IDYA

We rate IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. (IDYA) as a Hold with a composite score of 61.1/100 at a current price of $32.14. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in value (90th percentile) and quality (83th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (25th percentile) and stability (64th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (40/100), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Manufacturing sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 61.1/100 places it at rank #587 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.4B in market capitalization, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Manufacturing space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Momentum indicators (66th percentile) are constructive regarding the near-term price trend. Revenue growth data is unavailable, limiting our ability to confirm whether momentum is fundamentally supported.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+57.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 52% (+50.9pp vs sector) and net margins of 57.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 57%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $32.14, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 90/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 5.0x (a 78% discount to the sector median of 22.3x), EV/EBITDA of 5.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 2.7x, P/S of 13.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 1.02, conservative leverage (8% D/E), and a stability factor in the 64th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

We identify no major risk factors at this time. The company's stability factor sits at the 64th percentile with quality at the 83th percentile, both of which support our low-risk assessment. The absence of material leverage, profitability, or volatility concerns reduces the likelihood of a permanent capital loss scenario.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (8% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (64th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-8.0%), weak asset returns (ROA -7.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.

Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.

In summary, IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 61.1/100 (rank #587 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (40/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 66/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.