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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2706
Positioning
Market Dominance
Manufacturing
Business Supplies
$24.2B
Mark S. Sutton
International Paper Company operates as a packaging company primarily in the United States, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Asia, and rest of the Americas. The Global Cellulose Fibers segment provides fluff, market, and specialty pulps that are used in absorbent hygiene products, such as baby diapers, feminine care, adult incontinence, and other non-woven products.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = IP ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$UL UNILEVER PLC | 78 | 96 | 98 | 59 | - | - | 28.5% | 8.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 10.4% | -4.6% | 3.3% | 0.0x | $141.8B | VS | |
$ASML ASML HOLDING NV | 77 | 89 | 86 | 83 | - | - | 46.1% | 16.6% | 51.3% | 31.9% | 26.8% | -4.0% | 1.0% | 25.0x | $272.1B | VS | |
$ESLT ELBIT SYSTEMS LTD | 76 | 81 | 87 | 85 | - | - | 10.3% | 3.1% | 24.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 25.0x | $11.4B | VS | |
$MT ArcelorMittal | 75 | 71 | 98 | 85 | - | - | 2.2% | 1.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -8.5% | 2.2% | 16.0x | $18.9B | VS | |
$AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 75 | 85 | 87 | 84 | 20.9x | 13.6x | 35.5% | 19.8% | 48.7% | 29.2% | 24.7% | 4.4% | 0.8% | 32.0x | $181.9B | VS | |
$SIMO Silicon Motion Technology CORP | 75 | 84 | 86 | 85 | - | - | 11.8% | 8.8% | 45.9% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 25.7% | 3.7% | 0.0x | $1.8B | VS | |
$CODA Coda Octopus Group, Inc. | 74 | 83 | 90 | 79 | 16.3x | 11.9x | 7.6% | 7.0% | 66.5% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $115M | VS | |
$GSK GSK plc | 74 | 84 | 90 | 70 | - | - | 22.6% | 4.9% | 71.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 124.0x | $72.1B | VS | |
$EFXT Enerflex Ltd. | 74 | 80 | 91 | 83 | - | - | 3.0% | 1.1% | 20.9% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 67.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | 74 | 84 | 97 | 63 | - | - | 8.2% | 3.5% | 55.3% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.0x | $87.0B | VS | |
$IP INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ | 46 | 43 | 43 | 41 | - | 11.1x | -5.7% | -2.4% | 28.9% | -1.6% | -3.8% | 31.4% | 4.0% | 134.0x | $24.2B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 22.3x | 11.5x | -2.5% | -0.1% | 42.5% | 1.3% | -0.2% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.2x | - | REF |
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ (IP) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 45.6/100. It ranks #2706 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Core pricing power
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Mark S. Sutton
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
39,000
43
20
70
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for IP
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Fair valuation relative to peers
Average quality profile
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Aggressive spending — empire-building risk, dilutive growth
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Manufacturing sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for IP.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
ROIC -4.6% vs WACC 6.8% (spread -11.4%)
GM 29% vs sector 43%, OM -2% vs sector 1%
Capital turnover 0.54x
Rev growth 31%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -5.0x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 45.6/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2706 out of 7,333 stocks. IP's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
IP's quality score of 43/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -5.7% (sector avg: -2.5%), gross margins of 28.9% (sector avg: 42.5%), net margins of -3.8% (sector avg: -0.2%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 43/100, IP appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include an EV/EBITDA of 11.14x, a P/B ratio of 1.43x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/'s investment score of 20/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 31.4% vs. a sector average of 5.9% and a return on assets of -2.4% (sector: -0.1%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
IP is currently showing below-average momentum at 41/100, which may indicate weakening institutional interest or negative sentiment shifts. Revenue growth stands at 31.4% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.11 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Investors should note that declining momentum can precede further price weakness, though contrarian opportunities sometimes emerge at these levels.
IP shows good financial stability with a score of 70/100. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.11 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 134.00x (sector avg: 0.2x). This suggests manageable leverage and moderate price volatility, making it appropriate for investors seeking a balance between growth potential and capital preservation.
The short interest score of 43/100 for IP suggests somewhat elevated bearish positioning by institutional traders. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 134.00x). With a $24.2B market cap (large-cap), INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ may experience above-average volatility. Investors should consider whether the short thesis has merit or if it creates a potential short-squeeze opportunity.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.0%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ is a large-cap company in the Manufacturing sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2706 of 7,333 overall (63rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -5.7% trailing the -2.5% sector median and operating margins of -1.6% below the 1.3% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Manufacturing peers.
While IP currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the MANUFACTURING sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Manufacturing Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Investment (20) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
EV/EBITDA IN LINE WITH SECTOR BENCHMARKS
ROE 129% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN (FAVORABLE)
Gross Margin 32% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ (IP) as a Reduce with a composite score of 45.6/100 at a current price of $44.02. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (70th percentile) and quality (43th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (20th percentile) and momentum (41th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (31/100), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 45.6/100 places it at rank #2706 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $24.2B market capitalization, INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ operates at meaningful scale within the Manufacturing sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.
Revenue is growing at 31%, though momentum at the 41th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 29% (-13.6pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of -2% (-2.9pp vs sector) and net margins of -3.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of -13%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.
At a current price of $44.02, INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 43/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.
The stock currently trades at EV/EBITDA of 11.1x (near the sector median), P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 1.1x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Revenue growth of 31% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
A 4.04% dividend yield provides income while you wait, and dividends historically account for a significant portion of total equity returns.
The Reduce rating (composite 45.6/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (134% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Thin net margins of -3.8% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a High uncertainty rating to INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/. Key risk factors include significant leverage (134% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -3.8%), the combination of leverage (134% D/E) and thin margins (-3.8% net) amplifies downside risk. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (134% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -3.8%); the combination of leverage (134% D/E) and thin margins (-3.8% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 70th percentile and quality factor at the 43th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: above-average stability (70th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics; a 4.04% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-5.7%), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -2.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 45.6/100 (rank #2706 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (31/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 43/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ a meaningful economic moat, scoring 31/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -11.4% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, margin superiority, reached only 9.8/20.
The strongest moat sources are margin superiority (9.8/20) and growth durability (9.5/20). GM 29% vs sector 43%, OM -2% vs sector 1%. Rev growth 31%, 10yr history. These pillars form the core of INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0.2/20) and economic value creation (4.7/20). Capital turnover 0.54x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include robust top-line growth of 31% expanding the revenue base. The margin cascade from 29% gross to -2% operating to -3.8% net reveals the company's cost structure and reinvestment intensity. Our analysis indicates that profit quality is adequate though not exceptional, with the quality factor at the 43th percentile.
The margin profile shows gross margins of 29%, operating margins of -2%, net margins of -3.8%. Return metrics include ROE of -5.7% and ROA of -2.4%. Relative to the Manufacturing sector, gross margins are 13.6 percentage points below the sector median of 43%, and ROE of -5.7% compares to a sector median of -2.5%.
The balance sheet reflects above-average leverage with D/E of 134%, a dividend yield of 4.04%, revenue growth of 31%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO /NEW/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Overall balance sheet health is adequate for the current business environment.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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