HG

We rate Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) as a Hold with a composite score of 64.6/100 at a current price of $30.55. The stock presents a mixed quantitative picture — neither compelling enough to warrant new accumulation nor weak enough to justify selling for existing holders. Our factors are split, and the overall profile suggests patience is warranted.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (83th percentile) and value (71th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (29th percentile) and stability (56th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (58/100), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation.

Key items to watch: quarterly earnings execution and sector-level competitive dynamics. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. holds an above-average position (#14 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 64.6/100 places it at rank #307 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $1.6B in market capitalization, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

The outlook is moderately positive, with revenue expanding at 14% and favorable momentum (83th percentile) reflecting constructive market sentiment. The business shows steady execution, though the growth rate is below the levels typically associated with high-conviction growth stories. Momentum confirmation provides support for the current price level.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 37% (-39.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 25% (+8.0pp vs sector) and net margins of 24.5%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of 66%. This efficient conversion suggests well-controlled operating costs and limited margin leakage between the gross and net levels.

At a current price of $30.55, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals. Our value factor score of 71/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The stock screens as attractively priced on a majority of these measures, suggesting the market may be underappreciating the underlying fundamentals.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 4.4x (a 63% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 4.5x (discounted to peers), P/B of 1.1x, P/S of 1.1x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a Low uncertainty rating to Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.. The company exhibits strong financial stability with a beta of 0.47, conservative leverage (6% D/E), and a stability factor in the 56th percentile. The predictable nature of the business model and solid financial position reduce the range of potential outcomes, giving us confidence in our fair value estimate.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: low beta of 0.47 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 56th percentile and quality factor at the 60th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

Key risk mitigants include: conservative leverage (6% D/E) limits balance sheet risk. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile is favorable for long-term investors.

We rate Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s capital allocation as Exemplary. Management demonstrates a strong track record of balancing reinvestment with shareholder returns, evidenced by returns on equity of 25.8%, disciplined leverage (6% D/E), best-in-class net margins of 24.5%. Exemplary allocators typically generate returns on equity above 20% while maintaining debt-to-equity below 50% — Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. meets this high bar.

The balance sheet remains conservatively managed, providing financial flexibility for opportunistic investments while maintaining a margin of safety for shareholders. We note that the combination of 7.4% return on assets and controlled leverage suggests management is deploying capital at rates well above the cost of capital — the hallmark of exemplary stewardship.

In summary, Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. receives a Hold rating with a composite score of 64.6/100 (rank #307 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (58/100, trend: stable), Low uncertainty, and Exemplary capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 60/100.

Our analysis supports a neutral stance on Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.. While the quantitative profile is not weak enough to warrant selling, it lacks the multi-factor strength required for a buy recommendation. Existing holders should maintain positions and monitor for catalysts — either fundamental improvement or valuation compression — that would shift the risk-reward balance.