS, as well as credit risk transfer (CRT) securities and residential and commercial mortgage loans. The company's focus on agency MBS provides a degree of safety due to the government guarantee, while its investments in non-agency MBS and CRT securities offer the potential for higher returns but also carry greater credit risk. The company actively manages its portfolio composition to optimize risk-adjusted returns, taking into account factors such as interest rate volatility, credit spreads, and prepayment speeds.
As a REIT, IVR is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to stockholders, which typically results in a high dividend yield. This characteristic makes IVR attractive to income-seeking investors. However, it also means that the company has limited retained earnings for reinvestment and growth, making it heavily reliant on external financing to fund its operations and expand its portfolio.
The company's strategic positioning within the mortgage REIT sector is influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rate trends and the overall health of the housing market. IVR's performance is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates, as rising rates can increase its borrowing costs and decrease the value of its MBS portfolio. Furthermore, economic downturns and housing market declines can lead to increased credit losses and reduced demand for mortgage-related assets, negatively impacting IVR's profitability.
Execution Benchmarks audit
Revenue Growth
YOY expansion rate
7.2%
Sector: 9.4%
-23% VS SCTR
Economic Moat Analysis
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. possesses a very narrow economic moat, bordering on no moat at all. The mortgage REIT industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for similar investment opportunities. IVR's ability to generate sustainable excess returns is limited by the commoditized nature of its primary assets, mortgage-backed securities, and the ease with which competitors can replicate its investment strategy.
The company does not benefit from significant network effects, switching costs, or intangible assets. While IVR has developed expertise in managing its MBS portfolio and navigating the complexities of the mortgage market, this expertise is not unique and can be acquired by other firms. The absence of proprietary technology or exclusive access to investment opportunities further weakens its competitive position.
Cost advantages are also minimal in the mortgage REIT sector. IVR's operating expenses are relatively low, as evidenced by its high operating margin, but these cost efficiencies are not substantial enough to create a significant competitive advantage. The company's primary cost driver is its borrowing expenses, which are largely determined by prevailing interest rates and its credit rating.
Efficient scale is not a relevant factor in IVR's business model. While the company's size allows it to access a wider range of investment opportunities and potentially negotiate better financing terms, these advantages are not significant enough to create a durable competitive advantage. Smaller mortgage REITs can often achieve similar returns by focusing on niche markets or employing different investment strategies.
The lack of a strong economic moat makes IVR vulnerable to competition and macroeconomic shocks. The company's profitability is highly dependent on its ability to accurately predict interest rate movements and manage its portfolio risk effectively. Any missteps in these areas can quickly erode its earnings and undermine its financial performance. Given the ease of entry and exit in the mortgage REIT sector, IVR faces constant pressure to maintain its returns and attract capital.
Financial Health & Profitability
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. exhibits a mixed financial profile. The company's revenue has shown modest growth, with revenue increasing from $277.93 million in FY2023 to $295.29 million in FY2025. Net income has been more volatile, with a net loss of $15.86 million in FY2023, followed by a net income of $59.88 million in FY2024 and $101.28 million in FY2025. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of IVR's earnings to changes in interest rates and credit spreads.
IVR's profitability metrics are generally strong. The company's operating margin consistently exceeds 90%, reflecting its efficient cost structure. Its net margin of 30.5% is significantly higher than the sector average of 17.8%, indicating superior profitability. The company's ROE of 11.4% also surpasses the sector average of 8.5%, demonstrating its ability to generate returns on equity. However, these metrics should be viewed in the context of the company's high leverage.
The most concerning aspect of IVR's financial health is its high level of debt. The company's total debt stands at $5.15 billion, while its total cash is only $58.54 million. This results in a very high debt-to-equity ratio of 712.00, which is significantly higher than the sector average of 115.00. This high leverage amplifies the company's exposure to interest rate risk and increases the likelihood of financial distress in the event of adverse market conditions.
The company's current ratio of 1.14 indicates that it has sufficient current assets to cover its current liabilities. However, this metric does not fully capture the risks associated with its high debt burden. IVR's ability to service its debt obligations depends on its ability to generate consistent earnings from its MBS portfolio. Any disruption to its earnings stream could jeopardize its financial stability.
Analyzing the quarterly financial history reveals further insights. While the company has generally maintained high operating margins, its net income has fluctuated significantly from quarter to quarter. This volatility is primarily driven by changes in the fair value of its MBS portfolio and fluctuations in its financing costs. The negative net income in Q2 2025 and Q2 2024 highlights the potential for significant losses in adverse market conditions.
Valuation Assessment
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. appears undervalued based on several key valuation metrics. The company's P/E ratio of 5.8x is significantly lower than the Financials sector average of 15.5x, suggesting that the market is undervaluing its earnings potential. Similarly, its EV/EBITDA ratio of 0.6x is substantially below the sector average of 3.5x, further indicating undervaluation.
However, these low valuation multiples should be interpreted with caution. Mortgage REITs are often valued differently than other companies due to their unique business model and high leverage. The market may be discounting IVR's valuation to reflect the risks associated with its high debt burden and sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.
A more comprehensive valuation analysis would require a detailed assessment of IVR's net asset value (NAV) and its ability to generate sustainable earnings. Unfortunately, the provided data does not include NAV information, which is a critical metric for valuing mortgage REITs. Without NAV data, it is difficult to determine whether the company's stock price is trading at a discount or premium to its intrinsic value.
The company's free cash flow (FCF) of $174.56 million is a positive sign, indicating that it is generating cash from its operations. However, it is important to note that FCF can be volatile for mortgage REITs due to changes in their investment portfolio and financing activities. A more reliable measure of value would be to analyze the company's dividend yield and its ability to sustain its dividend payments over time.
Given the limited data available, it is difficult to make a definitive assessment of IVR's valuation. While the company's low P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios suggest undervaluation, its high leverage and the inherent risks associated with its business model warrant a cautious approach. A more thorough valuation analysis would require additional information, including NAV data, dividend yield analysis, and a detailed assessment of its portfolio risk.
Risk & Uncertainty
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. faces several significant risks that could negatively impact its financial performance and undermine its investment thesis. The most prominent risk is interest rate risk. As a mortgage REIT, IVR's profitability is highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. Rising interest rates can increase its borrowing costs, decrease the value of its MBS portfolio, and reduce the demand for mortgage-related assets. The company attempts to mitigate this risk through hedging strategies, but these strategies may not be fully effective in all market conditions.
Credit risk is another significant concern. While a substantial portion of IVR's MBS portfolio is guaranteed by U.S. government agencies or GSEs, its investments in non-agency MBS and CRT securities expose it to credit losses. Economic downturns and housing market declines can lead to increased defaults and foreclosures, resulting in losses on these investments. The company's ability to accurately assess and manage credit risk is crucial to its long-term success.
Liquidity risk is also a factor. IVR relies heavily on short-term financing to fund its operations. Any disruption to the credit markets or a decline in investor confidence could limit its access to financing and force it to sell assets at unfavorable prices. The company's ability to maintain adequate liquidity is essential to its ability to meet its obligations and capitalize on investment opportunities.
Regulatory risk is an ongoing concern for mortgage REITs. Changes in government regulations or accounting standards could negatively impact IVR's business model and financial performance. For example, changes to the capital requirements for mortgage REITs or the treatment of mortgage-related assets could increase its borrowing costs or reduce its profitability.
Finally, competition within the mortgage REIT sector is intense. Numerous players are vying for similar investment opportunities, which can put pressure on yields and reduce profitability. IVR's ability to differentiate itself from its competitors and generate superior returns is critical to its long-term success.
Bulls Say / Bears Say
The Bull Case
BULL VIEWInvesco Mortgage Capital's low valuation multiples, particularly its P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios, suggest significant upside potential as the market re-rates the stock to reflect its strong profitability metrics.
BULL VIEWThe company's high operating margin and ROE demonstrate its ability to generate returns, making it an attractive investment for income-seeking investors looking for a high dividend yield.
BULL VIEWIVR's experienced management team and diversified MBS portfolio position it well to navigate market volatility and capitalize on investment opportunities in the mortgage market.
The Bear Case
BEAR VIEWInvesco Mortgage Capital's high debt-to-equity ratio exposes it to significant interest rate risk and increases the likelihood of financial distress in adverse market conditions.
BEAR VIEWThe company's reliance on short-term financing makes it vulnerable to liquidity risk, particularly during periods of credit market disruption or economic uncertainty.
BEAR VIEWThe commoditized nature of mortgage-backed securities and intense competition within the mortgage REIT sector limit IVR's ability to generate sustainable excess returns.
About the Author
Marques Blank
Founder & Chief Investment Officer, Blank Capital
Marques brings 15 years of institutional finance and investing experience, having overseen financial planning for a $1.6B defense business unit. He developed the proprietary 6-factor quantitative model used to score IVR and 4,400+ other equities.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. exhibits a 17% valuation premium relative to institutional benchmarks. This represents a potential valuation overextension based on current multiples.
Return on Assets
Efficiency of asset utilization
1.4%
Sector: 1.2%
Gross Margin
Pricing power and cost efficiency
0.0%
Sector: 0.0%
Operating Margin
Core business profitability
93.6%
Sector: 21.8%
Net Margin
Bottom-line profitability
30.5%
Sector: 17.7%
Factor Methodology
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior competitive moats and financial resilience through economic cycles.
Sector Avg Yield2.48%
Yield Delta+725%
Income Projection audit
A $10,000 investment would generate approximately $2047 annually in dividends at the current trailing rate.
