HIG

We rate HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (HIG) as a Buy with a composite score of 66.1/100 at a current price of $141.05. The stock scores above average across the majority of our six quantitative factors and ranks #233 out of 7,333 stocks in our universe, reflecting a favorable risk-reward profile.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in stability (82th percentile) and value (81th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (30th percentile) and momentum (59th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (64/100), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. holds a top-quartile position (#11 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 66.1/100 places it at rank #233 in our full 7,333-stock universe. With a $41.8B market capitalization, HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. operates at meaningful scale within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, providing competitive advantages in distribution, procurement, and customer reach.

Revenue is growing at 12%, though momentum at the 59th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 100% (+23.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 15% (-1.6pp vs sector) and net margins of 12.4%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 12%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $141.05, HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 81/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.3x (roughly in line with the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 10.2x (at a premium), P/B of 2.1x, P/S of 1.4x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.49, conservative leverage (23% D/E), and a stability factor in the 82th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.49 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 82th percentile and quality factor at the 80th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: healthy gross margins of 100% provide a buffer against cost pressures; conservative leverage (23% D/E) limits balance sheet risk; above-average stability (82th percentile) suggests predictable business dynamics. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 18.3%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 23%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 1.56% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC. receives a Buy rating with a composite score of 66.1/100 (rank #233 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (64/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 66/100.

Our analysis supports a constructive view on HARTFORD INSURANCE GROUP, INC.. The combination of identifiable competitive advantages, low uncertainty, and standard capital allocation creates a risk-reward profile that favors accumulation at current levels. We recommend investors consider adding this name to portfolios aligned with the stock's risk profile.