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Verdict
Quantitative factor alignment verified for current market regime.
Quant Score
Rank
#2511
Positioning
Market Dominance
Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate
Banking
$699M
Craig M. Dwight
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank. It provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans. It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan.
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Dates updated upon official exchange announcement.
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| Stock | Rating | Score▼ | Quality | Value | Momentum | P/E | EV/EBITDA | ROE | ROA | Gross Mgn | Op Mgn | Net Mgn | Rev Growth | Div Yield | D/E | Mkt Cap | AUDIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
$SII SPROTT INC. | 75 | 91 | 87 | 98 | - | - | 15.7% | 12.8% | 48.9% | 37.0% | 28.8% | 14.9% | 2.5% | 0.0x | $1.1B | VS | |
$PUK PRUDENTIAL PLC | 73 | 88 | 97 | 80 | - | - | 13.2% | 1.4% | 100.0% | 97.0% | 23.8% | 11.8% | 2.7% | 5.0x | $21.5B | VS | |
$NMR NOMURA HOLDINGS INC | 72 | 81 | 92 | 87 | - | - | 9.9% | 0.6% | 84.5% | 70.0% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 0.0% | 923.0x | $18.3B | VS | |
$PSLV Sprott Physical Silver Trust | 69 | 82 | 80 | 98 | - | - | 17.3% | 17.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1643.8% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $5.0B | VS | |
$UFCS UNITED FIRE GROUP INC | 68 | 81 | 93 | 76 | 5.0x | 3.5x | 13.2% | 4.1% | 99.9% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 16.0x | $775M | VS | |
$SLF SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC | 68 | 83 | 95 | 63 | - | - | 12.6% | 0.9% | 32.0% | 31.3% | 7.9% | -12.9% | 4.3% | 24.0x | $37.8B | VS | |
$CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. | 68 | 75 | 63 | 77 | 21.3x | 15.7x | 24.0% | 13.7% | 41.7% | 32.4% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 1.1% | 30.0x | $25.7B | VS | |
$PHYS Sprott Physical Gold Trust | 67 | 64 | 82 | 91 | - | - | 22.5% | 22.8% | 101.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 138.9% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $8.4B | VS | |
$VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. | 67 | 69 | 77 | 80 | - | - | 8.8% | 5.8% | 98.7% | 75.7% | 88.5% | 17.6% | 4.3% | 34.0x | $2.2B | VS | |
$GLDM World Gold Trust | 66 | 54 | 85 | 92 | 11.3x | 11.3x | - | 27.1% | 100.0% | 98.9% | 459.9% | 333.4% | 0.0% | 0.0x | $43.7B | VS | |
$HBNC HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ | 47 | 34 | 34 | 59 | - | - | -24.1% | -2.4% | - | -83.4% | -39.6% | 66.5% | 4.0% | 916.0x | $699M | ||
| SECTOR BENCH | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9x | 7.8x | 8.9% | 1.2% | 76.5% | 17.0% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 0.5x | - | REF |
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ (HBNC) receives a "Reduce" rating with a composite score of 46.8/100. It ranks #2511 out of 7,333 stocks in our coverage universe and carries a 2-star rating. Ratings are driven by a 6-factor quantitative model measuring quality, value, momentum, investment, stability, and short interest.
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YOY expansion rate
Operating efficiency
Bottom-line conversion
Equity capital efficiency
Asset base utilization
Financial leverage load
Direct cash return
Craig M. Dwight
Chief Executive Officer
Labor Force
910
34
36
44
Audit Verdict: Lower quality and stability scores may indicate governance concerns.
No recent insider transactions available for HBNC
In-line with peers — no strong momentum signal
Expensive relative to fundamentals — limited margin of safety
Weak fundamentals — higher risk of value trap
Average volatility — neutral timing signal
Moderate investment profile
Mid-range overall rating
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Relative valuation derived from Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector benchmarks. Model weights: EV/EBITDA (40%), P/B (35%), P/S (25%). Re-calculated daily.
No analyst ratings for HBNC.
View All RatingsMaterial decline in asset turnover efficiency detected
High margin volatility — erratic forensic earnings quality
| Factor | Global | Sector | Tilt |
|---|---|---|---|
| PROFITABILITY | 34 | 64 | -30DRAG |
| MOMENTUM | 59 | 64 | -5NEUTRAL |
| VALUATION | 34 | 31 | +3NEUTRAL |
| INVESTMENT | 36 | 65 | -29DRAG |
| STABILITY | 44 | 39 | +5NEUTRAL |
| SHORT INT | 61 | 75 | -14DRAG |
Global = full universe. Sector = relative to industry peers. Positive tilt indicates idiosyncratic strength.
ROIC -59.1% vs WACC 8.5% (spread -67.6%)
GM N/A vs sector 77%, OM -83% vs sector 17%
Capital turnover 0.24x
Rev growth 66%, 10yr history
Interest coverage -8.3x
Composite assessment of profitability, capital efficiency, and financial strength. Top-tier entities demonstrate sustainable cash flow generation and elite competitive moats.
Profit generated per dollar of shareholder equity
Efficiency of asset utilization
Pricing power and cost efficiency
Core business profitability
Bottom-line profitability
The Quality factor evaluates the persistence and magnitude of realized cash flows. Companies with scores >70 exhibit superior pricing power and structural financial resilience through diverse economic regimes.
Our uncertainty rating tracks the predictability of future cash flows and potential for permanent capital loss. Moderate visibility with standard industry cyclicality.
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ receives a Reduce rating from our analysis, with a composite score of 46.8/100 and 2 out of 5 stars, ranking #2511 out of 7,333 stocks. HBNC's factor profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting the stock may underperform going forward. Existing holders may want to consider trimming positions or tightening stop-losses.
HBNC's quality score of 34/100 is below average, suggesting challenges with profitability or capital efficiency. The company reports a return on equity of -24.1% (sector avg: 8.9%), net margins of -39.6% (sector avg: 21.5%). Investors should examine whether management is actively addressing these weaknesses or if they reflect structural industry headwinds.
With a value score of 34/100, HBNC appears somewhat expensive relative to its fundamentals. Key valuation metrics include a P/B ratio of 1.39x. Investors paying a premium here are likely betting on above-average growth or margin expansion to justify current prices.
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/'s investment score of 36/100 suggests limited reinvestment activity. Key growth metrics include revenue growth of 66.5% vs. a sector average of 10.8% and a return on assets of -2.4% (sector: 1.2%). While this can be positive for mature, cash-generative businesses returning capital to shareholders, it may also signal a lack of growth opportunities or management conservatism.
HBNC demonstrates moderate momentum with a score of 59/100, suggesting a neutral price trend without strong directional conviction. Revenue growth stands at 66.5% year-over-year, while a beta of 0.92 reflects its sensitivity to broader market moves. Moderate momentum may indicate the stock is consolidating or transitioning between trends, warranting close monitoring of upcoming catalysts.
HBNC's stability score of 44/100 signals elevated volatility and/or leverage concerns. Key stability metrics include a beta of 0.92 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 916.00x (sector avg: 0.5x). Investors should be prepared for wider-than-average price swings and consider position sizing accordingly to manage portfolio risk.
HBNC carries a short interest score of 61/100, indicating moderate short selling activity. This is a neutral reading — not enough to signal systemic bearishness, but worth monitoring. Specific risk factors include elevated leverage (D/E: 916.00x), small-cap liquidity risk. At $699M market cap (small-cap), HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ offers reasonable institutional liquidity.
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.0%, placing it among the higher-yielding stocks in its peer group. This compares to a sector average dividend yield of 1.9%. A yield this high can provide meaningful income, but investors should verify the payout is sustainable by examining the payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and any history of dividend cuts.
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ is a small-cap company in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, ranked #0 of 50 in its sector (100th percentile) and #2511 of 7,333 overall (66th percentile). Key comparisons include ROE of -24.1% trailing the 8.9% sector median and operating margins of -83.4% below the 17.0% sector average. This top-quartile standing reflects exceptional competitive strength relative to Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate peers.
While HBNC currently exhibits a REDUCE profile, superior opportunities exist within the FINANCE, INSURANCE, AND REAL ESTATE sector. Our model identifies several "Strong Buy" candidates with higher quality scores and more attractive valuations among direct industry competitors.
View Top Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate Alpha →Quant Factor Profile
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Improvement in Quality (34) would have the largest impact on the composite score.
ROE 370% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Op. Margin 590% BELOW SECTOR MEDIAN
Debt/Equity 186839% ABOVE SECTOR MEDIAN
AUDIT DATA AS OF SEP 30, 2025 (Q2 FY2025)
We rate HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ (HBNC) as a Reduce with a composite score of 46.8/100 at a current price of $17.18. The quantitative profile shows weakness across multiple dimensions, suggesting limited upside potential and elevated risk of underperformance relative to peers over the next 12 months.
The rating is primarily driven by strength in momentum (59th percentile) and stability (44th percentile), which together account for the majority of the composite score. Offsetting weakness in quality (34th percentile) and value (34th percentile) tempers our overall conviction. We assign a No Moat rating (25/100), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation.
Key items to watch: balance sheet deleveraging progress; sustainability of the current growth rate; the path to profitability. Any material change in these dynamics could warrant a reassessment of our rating. The moat trend is stable, which suggests the competitive landscape is stable for now.
HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ holds a top-quartile position (#0 of 50) within the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, based on our composite quantitative scoring across quality, value, momentum, and stability factors. The composite score of 46.8/100 places it at rank #2511 in our full 7,333-stock universe. At $699M in market capitalization, HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ is a small-cap player in the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate space, which limits certain scale advantages but may allow for more agile strategic execution.
Revenue is growing at 66%, though momentum at the 59th percentile suggests the market has not yet fully recognized this trajectory. This potential disconnect between fundamental improvement and market recognition could represent an opportunity for patient investors if the growth trend persists.
Available margin data shows operating margins of -83%. Incomplete margin data limits our ability to fully assess the cost structure and margin trajectory, though the available metrics provide a partial view of operating efficiency.
At a current price of $17.18, HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ is trading at a premium to fundamental value. Our value factor score of 34/100 reflects a composite assessment across multiple valuation metrics including price-to-earnings, price-to-book, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales ratios relative to both sector peers and the broader market. The premium valuation implies the market is pricing in significant future growth or quality improvements that are not yet fully reflected in current fundamentals.
The stock currently trades at P/B of 1.4x, P/S of 2.8x. We evaluate these multiples in the context of both absolute levels and sector-relative positioning to form our valuation view.
Revenue growth of 66% confirms the business is expanding its addressable market — growth at this level typically supports multiple expansion and attracts institutional capital.
A 4.04% dividend yield provides income while you wait, and dividends historically account for a significant portion of total equity returns.
The Reduce rating (composite 46.8/100) reflects multi-factor weakness, and historically, stocks in this scoring range have underperformed the market by a meaningful margin.
Elevated leverage (916% D/E) amplifies downside risk and limits management's financial flexibility in adverse scenarios.
Thin net margins of -39.6% provide limited cushion against cost pressures, competitive pricing, or macroeconomic headwinds — even small changes in costs could swing the company to a loss.
We assign a Very High uncertainty rating to HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/. The stock exhibits multiple compounding risk factors: significant leverage (916% debt-to-equity), current negative profitability (net margin -39.6%), weak quality scores (34th percentile). The extreme uncertainty around future cash flows makes precise valuation difficult, and the range of outcomes is exceptionally wide. Only investors with high risk tolerance and extended time horizons should consider this name.
Specific risk factors that inform our assessment include: significant leverage (916% debt-to-equity); current negative profitability (net margin -39.6%); weak quality scores (34th percentile); the combination of leverage (916% D/E) and thin margins (-39.6% net) amplifies downside risk. Each of these factors independently widens the distribution of potential outcomes, and in combination they create a risk profile that demands careful position sizing. The stability factor at the 44th percentile and quality factor at the 34th percentile provide a quantitative summary of the overall risk landscape.
Key risk mitigants include: a 4.04% dividend yield anchors total return. These factors partially offset the identified risks and provide downside protection in adverse scenarios. On balance, the risk-reward profile warrants caution and disciplined position management.
We rate HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/'s capital allocation as Poor. Key concerns include low returns on equity (-24.1%), elevated leverage (916% D/E), negative profitability, weak asset returns (ROA -2.4%). Exemplary capital allocators generate ROE above 20% and maintain conservative leverage — HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ significantly underperforms these benchmarks, raising questions about management's ability to create shareholder value.
Investors should scrutinize management's reinvestment decisions and balance sheet trajectory before committing capital. Poor capital allocation often compounds over time: overlevered balance sheets limit strategic flexibility, while low returns on capital destroy shareholder value. We would need to see sustained improvement in profitability metrics and balance sheet discipline before considering an upgrade.
In summary, HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ receives a Reduce rating with a composite score of 46.8/100 (rank #2511 of 7,333). Our quantitative framework assigns a No Moat (25/100, trend: stable), Very High uncertainty, and Poor capital allocation. The average factor score across quality, value, momentum, stability, and investment is 41/100.
Our analysis does not support a constructive view on HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ at this time. The combination of limited competitive advantages, very high uncertainty, and poor capital allocation suggests unfavorable risk-reward at current levels. We recommend investors avoid new positions and existing holders consider reducing exposure.
Analysis derived from Blank Capital Research quantitative terminal. For informational purposes only. No trade solicitation. Past performance not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified advisor.
We do not assign HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ a meaningful economic moat, scoring 25/100 on our composite assessment. The ROIC-WACC spread of -67.6% is the primary signal of economic value creation. Current fundamentals do not demonstrate the kind of durable competitive advantages — such as superior returns on invested capital, margin superiority, or reinvestment efficiency — that would protect the company from competitive erosion over the long term. The highest-scoring pillar, growth durability, reached only 11.8/20.
The strongest moat sources are growth durability (11.8/20) and margin superiority (6.5/20). Rev growth 66%, 10yr history. GM N/A vs sector 77%, OM -83% vs sector 17%. These pillars form the core of HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/'s competitive identity and are the primary drivers of excess returns in our framework.
Areas of relative weakness include reinvestment efficiency (0/20) and financial resilience (2.5/20). Capital turnover 0.24x. Improvement in these areas could meaningfully widen the moat over time, while deterioration would be an early warning of competitive erosion.
Our moat trend assessment is Stable. Multi-year ROIC and operating margin trajectories show neither meaningful improvement nor deterioration, suggesting the competitive position is steady. We expect HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/'s moat profile to remain largely unchanged absent a material shift in return on capital or industry dynamics.
Key profit drivers include robust top-line growth of 66% expanding the revenue base. Our analysis indicates that profit quality raises some durability concerns, with the quality factor at the 34th percentile.
The margin profile shows operating margins of -83%, net margins of -39.6%. Return metrics include ROE of -24.1% and ROA of -2.4%. Relative to the Finance, Insurance, And Real Estate sector, sector comparison data is limited, and ROE of -24.1% compares to a sector median of 8.9%.
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with D/E of 916%, which may limit financial flexibility, a dividend yield of 4.04%, revenue growth of 66%. The sector median D/E is 0%, putting HORIZON BANCORP INC /IN/ at higher leverage than the typical peer. Elevated leverage in combination with the current margin profile warrants close monitoring for any deterioration in debt-servicing capacity.
Below-average quality (34th percentile) raises durability concerns about the fundamental profile and increases the risk of negative earnings surprises.
Above 50MA
37.18%
Net New Highs
+51081
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:HBNC) is largely owned by institutional investors, holding a 75% stake in the company. This significant ownership suggests that the stock price is sensitive to their trading activities and movements. While institutional investment can indicate credibility, individual investors should also consider the company's past earnings trajectory and analyst recommendations.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:HBNC) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, exceeding prior performance estimates with an annualized return on average assets above 1.6% and a net interest margin of 4.29%. The company highlighted excellent loan growth, credit quality, and successful balance sheet repositioning, focusing on organic core deposit generation and commercial lending. Horizon anticipates continued strong performance in 2026 with mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth and an improved net interest margin outlook.
Horizon Bancorp Inc. IN significantly increased its holdings in Horizon Bancorp (NASDAQ:HBNC) during Q3, purchasing an additional 221,620 shares to reach a total of 582,099 shares valued at $9.32 million. This move makes HBNC the sixth-largest position in Horizon Bancorp Inc. IN's portfolio. Despite mixed analyst ratings and missing Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, Horizon Bancorp (IN) continues to pay a quarterly dividend, offering a 3.7% yield to investors.
Horizon Bank (NASDAQ: HBNC) has appointed Pam Zarazee as Senior Vice President, Director of Human Resources. She will lead HR functions including talent management, employee engagement, and compensation, joining the bank's Senior Leadership Team. Zarazee brings experience in employee development, succession planning, HR technology, and M&A integration to her new role.
Horizon Bancorp (NASDAQ:HBNC) has announced a dividend payment of $0.16 per share, resulting in a 3.5% yield. Despite a long history of dividend distribution, the company's latest earnings report indicates insufficient coverage for dividends, raising concerns about sustainability. Analysts project higher EPS and a 33% payout ratio in the next three years, but past EPS declines and recent share issuances suggest limited dividend growth potential.