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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#1949
Positioning
Market Dominance
Retail Trade
Restaurants, Hotels, Motels
$3.7B
Mark D. Wang
Hilton Grand Vacations sells vacation ownership intervals and vacation ownership interests. As of December 31, 2021, it had 154 properties located in the United States. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
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X-AXIS: EV/EBITDA (LOWER = CHEAPER) | Y-AXIS: ROE (HIGHER = ELITE) | RED CIRCLE = HGV ANALYSIS TARGET
| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. | 73 | 85 | 89 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$IMKTA INGLES MARKETS INC | 70 | 73 | 89 | 76 | 11.3x | 4.1x | 6.9% | 4.1% | 24.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | -3.4% | 1.1% | 33.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$SGU STAR GROUP, L.P. | 69 | 82 | 79 | 63 | - | - | -25.2% | -10.6% | 28.1% | -6.3% | -5.4% | -7.8% | 6.1% | 57.0x | $396M | VS | |
$EZPW EZCORP INC | 68 | 77 | 82 | 89 | 7.2x | 4.2x | 12.0% | 6.2% | 59.1% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 52.0x | $764M | VS | |
$HTHT H World Group Ltd | 68 | 91 | 44 | 84 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd | 68 | 86 | 82 | 57 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$SBH Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | 68 | 83 | 92 | 77 | 5.1x | 2.3x | 32.0% | 6.6% | 51.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 178.0x | $934M | VS | |
$SPH SUBURBAN PROPANE PARTNERS LP | 67 | 80 | 90 | 53 | - | 13.0x | 0.4% | -3.5% | 61.7% | 2.1% | -5.7% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 190.0x | $1.2B | VS | |
$IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC /NEW/ | 67 | 63 | 81 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0 | VS | |
$ROST ROSS STORES, INC. | 67 | 63 | 55 | 83 | 25.2x | 16.5x | 34.8% | 13.3% | 28.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 26.0x | $51.6B | VS | |
$HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | 50 | 34 | 50 | 70 | 53.2x | 19.4x | 5.1% | 0.7% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% | 306.0x | $3.7B | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 21.4x | 9.1x | 9.6% | 3.6% | 37.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 0.0% | 0.7x | - | REF |
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) receives a "Hold" rating with a composite score of 50.4/100. It ranks #1949 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 3-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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Outperforming peers — winners tend to keep winning over 3-12 months
Fair valuation relative to peers
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Low volatility — smoother ride and historically better risk-adjusted returns
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Retail Trade sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
Projection based on user-defined inputs. Re-calculated daily against current market data.
Reverse DCF Framework — Mauboussin Methodology
Institutional-grade Reverse DCF analysis. This model identifies the growth hurdles embedded in current market prices. When implied growth is significantly lower than historical or projected rates, a margin of safety may exist. Re-audited daily.
No analyst ratings for HGV.
View All Ratings| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 34 | 20 | +14ALPHA |
| MOMENTUM | 70 | 77 | -7DRAG |
| VALUATION | 50 | 54 | -4NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 46 | 85 | -39DRAG |
| STABILITY | 63 | 68 | -5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 16 | 3 | +13ALPHA |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 5.1% (spread -3.4%)
GM 19% vs sector 37%, OM 9% vs sector 4%
Capital turnover 0.29x
Rev growth 5%, 9yr history
Interest coverage 1.5x, Net debt/EBITDA 37.2x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
We rate Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) as a Hold with a composite score of 50.4/100 at a current price of $47.78. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Retail Trade sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 50.4/100 places it at rank #1949 in our full universe.
The near-term outlook is constructive, with revenue growing at 5% and momentum in the 70th percentile confirming positive market sentiment. The combination of strong top-line growth and favorable price dynamics suggests the company is executing well on its growth strategy.
No Moat
High
Poor
Fair Value
Positive momentum indicates institutional accumulation.
Stable competitive position in a defensive sector.
Elevated P/E ratio of 53.2x leaves little room for execution misses.
Leverage of 306% D/E amplifies downside risk.
Below-average quality raises earnings sustainability concerns.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. represents a hold based on multi-factor quantitative performance.
Our model assigns Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. a Hold rating, with a composite score of 50.4/100 and 3 out of 5 stars. Ranked #1949 of 7,333 stocks, HGV presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to initiate new positions nor weak enough to warrant selling. Investors already holding may consider maintaining their position while monitoring for changes in the factor profile.
HGV's quality score of 34/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of 5.1% (sector avg: 9.6%), gross margins of 19.0% (sector avg: 37.3%), net margins of 1.5% (sector avg: 2.4%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
HGV's value score of 50/100 indicates the stock is fairly valued based on its current fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 53.23x, an EV/EBITDA of 19.41x, a P/B ratio of 2.69x. At this level, neither a clear bargain nor overpriced, the stock's attractiveness depends more on forward growth expectations and qualitative factors.
With an investment score of 46/100, HGV exhibits moderate growth-oriented spending. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 5.3% vs. a sector average of 3.7% and a return on assets of 0.7% (sector: 3.6%). The company appears to be balancing growth investments with capital returns, though the pace of investment may not be enough to accelerate top-line growth meaningfully.
HGV shows strong momentum characteristics with a score of 70/100. The stock has been trending above key moving averages, indicating solid demand from institutional buyers. Revenue growth stands at 5.3% year-over-year, while a beta of 1.40 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. This level of momentum typically signals sustained investor confidence and favorable near-term price action.
With a stability score of 63/100, HGV exhibits average financial resilience. Key stability metrics include a beta of 1.40 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 306.00x (sector avg: 0.7x). While the balance sheet is not a major concern, the stock is subject to typical market volatility and may experience sharper drawdowns during risk-off episodes.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s short interest score of 16/100 reveals significant bearish positioning, suggesting institutional investors are actively betting against the stock. Specific risk factors include above-average market sensitivity (beta: 1.40), elevated leverage (D/E: 306.00x). At $3.7B (mid-cap), HGV carries meaningful risk and is best suited for investors with high risk tolerance who have thoroughly evaluated the bear thesis.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. is a mid-cap company in the Retail Trade sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #1949 of 7,333 overall (73rd percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of 5.1% trailing the 9.6% sector median and operating margins of 9.0% above the 4.4% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Retail Trade peers.
While HGV currently exhibits a HOLD profile, superior opportunities exist within the RETAIL TRADE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Retail Trade Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
Key factor gap
Momentum (70) vs Short Int. (16) — closing this gap could shift the rating.
EV/EBITDA 113% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
ROE 47% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Gross Margin 49% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
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