HCI

We rate HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) as a Reduce with a composite score of 43.5/100 at a current price of $156.73. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.

The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (56th percentile) and stability (49th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in investment (26th percentile) and quality (28th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a Narrow Moat rating (49/100), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation.

Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.

HCI Group, Inc. holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 43.5/100 places it at rank #3048 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $2.5B in market capitalization, HCI Group, Inc. is a mid-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.

Revenue is growing at 5%, though momentum at the 56th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.

The margin cascade tells an important story: gross margins of 0% (-76.5pp vs sector) narrow to operating margins of 31% (+13.8pp vs sector) and net margins of 25.8%, yielding a gross-to-net conversion rate of N/A%. The significant margin erosion from gross to net suggests elevated operating expenses, high interest costs, or other structural drags that warrant monitoring.

At a current price of $156.73, HCI Group, Inc. is trading near fair value based on current fundamentals. Our value factor score of 48/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. Valuation metrics are mixed, with no strong signal of mispricing in either direction.

The stock currently trades at a P/E of 9.1x (a 24% discount to the sector median of 11.9x), EV/EBITDA of 6.6x (near the sector median), P/B of 2.4x, P/S of 2.5x. The below-sector P/E suggests possible undervaluation or the market pricing in near-term headwinds.

We assign a High uncertainty rating to HCI Group, Inc.. Key risk factors include significant leverage (175% debt-to-equity), weak quality scores (28th percentile), low beta of 0.29 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. The wide range of potential outcomes widens our fair value estimate and increases the possibility of permanent capital impairment. Investors considering this name should size positions accordingly and demand a meaningful margin of safety before initiating.

Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (175% debt-to-equity); weak quality scores (28th percentile); low beta of 0.29 — while defensive, this may indicate limited upside participation in bull markets. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 49th percentile and quality factor at the 28th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.

We identify limited risk mitigants at this time, which contributes to our high uncertainty assessment. Investors should monitor for improvement in balance sheet metrics, margin stability, and business predictability that could warrant a downgrade in our risk assessment over time.

We rate HCI Group, Inc.'s capital allocation as Standard. Management has shown adequate — though not exceptional — stewardship of shareholder capital. Returns on equity stand at 26.0%, and the balance sheet is managed within acceptable parameters (D/E: 175%). Exemplary allocators typically sustain ROE above 20% and D/E below 50%; HCI Group, Inc. falls short on at least one dimension.

There is room for improvement in optimizing the capital structure or enhancing shareholder returns. The 0.83% dividend yield provides some income return, but the overall capital allocation framework would benefit from either higher reinvestment returns, improved balance sheet efficiency, or increased shareholder distributions. We will monitor for signs of strategic improvement that could warrant an upgrade.

In summary, HCI Group, Inc. receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 43.5/100 (rank #3048 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a Narrow Moat (49/100, trend: stable), High uncertainty, and Standard capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 41/100.

Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HCI Group, Inc. at this time. The combination of the current quantitative profile, high uncertainty, and standard capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.